Syrmax Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: With ratios, Kuchera method, laughable at best, this may be the best clown map yet I think! Step AWAY from the Clown maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Some impressive lows..Kfzy up to -3 (low of -5) with light snow, ksyr up to to-4..(low -6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: The 00Z Euro has a high in Orlando of 36F with a low of 23F on the 5th of January. That would be devastating to some of the citrus groves! This is really dated info, but back when I was in the navy at nuclear power school in Orlando (1980s...now moved to SC), I remember reading about how the citrus groves had basically shifted south over time as Central FL gets too cold too often...growers had benefitted from a relatively warmer period back then. When I reported to the Navy base there on Jan 1, everything was frozen cuz sprinklers are on timers. I remember driving around Ocala and Orlando area seeing frost killed citrus trees being burned in large pyres after that freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Snowed here all nite walworth. Got 4 5 inches In north Ontario, we only got about an inch overnight. Missed the narrow band. Still ended up with a foot or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Man that euro run would be a true blizzard for all of ny. Wind chills 20 to 40 below. Really dangerous stuff. Has roc in heavy snow with a temp of negative 1. So the pattern is ripe for big storm. Brutal cold with warm ocean on east coast Yea, something is gonna 'pop' with all of this baroclinicity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: -33F in KWRT, sick! Yikes!! I’ll be up in Chaumont next weekend. Was wondering if the bay would be frozen thick enough to get out and ski/skate on it. Sounds like that won’t be a problem... So interesting how cold air off the surrounding higher elevations drains into Watertown to give them such cold lows sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Lake Erie is at 33 now...southern tier gas another WSW for up to a foot of snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday night due to a tea kettle band that will move on shore in the southern tier, where that absolutely do not need it. So heres the deal, we are about to become Minot North Dakota where there will be plenty of cold and no snow. Far too early in the season to have to expect snow from unicorn storms when all we get are 2" clippers from time to time. Absolutely bummin right now. It would go against climo if BUF is below normal snowfall this year with such an early Lake Erie freeze. Winters with sustained cold sufficient enough to completely freeze the lake typically translate to many more snow than rain events, hence above average snowfall. Not saying we can’t end up below normal, but climo provides a reason for optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 35 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Step AWAY from the Clown maps! I’ve received 0.4% of the predicted snow on the clown maps over the last 10 Days. So yeah, we toss. But damn that Euro run...Chances it has a storm within 500 miles of that position at 12Z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I’ve received 0.4% of the predicted snow on the clown maps over the last 10 Days. So yeah, we toss. But damn that Euro run...Chances it has a storm within 500 miles of that position at 12Z?? 20%, and we've received less than that. so your ahead of the game, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 20% Sounds about right. Anything but a benchmark track please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I’ve received 0.4% of the predicted snow on the clown maps over the last 10 Days. So yeah, we toss. But damn that Euro run...Chances it has a storm within 500 miles of that position at 12Z?? 12Z will be...How much for Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Not early at All. Will be january. It is early for this amount of cold Arctic air. I guess if KBUF says it then it may be more believable, right, ok then, lol! From NWS KBUF early morning Disco On a climate note, while these arctic airmasses, and a weeks worth of temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below normal have several times before, what is unusual is the earliness of this cold air arrival. These prolonged cold temperatures typically occur in the heart of the cold winter months of January and February...not beginning in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Not early at All. Will be january. Come on man, name one time in the last 30 years it has been this cold, for this long, this early. **Pro-Tip** Don't spend too much time long looking because it has never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 KBUF mentions a meso low developing over Erie and moving onshore. WSW issued. Wondering why the same won't occur over Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Hey Tim, Euro has a retrograde low in 7 days. Early in the season for this? Early in the season? What does that even mean? Last November had an identical track that gave 2-3’ feet for central New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Come on man, name one time in the last 30 years it has been this cold, for this long, this early. **Pro-Tip** Don't spend too much time long looking because it has never happened. They stated this was very uncommon and is historic to 70 years ago, and none of it was in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Come on man, name one time in the last 30 years it has been this cold, for this long, this early. **Pro-Tip** Don't spend too much time long looking because it has never happened. I was referrng to a retrograding low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Early in the season? What does that even mean? Last November had an identical track that gave 2-3’ feet for central New York. I associate retrograde lows with Feb and March. Could be my imagination. But I don't remember big retro lows in early Jan. Things are a bit more progressive early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: I was referrng to a retrograding low. If that model run is right I will snowblow my driveway in bermuda shorts and flip flops...thats how confident I am it won't happen, and I'll video the whole thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: If that model run is right I will snowblow my driveway in bermuda shorts and flip flops...thats how confident I am it won't happen, and I'll video the whole thing Timestamped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: If that model run is right I will snowblow my driveway in bermuda shorts and flip flops...thats how confident I am it won't happen, and I'll video the whole thing 12Z GFS runs a storm from Bermuda to Boston Harbor...haha. That makes 2 insane global model runs in the last 12 hours...Potential certainly there for something nuclear with such a crazy deep trof being modeled, but I would think we'll need to see some N. Atlantic blocking for any of these crazy solutions to have a prayer. Pretty sure NAO has been quite positive, haven't looked at forecast though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I associate retrograde lows with Feb and March. Could be my imagination. But I don't remember big retro lows in early Jan. Things are a bit more progressive early. Retrograding lows are caused by atlantic/greenland blocking. I've seen retrograding lows in summer. They are more common in winter though. Some nice blocking on EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Look where the snow hole is, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 I would favor a coastal as the blocking is not extreme in comparison to how strong that low will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: 12Z GFS runs a storm from Bermuda to Boston Harbor...haha. That makes 2 insane global model runs in the last 12 hours...Potential certainly there for something nuclear with such a crazy deep trof being modeled, but I would think we'll need to see some N. Atlantic blocking for any of these crazy solutions to have a prayer. Pretty sure NAO has been quite positive, haven't looked at forecast though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF 44" in Perrysburg 64" in Redfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF 44" in Perrysburg 64" in Redfield I am interested in the goofus showing a similar lp track, although they get there 2 different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Still in Altmar...where we are still getting SN-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Some impressive lows..Kfzy up to -3 (low of -5) with light snow, ksyr up to to-4..(low -6) Does anyone else find that -18 number from Medina very odd? I'd go as far as to call it plain BS. There is no way a location on the lake plain under light snow, northerly (lake modified air) winds, and fairly thick cloud cover got down that low. Someone needs to buy a new thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Still in Altmar...where we are still getting SN-. How much accumulation have you seen the past day? Nothing but sun up here in South Redfield. I’ve stayed in Altmar before too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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