CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Look at that band on Michigan, you can see how long it is and its moving up the center of the lake and if you look close enough, you can see 2 Meso's on Michigan and one on Superior. This band actually looks like its going to effect Marquette, and I don't ever think I've seen that before. The one on Superior looked extremely intense before it moved over the open waters and disappeared. I think this is what KBUF is expecting to develop on Erie and move ashore but I don't know how their predicting a meso low to form, so I guess we'll see if it actually comes to fruition, I'll be impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Look at that band on Michigan, you can see how long it is and its moving up the center of the lake and if you look close enough, you can see 2 Meso's on Michigan and one on Superior. This band actually looks like its going to effect Marquette, and I don't ever think I've seen that before. The one on Superior looked extremely intense before it moved over the open waters and disappeared. I think this is what KBUF is expecting to develop on Erie and move ashore but I don't know how their predicting a meso low to form, so I guess we'll see if it actually comes to fruition, I'll be impressed. Southerly flow lake effect? Don't think I've ever seen that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Earlier this yr we had 1/2’ from a N-NNW wind event, not expecting a ton but can produce moderate accumulations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 hours ago, tim123 said: What' is nwp NWP...Numerical Weather Prediction, fancy abbreviation for "the models"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Southerly flow lake effect? Don't think I've ever seen that either. I think southerly LES is unusual...I noticed this (attached GFS output, NAM shows similar) up in Onrtario for the upcoming weekend Clipper...not sure that it's truly LES, probably lake enhanced in association with the Clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 LES Warnings up for WNY. 15-20" for Southern Erie and Chautauqua Ridge. How does this jive with their map though? Map shows 6-8" right on the edge of BUF metro and yet no advisory even though the map show possible low end warning level snowfall? I'm so confused! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: LES Warnings up for WNY. 15-20" for Southern Erie and Chautauqua Ridge. How does this jive with their map though? Map shows 6-8" right on the edge of BUF metro and yet no advisory even though the map show possible low end warning level snowfall? I'm so confused! Simple, map is wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 They should have watches out for orleans county to Oswego county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Tom Niziol left, and that office went to hell in a handbasket, and quick, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 It's not snowing hard but this steady feed of fine crystalline snow with temps near zero really makes roads slippery, even the interstates. Road crews keep throwing salt... making everything a slippery mess with the steady feed of snow and cold temps. Probably because they've been told to. Was driving in Oswego county yesterday in Mexico...a little sand at intersections but the dry snow made for wide wheel paths on blacktop which IMO is much safer to drive in. But no,,,the safety Nazis have DPW crews dumping salt everywhere and making road conditions worse. Just a pet peeve of mine because they are wasting money making road conditions generally worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: They should have watches out for orleans county to Oswego county. Disagree. But you usually do better with this. It's not until Saturday-Sun. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: It's not snowing hard but this steady feed of fine crystalline snow with temps near zero really makes roads slippery, even the interstates. Road crews keep throwing salt... making everything a slippery mess with the steady feed of snow and cold temps. Probably because they've been told to. Was driving in Oswego county yesterday in Mexico...a little sand at intersections but the dry snow made for wide wheel paths on blacktop which IMO is much safer to drive in. But no,,,the safety Nazis have DPW crews dumping salt everywhere and making road conditions worse. Just a pet peeve of mine because they are wasting money making road conditions generally worse. Yeah I agree, they drop way too much salt, especially in the city. I drove through downtown today and there was at best, 3-4" and you would think 2 ft just fell with the amount of salt they drop. Whats funny is, regular rock salt really doesn't work, past a certain temp, so it makes absolutely no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Updated map. I was hoping for a couple inches from the clipper. What looked like a great trip for falling snow has quickly turned into one that I might see less than all but 1 other trip in 12 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Disagree. But you usually do better with this. It's not until Saturday-Sun. Plenty of time. Hate to say it but you’ve (Tim123) been calling for apocalypse events all season for Kroc and we haven’t hit one yet. I think isolated pockets along the lake might get 4-8 inches of dust if the meso comes to fruition but it isn’t worthy of full scale county wide warnings. In my opinion, watches and warnings are just fun for us enthusiasts. The rest of public pretty much starts tuning them out in a pattern like this.....unless real strong wording such as “blizzard” was used. And the snowbelts don’t care as it’s just business as usual regardless of what falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, swva said: Updated map. I was hoping for a couple inches from the clipper. What looked like a great trip for falling snow has quickly turned into one that I might see less than all but 1 other trip in 12 years. Thats more realistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 26 minutes ago, swva said: They certainly amped up the totals along the south shore. 36+ hrs worth of snowfall on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Thats only to sunday am. More after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Only till thru Sunday am. Latest 3 k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Sat and Sunday's clipper, if that's what everyone wants to call it, has turned into a glorified Arctic Frontal passage with no surface reflection, lol! We'll be lucky to see a couple inches at best, then winds go NNW and the entire South Shore looks to get a few inches, at best, so I don't know where KBUF is getting these maps from, seriously! KBOS might get another plowable event if that secondary bombs out quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Only till thru Sunday am. Latest 3 k nam Look at the snow hole over KFZY on East, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Only till thru Sunday am. Latest 3 k nam I will say that we are overdue. We’ve had better looking setups over the past month yield less than what’s being forecast for this weekend so confidence is low (at least for the metro/airport). Georgian bay is icing up fast which won’t help things in the coming weeks either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Actually the models have not been showing these precip amounts in the meoscale models over the past couple events. At east for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 This will be all lake Ontario no connection for weekend that may happen early next week as winds back more nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Tim has called for a foot of snow for Rochester 7-8 times so far this year. Gotta stop picking out the model that gives the most snow for Rochester and going with it brother. I enjoy the enthusiasm but have to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 42 minutes ago, swva said: Updated map. I was hoping for a couple inches from the clipper. What looked like a great trip for falling snow has quickly turned into one that I might see less than all but 1 other trip in 12 years. Pretty crazy you almost got skunked in a pattern like this. This has actually been a pretty odd lake effect event. Some big totals, but really isolated. Not much north/south sweeping of strong bands spreading the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 48 minutes ago, swva said: Updated map. I was hoping for a couple inches from the clipper. What looked like a great trip for falling snow has quickly turned into one that I might see less than all but 1 other trip in 12 years. That is really shocking as the Redfield spotter broke the 48 hour record and you're in Redfield? Goes to show you how Lake Effect works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: This will be all lake Ontario no connection for weekend that may happen early next week as winds back more nw Dude , you really need to try and refrain from using the word will, cause you have NO CLUE what Will happen this weekend. You speak in absolute's like what you say Will happen. Its quite laughable actually, but it is a weather forum so I guess you can say what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Sorry to bother You. This is most likely all lake ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: There's no way I could survive a winter outside of the Tug region. Being a few miles away from history while I get skunked would probably kill me. 66" about 45 minutes north of here. I'll generously say I got 6". The torment is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Sorry to bother You. This is most likely all lake ontario Its not bothering me Tim as your input is very much appreciated brutha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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