tim123 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Gfs is goin to flip flop as all models are doin latley. To much feed back into the west. According to Joe bastardi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z CMC has a more suppressed LP track for the 23rd giving snow to WNY all the way through Christmas day. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I definitely think we see a few inches tonight, at least a couple No?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Long ways to go but pretty long duration LES event Tuesday - Thursday morning next week. Been pretty consistent on the euro. Then maybe some synoptic fun behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 From day 5 on, the Euro, is absolutely frigid averaging between -15C and -23C so that is definitely cold enough for me! It snows on Monday with 850's in the -upper teens, so even during this little synoptic event, ratios may approach 15/1" ,maybe a bit higher so all in all, things dont seem so bad as they did a few days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I definitely think we see a few inches tonight, at least a couple No? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Maybe. But it has to stop being 50 degrees first though. Also, if I'm viewing the Euro correctly, isn't the 12Z/19 op run coming in with a colder & more SE track for the pre-xmas system? Looks like it moves slp from over PIT -> BGM whereas in past few days, it was well to our NW up into So. Ontario. Prob doesn't save us from mix/rain but Maybe not a complete meltdown gullywasher in CNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 yeah Fridays system has come in much further South than previous runs but we'll see at 00Z if its a blip, or if other globals catch on as well. Looks like the GFS did to an extent but not as far South as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 18Z GFS says what Christmas storm, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 We all see some snow on Friday but it'll be gone by 06Z Saturday as it warms once again ahead of Saturdays debacle. That system I think is still up in the air, as the cold air seems to wanna press more and more so maybe we'll see a Christmas Miracle after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Friday's system is looking better and better on all models now. Their pretty much all in agreement on the track and intensity so I think we may be able to lock this one in for a few to several inches for both CWA's. The Euro, when within 3 days, is quite deadly so it's my model of choice atm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 18Z GFS says what Christmas storm, lol! Grab a different solution out of a hat with each model run it seems like...I'm guessing the highly anomalous pattern taking shape is leading to a lot of variability in the medium range. I'm personally not pinning my hopes on anything for the 24/25 period until Friday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Friday's system is looking better and better on all models now. Their pretty much all in agreement on the track and intensity so I think we may be able to lock this one in for a few to several inches for both CWA's. The Euro, when within 3 days, is quite deadly so it's my model of choice atm! The Canadian 12z was the first to catch on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, vortmax said: The Canadian 12z was the first to catch on... 18z GFS has a much different snowfall accumulation through hour 240 than the 12z...much more throughout NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Nws kbuf has picked up on the southern shift for fridays lp: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Any more tend to the south and may never go to all rain north of thruway especially Rochester west. Cmc was picking up in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 18Z GFS says what Christmas storm, lol! The 6&18Z GFS are usually the next best thing to eating week old cat litter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 51 minutes ago, tim123 said: Any more tend to the south and may never go to all rain north of thruway especially Rochester west. Cmc was picking up in this Agree on that. But fully expecting the upcoming 00Z's or tomorrow's 12Z to yank the football away from us. Because we're dupes and never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 57 minutes ago, tim123 said: Any more tend to the south and may never go to all rain north of thruway especially Rochester west. Cmc was picking up in this Its inevitable we warm, as the temps will continue to rise, as the next system is right on its heel, so even if it snows a foot, the rains expected will wipe out anything we get from fridays even, exceptt other than adding to the seasonal total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I may be on crack, but...how is the op GooFuS the most west model suite, among CMC/EC/GFS? Anyone seen the 00Z GFS vs GEM for this weekend? Wow. GEM is a raging snowstorm for ENY/CNY/WNY. Actually, it delays the friday/Sat storm I think, vs GFS. Compare side by side, it's like a 2016 vs 2017 forecast. Someone is very wrong. 00Z Euro gonna be interesting...the trend further S&E may be for real (except on GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yeah it looks like the cold wants to push much faster than first anticipated. On top of this all, I think the Canadian handles low lvl cold air much better than most other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah it looks like the cold wants to push much faster than first anticipated. On top of this all, I think the Canadian handles low lvl cold air much better than most other globals. It's even more than that...GFS races main energy up NE a day or more faster but GEM seems to hold it back and slide slp S&E. Compare the two panel for panel from 72 hrs on out.... Either the GFS or GEM has lost the plot for end of week to XMas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Whichever one verifies with synoptic storm, both global models with strong lake effect indicated afterwards, next mon -> wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I gotta say, the 00Z GFS wasn't a bad for cold and snow for the immediate CNY area, even though it took away the XMAS event. but I think its doing its losing trick only to find the rabbit in the hat. Sat's system I think has a bit more wiggle room for a Eastward tick or two from both the GFS and the EURO. The Canadian is on its own with its solution,. Doesn't look like 00Z suite solved any issues with model agreement as their all on their own one way or another. We started with this thing going up through MI, now its a KPIT to KSYR track, so I think we'may actually get a Christmas miracle with an added bonus of snow actually falling Christmas day. I think we got a good chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Was gonna mention the LES but I figured 7 days out, lol, nah, so I'm glad you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Canadian’s been showing this for 2-3 days now, obviously doesn’t matter much but can give us hints at a general wind direction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian’s been showing this for 2-3 days now, obviously doesn’t matter much but can give us hints at a general wind direction.. That would be a wicked 6hr period for us that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Wait, look at the 8560's down at -21C, lol, those would be 20-25/1" liq eqv in intense LE! Man what I would give. At least snowmobilers are looking much much better for the Holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Was gonna mention the LES but I figured 7 days out, lol, nah, so I'm glad you did. Yeah, it's really a fool's game reading too much into LES potential on global models a week out but it was interesting to note. Trajectory even more sketchy. CMC is really different look hanging back the slp end of week. I saw in NE thread that Ukie looks more like CMC on 00z but I didnt verify that. Key seems to be CMC hanging back a closed looking h5 in the SW CONUS vs GFS. We'll see what Euro comes up with but it's been drifting further S&E with track last few runs. If GFS verifies it'll be another brown XMas for most, after a promising week or two ahead of it. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 This pattern screams a more western track. Give me a break. WNY/CNY won't cash in on more than early sleet on the Friday thing. It's a western runner. Look at the corresponding lows and highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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