phoenixny Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Had to go to Vestal for a funeral and came home to about 3" for the day in Phoenix. Snowing lightly at the moment. A hair above pixie dust in flake size. Just thinking of roofs up north and only being late December. Pattern wants to relax and maybe reload late in the period via models. Gonna be a long winter if we stay normal to below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just looked at the 12z euro, has a nice LP just north of superior next week from monday to Wednesday...if true it will be our only real chance at a significant event in the metro and nearby northtowns...I fear the lake shuts down pretty soon aftet that. The gfs has also been showing that event for a few days now. Still plenty of time for disappointment though. Hopefully, we get something. I'm going down to nyc for the weekend, and was planning to come back on Tuesday, so if I'm not there, chances are good it'll snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Those pics out of Erie do not look like 60" fell at all, must have been 1:30 ratio stuff. Lake Erie will be rapidly freezing. But the northeastern portion always takes awhile to completely freeze. This insane cold definitely does a number on it. I'd say another 2 weeks to be completely frozen, if we do not get a warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 That event on Saturday is starting to look really interesting. It has a 12 hour period of WSW winds with great moisture and well aligned flow. The NAM has the low stalling over Huron. Has the potential to be a surprise event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Those pics out of Erie do not look like 60" fell at all, must have been 1:30 ratio stuff. Lake Erie will be rapidly freezing. But the northeastern portion always takes awhile to completely freeze. This insane cold definitely does a number on it. I'd say another 2 weeks to be completely frozen, if we do not get a warmup. Glad I'm not the only one wondering that about the Erie snowfall. They are up over 60" for the past three days and the pics I've seen look like nothing compared to Nov 14. We had semis and fire trucks buried in the streets and all they are showing is kids jumping into knee deep snow banks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 After an afternoon lull snow has picked up once again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Pretty nasty out right now, snow blowing completely sideways as winds are whipping, Probably the heaviest snow we have seen since this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty nasty out right now, snow blowing completely sideways as winds are whipping, Probably the heaviest snow we have seen since this morning.. Similar here but varying intensity. Won't be more than 2-3" total. Radar useless, overshooting clouds, WSYR radar better at showing whats going on than KBGM site. What a week for KTYX to be toes up....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Glad I'm not the only one wondering that about the Erie snowfall. They are up over 60" for the past three days and the pics I've seen look like nothing compared to Nov 14. We had semis and fire trucks buried in the streets and all they are showing is kids jumping into knee deep snow banks... Yeah those pics look a little more than I had down here this year before the warmup. The qpf In 2014 was 5-7” the qpf In erie lake effect was 2-3” in hardest hit areas. If ratios were better in 2014 we would of had totals of 120”+. I still firmly believe places got well over 100” in that event but it was next to impossible to measure properly. I measured 88.5” here and places just to my north and east had more qpf via radar estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah those pics look a little more than I had down here this year before the warmup. The qpf In 2014 was 5-7” the qpf In erie lake effect was 2-3” in hardest hit areas. If ratios were better in 2014 we would of had totals of 120”+. I still firmly believe places got well over 100” in that event but it was next to impossible to measure properly. I measured 88.5” here and places just to my north and east had more qpf via radar estimates. Unfortunately, I was stuck in Amherst in 2014, but I've said the same thing. The official kbuf measurement always seems to larger than spotter reports nearby, because they make sure to follow measurement protocol exactly. Had the storm hit a few miles further north, the 24 hour snowfall record probably would have been broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: Unfortunately, I was stuck in Amherst in 2014, but I've said the same thing. The official kbuf measurement always seems to larger than spotter reports nearby, because they make sure to follow measurement protocol exactly. Had the storm hit a few miles further north, the 24 hour snowfall record probably would have been broken. Easily, times 2 possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Was at the Park I work at today clearing snow, which is located right at the entrance to Presque Isle. Afterwards, visited lakeshore communities from Fairview, Millcreek, into Erie City proper. I think without question the snowfall totals at the airport were overdone. I can say with quite a bit of certainty that there is no way the city got anywhere near that amount. The time lapse that BuffaloWeather posted by the Arena in downtown Erie shows some nice snow, but not 50-60"imo. Once you get back west toward the airport, there was more snow - did not measure but i guess some 24-36" depth. I think the official airport snow-depth now is only at 28". The piles after plowing, the walkways and driveways after snow blowing, certainly do not indicate to me that the area received 60" of snow since Sunday night. Route 430 in Harborcreek and Greenfield townships, with runs sort of parallel with I-90 just east southeast of it, seemed to have the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said: Was at the Park I work at today clearing snow, which is located right at the entrance to Presque Isle. Afterwards, visited lakeshore communities from Fairview, Millcreek, into Erie City proper. I think without question the snowfall totals at the airport were overdone. I can say with quite a bit of certainty that there is no way the city got anywhere near that amount. The time lapse that BuffaloWeather posted by the Arena in downtown Erie shows some nice snow, but not 50-60"imo. Once you get back west toward the airport, there was more snow - did not measure but i guess some 24-36" depth. I think the official airport snow-depth now is only at 28". The piles after plowing, the walkways and driveways after snow blowing, certainly do not indicate to me that the area received 60" of snow since Sunday night. Route 430 in Harborcreek and Greenfield townships, with runs sort of parallel with I-90 just east southeast of it, seemed to have the most snow. Yeah the pictures east of Ontario look like way more snow than in Erie. Some crazy totals down there. Location Total Snowfall Erie Airport, PA 65.1" 6 SW North East, PA 56.0" Colt Station, PA 56.0" Green Township, PA 51.5" Millcreek Township, PA 46.5" Conneaut, OH 38.8" Lake City, PA 36.3" North Kingsville, OH 31.9" Ashtabula, OH 29.3" North East, PA 27.5" Madison, OH 15.8" http://www.erienewsnow.com/story/37149989/erie-lake-effect-snow-storm-records-totals-released?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Erie_News_Now_-_Your_News_Team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 62" in 48 hours in Redfield. http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/12/62_inches_redfield_breaks_48-hour_oswego_county_snow_record.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Look at Lorraine off the tug. http://abcnews.go.com/US/lake-effect-snow-colder-temperatures-northeast/story?id=52006526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 In-Laws live in Lake City, 36" seems correct. Colt Station and 6SW of North East PA are right on that 430 corridor, 56" seems plausible especially since both spotters are in close proximity and have been reporting for CLE for many moons. 65.1" at the airport...not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hey Tim, Euro has a retrograde low in 7 days. Early in the season for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Quote Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Windy -29°F -34°C Humidity 100% Wind Speed NW 94 G 100 mph Barometer NA Dewpoint -29°F (-34°C) Visibility 0.19 mi Wind Chill -82°F (-63°C) Last update 28 Dec 1:55 am EST Wow, check out the weather on Mount Washington! -29 with 100mph winds anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yea, the euro has a nice synoptic system day 7, with lots of lake enhancement on the back side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 EPS control is pretty impressive too Basically a crush job for the whole state of NY Sadly, this still 7 days out. Trend is good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 With ratios, Kuchera method, laughable at best, this may be the best clown map yet I think! This at best will probably be a coastal, that pretty much will effect places to our S&E and especially New England. I won't even play into such a scenario, but something big should come out of the gulf cause there should be a relaxation of this brutally cold pattern, and as this transition happens, there is the possibility of a biggie during such pattern changes. However, they are not to dissimilar with their projections so lets see what happens the next few days but I firmly expect this to be a New England KU event as they are common place in New England as of the last decade, so it seems! Euro pressure at day 7 GFS has nothing, as expected at this time frame. I was also starting to wonder where all of these suppression posts were coming from with such a +NAO! Well it has something but, as to be expected, its OTS with its SE bias. We're firmly entrenched into this pattern, so I think the models may have a better handle on systerms further out as opposed to the last week or two when the pattern was becoming established but we'll see I guess. GGEM has it as well but it further South, but its there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Lake Erie is at 33 now...southern tier gas another WSW for up to a foot of snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday night due to a tea kettle band that will move on shore in the southern tier, where that absolutely do not need it. So heres the deal, we are about to become Minot North Dakota where there will be plenty of cold and no snow. Far too early in the season to have to expect snow from unicorn storms when all we get are 2" clippers from time to time. Absolutely bummin right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Watertown is currently reporting a temp of -29F with a wind chill approaching -40F and that's just sick for the End of December! I gotta say, I'm happy for Wayne County cause they get shut out most of the time, so good for them, and Congrats VortMax!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 -33F in KWRT, sick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Wayne County, in certain areas, got hit all night as well so they probably got another 6" of fluff last night. We're due for a 20-30" event so we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Dave that would be sweet on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not early at All. Will be january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 00Z Euro has a high in Orlando of 36F with a low of 23F on the 5th of January. That would be devastating to some of the citrus groves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Snowed here all nite walworth. Got 4 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Man that euro run would be a true blizzard for all of ny. Wind chills 20 to 40 below. Really dangerous stuff. Has roc in heavy snow with a temp of negative 1. So the pattern is ripe for big storm. Brutal cold with warm ocean on east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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