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Look at that band on Michigan, you can see how long it is and its moving up the center of the lake and if you look close enough, you can see 2 Meso's on Michigan and one on Superior.  This band actually looks like its going to effect Marquette, and I don't ever think I've seen that before. The one on Superior looked extremely intense before it moved over the open waters and disappeared. I think this is what KBUF is expecting to develop on Erie and move ashore but I don't know how their predicting a meso low to form, so I guess we'll see if it actually comes to fruition, I'll be impressed.

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4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Look at that band on Michigan, you can see how long it is and its moving up the center of the lake and if you look close enough, you can see 2 Meso's on Michigan and one on Superior.  This band actually looks like its going to effect Marquette, and I don't ever think I've seen that before. The one on Superior looked extremely intense before it moved over the open waters and disappeared. I think this is what KBUF is expecting to develop on Erie and move ashore but I don't know how their predicting a meso low to form, so I guess we'll see if it actually comes to fruition, I'll be impressed.

Southerly flow lake effect? Don't think I've ever seen that either.

Tab2FileL.png?1819da5ad8071252e2449301a34cb6c1

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31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Southerly flow lake effect? Don't think I've ever seen that either.

Tab2FileL.png?1819da5ad8071252e2449301a34cb6c1

I think southerly LES is unusual...I noticed this (attached GFS output, NAM shows similar) up in Onrtario for the upcoming weekend Clipper...not sure that it's truly LES, probably lake enhanced in association with the Clipper? 

IMG_2143.PNG

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2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

LES Warnings up for WNY.  15-20" for Southern Erie and Chautauqua Ridge.  How does this jive with their map though?  Map shows 6-8" right on the edge of BUF metro and yet no advisory even though the map show possible low end warning level snowfall?  I'm so confused! 

Simple, map is wrong!

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It's not snowing hard but this steady feed of fine crystalline snow with temps near zero really makes roads slippery, even the interstates. Road crews keep throwing salt... making everything a slippery mess with the steady feed of snow and cold temps.  Probably because they've been told to. Was driving in Oswego county yesterday in Mexico...a little sand at intersections but the dry snow made for wide wheel paths on blacktop which IMO is much safer to drive in. But no,,,the safety Nazis have DPW crews dumping salt everywhere and making road conditions worse.  Just a pet peeve of mine because they are wasting money making road conditions generally worse.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

It's not snowing hard but this steady feed of fine crystalline snow with temps near zero really makes roads slippery, even the interstates. Road crews keep throwing salt... making everything a slippery mess with the steady feed of snow and cold temps.  Probably because they've been told to. Was driving in Oswego county yesterday in Mexico...a little sand at intersections but the dry snow made for wide wheel paths on blacktop which IMO is much safer to drive in. But no,,,the safety Nazis have DPW crews dumping salt everywhere and making road conditions worse.  Just a pet peeve of mine because they are wasting money making road conditions generally worse.

Yeah I agree, they drop way too much salt, especially in the city.  I drove through downtown today and there was at best, 3-4" and you would think 2 ft just fell with the amount of salt they drop. Whats funny is, regular rock salt really doesn't work, past a certain temp, so it makes absolutely no sense.

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16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Disagree. But you usually do better with this. It's not until Saturday-Sun. Plenty of time. 

Hate to say it but you’ve (Tim123) been calling for apocalypse events all season for Kroc and we haven’t hit one yet.  I think isolated pockets along the lake might get 4-8 inches of dust if the meso comes to fruition but it isn’t worthy of full scale county wide warnings.   

In my opinion, watches and warnings are just fun for us enthusiasts. The rest of public pretty much starts tuning them out in  a pattern like this.....unless real strong wording such as “blizzard” was used.   And the snowbelts don’t care as it’s just business as usual regardless of what falls. 

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Sat and Sunday's clipper, if that's what everyone wants to call it, has turned into a glorified Arctic Frontal passage with no surface reflection, lol!  We'll be lucky to see a couple inches at best, then winds go NNW and the entire South Shore looks to get a few inches, at best, so I don't know where KBUF is getting these maps from, seriously!  KBOS might get another plowable event if that secondary bombs out quick enough.

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5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Only till thru Sunday am. Latest 3 k nam

nam3km_apcpn_neus_20.png

I will say that we are overdue. We’ve had better looking setups over the past month yield less than what’s being forecast for this weekend so confidence is low (at least for the metro/airport).  Georgian bay is icing up fast which won’t help things in the coming weeks either.  

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42 minutes ago, swva said:

Updated map.  I was hoping for a couple inches from the clipper.  What looked like a great trip for falling snow has quickly turned into one that I might see less than all but 1 other trip in 12 years.

5F5121CF-A79B-408D-8A34-DFE3177B7BB9.png

Pretty crazy you almost got skunked in a pattern like this. This has actually been a pretty odd lake effect event. Some big totals, but really isolated. Not much north/south sweeping of strong bands spreading the wealth. 

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48 minutes ago, swva said:

Updated map.  I was hoping for a couple inches from the clipper.  What looked like a great trip for falling snow has quickly turned into one that I might see less than all but 1 other trip in 12 years.

5F5121CF-A79B-408D-8A34-DFE3177B7BB9.png

That is really shocking as the Redfield spotter broke the 48 hour record and you're in Redfield? Goes to show you how Lake Effect works. 

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6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

This will be all lake Ontario no connection for weekend that may happen early next week as winds back more nw

Dude , you really need to try and refrain from using the word will, cause you have NO CLUE what Will happen this weekend. You speak in absolute's like what you say Will happen.  Its quite laughable actually, but it is a weather forum so I guess you can say what you want.  

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There's no way I could survive a winter outside of the Tug region. Being a few miles away from history while I get skunked would probably kill me. 

66" about 45 minutes north of here. I'll generously say I got 6".  The torment is real.

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