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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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danno

danno

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, swva said:

I have had 4” since 12am 12/26.  Major snow north and south of me.  

Partly sunny and dry at my camp, but just drove to pulaski.   Closer to lake its completely grey and tea kettling pixie dust.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hey look euro has it a coastal now. Gives New York City 2.5” of qpf in the form of snow. 

This is all speculation on my part, but the 144 hr euro has a robust lp diving in out of Canada and a lp off NC already, at hour 168 bombogenesis takes place just east of NYC  however I would be remissed to think there wouldnt be a trough that brings precip all the way back to WNY as there would be ul energy here from the original lp.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hey look euro has it a coastal now. Gives New York City 2.5” of qpf in the form of snow. 

Just like the much ballyhooed NYE 2018 storm that wasn't...

The Usual NWP Suspects had that one for a couple/few days until *poof* just like that...it was gone. ;)

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tim123

tim123

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

This is all speculation on my part, but the 144 hr euro has a robust lp diving in out of Canada and a lp off NC already, at hour 168 bombogenesis takes place just east of NYC  however I would be remissed to think there wouldnt be a trough that brings precip all the way back to WNY as there would be ul energy here from the original lp.

That' what usually happens

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

This is all speculation on my part, but the 144 hr euro has a robust lp diving in out of Canada and a lp off NC already, at hour 168 bombogenesis takes place just east of NYC  however I would be remissed to think there wouldnt be a trough that brings precip all the way back to WNY as there would be ul energy here from the original lp.

Showing a likely triple phaser...slp over GOM heads over No. FL to well off NC coast and gets captured / hooked by incoming ULL diving in from NW.  Looks pretty...but somewhat rare at these latitudes. 

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, vortmax said:

KBUF mentions a meso low developing over Erie and moving onshore. WSW issued. Wondering why the same won't occur over Ontario?  

Areas along the Lake Ontario shoreline will likely see 3-6
inches. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect through Saturday
afternoon.

The south shore ctys. may see some sort of watch as well. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Buffalo nws has me on edge of 12-18” no way that happens 

 

 

31BEA417-2FF6-4D57-97BE-74E26640AA70.png

Im seriously starting to question who does these maps. The thruway coridor of the 90 by angola to the state line COULD be right, everything else is horse **** and the funny thing is this goes against their own area forecast calling for only 1 or 2 inches in the metro and this clearly shows 6 to 8.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Just like the much ballyhooed NYE 2018 storm that wasn't...

The Usual NWP Suspects had that one for a couple/few days until *poof* just like that...it was gone. ;)

I don't think you can just dismiss the chance of this happening, no? I'm also not saying its a lock by any means, but when all 4 global models have a system, of some kind, around the same time frame, then I think we need to keep an eye on the potential. I think there's a decent chance for a significant storm system somewhere along the EC.  It's not like we're transitioning into a different pattern all together, and the models are all over the place. In fact, the pattern we're currently in is a very stable one.  I for one definitely think a system effects us in one form or another, sometime next week. It could also just be a prolonged period, or spray, of significant LES for areas E&SE of both Lake's, so I guess we'll see. I'll remain cautiously optimistic at this point but I definitely don't see it disappearing on all models, except the GFS, as it is notorious for losing storms 2-4 days out only to bring it back.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I don't think you can just dismiss the chance of this happening, no? I'm also not saying its a lock by any means, but when all 4 global models have a system, of some kind, around the same time frame, then I think we need to keep an eye on the potential. I think there's a decent chance for a significant storm system somewhere along the EC.  It's not like we're transitioning into a different pattern all together, and the models are all over the place. In fact, the pattern we're currently in is a very stable one.  I for one definitely think a system effects us in one form or another, sometime next week. It could also just be a prolonged period, or spray, of significant LES for areas E&SE of both Lake's, so I guess we'll see. I'll remain cautiously optimistic at this point but I definitely don't see it disappearing on all models, except the GFS, as it is notorious for losing storms 2-4 days out only to bring it back.

You're probably right...pattern isn't in transition like the last virtual Blizzard on NWP for NYE. That said, there's a decent signal that something might develop. Details impossible at this range of course and yeah... GFS in particular will probably lose the plot 3 times between now and anything actually happening.

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I don't think you can just dismiss the chance of this happening, no? I'm also not saying its a lock by any means, but when all 4 global models have a system, of some kind, around the same time frame, then I think we need to keep an eye on the potential. I think there's a decent chance for a significant storm system somewhere along the EC.  It's not like we're transitioning into a different pattern all together, and the models are all over the place. In fact, the pattern we're currently in is a very stable one.  I for one definitely think a system effects us in one form or another, sometime next week. It could also just be a prolonged period, or spray, of significant LES for areas E&SE of both Lake's, so I guess we'll see. I'll remain cautiously optimistic at this point but I definitely don't see it disappearing on all models, except the GFS, as it is notorious for losing storms 2-4 days out only to bring it back.

Excellent point. We have been in a very stable pattern. A progressive pattern with limited digging. 

Its about the Greenland block. That could help. 

One good thing is that the forums will be active now that there's EC possibilities of a big one. 

I gotta think a big one does happen. Let's see if it can dig or retrograde. I get tired of the 'benchmark ' talk. Lol

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted

Tim, regarding the 3k nam, we will likely suffer the same issues we've had for a month now. This low (this weekend) will go right over us. The resulting winds will start WSW and then transition to WNW (at best). And waaay to strong.

Dont fall for these maps. The bias is to always prog the LES too far south. 

We need a clipper to pass south of us or we will continue to see the same areas get hit. 

Maybe it will be Fulton turn. 

IMG_4176.PNG

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

18z goofus is a whiff. To be excpected

Yeah...that's no shock. Problem is we're interested in a D7+ storm cuz there's nothing else all that interesting nearer term other than freezing our asses off.  Good news is NWP was barren for last couple days and changes always likely.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NE_Snow.png

You know it keeps showing 6 to 8 inches in the metro immediate northtowns,  and honestly WIVB in buffalo showed similar amounts but a little less at 3 to 6.  Todd Santos showed the initial burst tomorrow moving into the metroaround 3pm tgen again more lake enhancement Saturday adding up to 3 to 6. Im interested because the NWS  snowfall maps show it like above, but the AFD says 1 to 2 inches.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This same map for the last event had me in the 24-30" range, and we got a total of 6", so I won't believe this map until it actually starts snowing and I see how the bands are moving, lo!i I can see if they had us in a range of 6-12" but come on, 24-30", and we got 6" if that?

Yeah I feel like KBUF's maps have been especially bad this year, like a whole different level bad. I don't know if they have somebody new doing maps this year or what but they're always way too broadbrushed until after the event has started and they have to continually slash totals as the event goes on. I'm actually getting quite sick of the maps because of the contradiction to their own wording in their watches/warnings, forecast discussions, and point and click forecast. I feel like they used to be way more accurate and it seems as we move into the future they are taking a step backwards in terms of the quality of their forecast and their credibility in my eyes. 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

You know it keeps showing 6 to 8 inches in the metro immediate northtowns,  and honestly WIVB in buffalo showed similar amounts but a little less at 3 to 6.  Todd Santos showed the initial burst tomorrow moving into the metroaround 3pm tgen again more lake enhancement Saturday adding up to 3 to 6. Im interested because the NWS  snowfall maps show it like above, but the AFD says 1 to 2 inches.

Unless they are expecting 30:1 snow this will not verify.  90 stretch from Angola to the PA line could see 12"+, maybe a 2 foot jackpot on one of the hill tops.  Outside of that 6" MAX around Hamburg and 3-4" MAX for the metro area.  Past few events have shown they are just covering their butts on the northern gradient.  They put out an initial forcast which usually ends up being pretty good but then they cast the doubt on the northern extent and rates so they needlessly jack it up to be safe.  Can't blame them with how many times they got burned in the past (Jan 17) most recently.  Damn if you damned if you don't situation.  Guess if they had to save face one way or the other it's better to over forecast than under forecast.     

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