Upstate/Eastern New York

[CNY-WXFREAK]

8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

LR looks terrible again for anything substantial synoptically or even LES after this weekend. KBUF sits at 22" for the month while just south the totals are almost triple that amount and in some cases quadrupled. This arctic pattern really messed up the snowfall chances going forward and my guess is average will be tough to get to this year. If I didnt just buy this house 1 1/2 years ago I would move south of Buffalo in a heartbeat. 

Live by the models, die by the models. Brutally cold air rules, for the foreseeable future at least.  I also believe there will be many chances for synoptic snows more so than LES, at least where I am, IMO.  Georgian Bay is about to close for the season cause it should be frozen by the end of next week. I don't think we should even be included in the Advisory that's up now. Last event, 24-30" forecasted, actual 6", so 6-8 is forecasted so I'll go with 1-2" at best.  NNW wind flow is not gonna do it for my backyard anyway, may KFZY does better on a 340 wind vector cause I know we don't.  They'll be one from Pulaski down through Parish and further S&E to the hills of Madison county, and we'll be sucking exhaust, from this one to our east and a second, will be from Oswego through Fulton on through Western Onondaga county straight to the SE from there, then through the hills of S. Onondaga then Cortland county. We'll also be sucking exhaust from the 2nd band to my West, so this event should be fun!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

I know Ontario doesn't freeze but in order for Ontario tro produce proficiently, it usually does better with some sort of connection, but like I said, GB should be gone after next week, so we'll have to rely just on Ontario unless Huron helps out.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

We also now have something, that hasn't been around for a little while at least, and that's the STJ.  When the SOuthern branch get involved things can get fun real fast that's for sure.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

The day 6 event is still there on the 06Z, and I think its right where it should be, as the GFS has a horrific SE bias when it comes to EC cyclogenesis.  I know the Euro shifted to the East a bit but it anyone looked at its upper lvl features, as they didn't even look anywhere near right and you'll see what Im sayin if you go look at its H500 for Tuesday into Wed of next week.

[Thinksnow18]

6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The day 6 event is still there on the 06Z, and I think its right where it should be, as the GFS has a horrific SE bias when it comes to EC cyclogenesis.  I know the Euro shifted to the East a bit but it anyone looked at its upper lvl features, as they didn't even look anywhere near right and you'll see what Im sayin if you go look at its H500 for Tuesday into Wed of next week.

Yeah I noticed the goofus has a great storm forthe fish in the Atlantic but I was surprised to see the euro move east as well. There is time to bring it back west but will it ultimately phase with the northern stream energy is the question. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

The New England crew with their 40 Mets who post in that forum, threw the Euro out and said the GFS looks good for this time frame.  They said something about the UKMET but I haven't seen it as of yet.  The Euro just looked funky last night for some reason.

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...2 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times. Cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero will cause
  frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

 

Tim123 was right again! Lol

[CNY-WXFREAK]

lol, KBGM's map.  No collaboration whatsoever with KBUF! How the heck can KBUF put a map out with 6-8" for So, Oswego but then KBGM has <1" for Northern Onondaga so how does that even equate?

[wolfie09]

They like the western part of the county, closer to the lake..Fulton is barely in the 6”-8” and I’m about 9-10 miles from Lake Ontario..

 

with snow first near the
Niagara/Orleans County border early Saturday...then slowly pushing
onshore through Monroe to western Oswego Counties through the
afternoon and evening hours of Saturday. Amounts will generally
average 3 to 5 inches along the lakeshore counties...with narrow
bands upwards to 6 to 7 inches where an upstream connection to
Georgian Bay may occur

[CNY-WXFREAK]

6 minutes ago, vortmax said:

 

Tim123 was right again! Lol

I didn't know the forecast verified yet ? Or is it about the advisories posted? If so, KBUF should have a standing LES advisory for all the counties along the lakeshore and East to the Tug because thats how many times their issued, and they verify maybe 1/3 of the time. Their banking on a Lake plume that develops over the water, which will then get push Southward towards the shore, so to me its a toss up of where the heaviest snow will be because not everybody along the SS will get even remotely close to 6-8".  I'm calling for 1-3" here, because I already can see the scenario playing out, and it doesn't look good to me! I hope KBUF is right and everyone get a nice dumping but it not probable.

[DeltaT13]

22 minutes ago, vortmax said:

 

Tim123 was right again! Lol

Lolol. Just because they put out another worthless blanket WWA doesn’t mean he is right.  I could have told you they would pop these advisories too, but it doesn’t mean it will actually happen.  Him and the nws haven’t got a single south shore forecast right this whole winter. I still haven’t even met warning criteria a single time this winter.  A couple inches here, a couple inches there. Just nickels and dimes.  And I’m not complaining but forecasts have not verified well at all this year. 

This isn’t rocket science, if the nws sees a northerly component to the wind with good enough delta t’s they drop an advisory. Rinse and repeat. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

RGEM latest run and it looks pretty good to me right now with Niagara and Ontario counties getting the lion share of the lake snows as they push onshore. 

The HRRR through 06Z Saturday and I don't know what to make of it, lol. It has a Meso low that actually tracks from lake Erie up through Niagara Falls on NEward and jumps into lake Ontario and strengthens.  Very weird to see that happen, to bad there's no radar that we can to watch it on!

This is valid for now and it matches up well with current radar.

8PM tonight the meso is moving towards Toronto, in Western LO!

I'll be impressed if it can predict and track these meso lows.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

We still have this pixie dust falling and it has been falling for almost 24hrs now and alls its doing is laying down a thin glaze of ice. The salt the DOT is dropping doesnt even work with temps in the single digits to low teens.

[vortmax]

I should clarify... He was right regarding the watches/advisories. Dave didn't think BUF should put them up and Delta thinks Tim is a snow weenie. For NE Monroe and Wayne ctys. he's been pretty accurate. The airport and west side hasn't gotten nearly as much of the white stuff. 

I think this event will over perform somewhere on the south shore due to the meso potential. Guess we'll see. 

 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

12 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I should clarify... He was right regarding the watches/advisories. Dave didn't think BUF should put them up and Delta thinks Tim is a snow weenie. For NE Monroe and Wayne ctys. he's been pretty accurate. The airport and west side hasn't gotten nearly as much of the white stuff. 

I think this event will over perform somewhere on the south shore due to the meso potential. Guess we'll see. 

 

If you call for something to happen enough times its bound to come true sooner or later, lol! I find it funny actually, but that's just me.  I dd however ask him to refrain from using words like will and whatnot because it sound pompous, as if you know for sure what's going to happen. Its a weather forum, a good one at that and very laid back and laxed. I thiink we're the only sub-forum without moderation, lol, cause we don't need one!

[vortmax]

2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

 I thiink we're the only sub-forum without moderation, lol, cause we don't need one!

Not yet... Lol

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Your in Wayne county right, Vort? Or Ontario? Anyway, is it doing anything by you?

[rochesterdave]

50 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I didn't know the forecast verified yet ? Or is it about the advisories posted? If so, KBUF should have a standing LES advisory for all the counties along the lakeshore and East to the Tug because thats how many times their issued, and they verify maybe 1/3 of the time. Their banking on a Lake plume that develops over the water, which will then get push Southward towards the shore, so to me its a toss up of where the heaviest snow will be because not everybody along the SS will get even remotely close to 6-8".  I'm calling for 1-3" here, because I already can see the scenario playing out, and it doesn't look good to me! I hope KBUF is right and everyone get a nice dumping but it not probable

 

 

Whenever a 'lake plume' settles south, it's good for about an inch. It decreases in strength as soon as it loses its source. Buf is always calling for inflated totals under this scenario. 

The way the south shore can do well, is with upstream connection or lakeshore convergence. 

Its basically unforecastable. Might be one of the last US regions that can't be forecast well. 

[rochesterdave]

Oh, I forgot. A meso low can also give the south shore warning amounts. Convergence and meso's kind of live together. 

This atmosphere isn't bad for that. The wind might be a bit too northerly. But it usually doesn't go as much north as fcst. RGEM would give someone in N Orleans 25". Lol. It's happened many times before. Fake snow. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Updated snow projections..

What in the world are they doing?!?!?!  Start off with 6-8 then drop it to 1-2 and now jack it back up to 4-6.  No advisory, AFD only talks about 1-2.  

[vortmax]

21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Your in Wayne county right, Vort? Or Ontario? Anyway, is it doing anything by you?

Town of Ontario in Wayne County. Flurries here. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, vortmax said:

 

Tim123 was right again! Lol

He says its going to snow for Rochester everyday. Eventually he will be right once, he's been wrong 10 times this year already.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

 

 

 Whenever a 'lake plume' settles south, it's good for about an inch. It decreases in strength as soon as it loses its source. Buf is always calling for inflated totals under this scenario. 

The way the south shore can do well, is with upstream connection or lakeshore convergence. 

Its basically unforecastable. Might be one of the last US regions that can't be forecast well. 

Im sure its very difficult to forecast for the South Shore and a few other areas along the lake shore.  I personally think it has a lot to do with the way the south shore is shaped as I think there's much more convergence on the Niagara Escarpment due to its concavity which bends outward towards the Lake while the opposite is true on the SE end of the lake where the area is convex which bends inward, but this is a personal theory as I did a paper on the geography and topography of the area while in school.       

[BuffaloWeather]

It's going to be a really close call for Hamburg tonight for some big time snow. 

For tonight...Snow will focus in rather narrow band in a WSW
flow behind the mesolow with locally heavy snows with snowfall
rates over 2 inches an hour possible. Expect the band to
initially focus from Ripley to Perrysburg this evening, then
strengthen as it lifts northward roughly to a Dunkirk to Hamburg
line late tonight. The inland extent will be limited due to the
modest flow, but may extend into western portions of Wyoming
county at times. The flow will continue to keep lake effect snow
mainly over the open waters of Lake Ontario, though it may clip
Niagara and Orleans counties.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

What in the world are they doing?!?!?!  Start off with 6-8 then drop it to 1-2 and now jack it back up to 4-6.  No advisory, AFD only talks about 1-2.  

It'll change today for sure after the 12Z run as they hug models output way to much.

[tim123]

For all the talk of Rochester not getting snow we do get more than buffalo on average

[CNY-WXFREAK]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's going to be a really close call for Hamburg tonight for some big time snow. 

For tonight...Snow will focus in rather narrow band in a WSW
flow behind the mesolow with locally heavy snows with snowfall
rates over 2 inches an hour possible. Expect the band to
initially focus from Ripley to Perrysburg this evening, then
strengthen as it lifts northward roughly to a Dunkirk to Hamburg
line late tonight. The inland extent will be limited due to the
modest flow, but may extend into western portions of Wyoming
county at times. The flow will continue to keep lake effect snow
mainly over the open waters of Lake Ontario, though it may clip
Niagara and Orleans counties.

First I wanna see the band actually come to fruition, cause their banking on this mesolow thats progged to form and drop all this snow.  I think their risking a big time bust if you ask me. I asked this question yesterday, maybe I should send a tweet and ask them how exactly are they forecasting such an anomalous mesoscale event so precisely?  If this meso low doesn't form what happens next?

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

First I wanna see the band actually come to fruition, cause their banking on this mesolow thats progged to form and drop all this snow.  I think their risking a big time bust if you ask me. I asked this question yesterday, maybe I should send a tweet and ask them how exactly are they forecasting such an anomalous mesoscale event so precisely?  If this meso low doesn't form what happens next?

No I agree with you. It shows up well on the NAM and actually gets to KBUF. The other models show it quite a bit farther south. The LES directly follows the passage of that mesolow. We should be seeing it show up on radar sometime this afternoon. Either way it should be fun to watch unfold! 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

No I agree with you. It shows up well on the NAM and actually gets to KBUF. The other models show it quite a bit farther south. The LES directly follows the passage of that mesolow. We should be seeing it show up on radar sometime this afternoon. Either way it should be fun to watch unfold! 

I agree!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

And there she goes, just coming into view with a nice spin already.  Lets see how she behaves.  The band that's running parallel to the shore right now looks intense so wherever that heads, it should drop some heavy snow!