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Upstate/Eastern New York


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NWS

A general 290 flow over Lake Ontario this morning will continue to
focus a plume of moderate to occasionally heavy lake effect snow
that will extend from the New York nearshore waters to northeast
Wayne county...northern Cayuga county to southern Oswego County.
Have upgraded Wayne county to a warning for today. Impressive long
lake axis plume seen hugging the south shore on GOES East 1-minute
is being enhanced by strong convergence with northerly inflow into
the north side of the band. Snowfall rates overnight in the town of
Oswego average 3+ inches per hour for 8 hours in this band. As this
band moves slowly onshore in Wayne and N. Cayuga counties this
morning, these high snowfall rates will continue with an additional
foot of snow likely for northeast Wayne and N. Cayuga.

As the aforementioned arctic front settles south across the North
Country and winds veer to 300-310 during the midday hours...the band
will be pushed southward over the counties that line the lakes
southern shoreline. While the veering steering winds will likely
lead to a renewed upstream connection to Lake Huron...the axis of
the band coming off Lake Ontario should weaken the low level
convergence...and with a higher sheared environment...the organized
should become more multi band in nature. This will lead to lower
snowfall rates...but will spray a larger area with accumulating
snowfall. That is why winter weather advisories will be in place
from Niagara to Monroe counties into this evening for snowfall of 3
to 6 inches.
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I guess if you take those totals and account for ratios, its probably a better forecast then its showing.  If it had the Kuchera method which accounts for ratios it would be a big difference.  That's impressive, but a rapid refresh model that runs every hour should pick up on small nuances of the band, like it did perfectly last night.

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1 hour ago, swva said:

Well 2.5” last night.. ha!  Band never stopped sinking south.  It is beautiful out this morning though.. I guess I have to hope this clipper coming gets energized!

I wonder if the band just shortened up.  We drove up last night.  Between Tinker Tavern to 3 miles north of pulaski, zero visibility, so much we missed the Pulaski exit, never even saw it.  Pulaski to Altmar picked up 12". Band stayed steady state from 730 -11.  About 10" at camp from when the band came through, but im several miles closer to the lake than u.

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3 minutes ago, danno said:

I wonder if the band just shortened up.  We drove up last night.  Between Tinker Tavern to 3 miles north of pulaski, zero visibility, so much we missed the Pulaski exit, never even saw it.  Pulaski to Altmar picked up 12". Band stayed steady state from 730 -11.  About 10" at camp from when the band came through, but im several miles closer to the lake than u.

Wow!  10” at camp.  Has to be the band shortened up.  It snowed about that time you said but outside of 1 hour it was mostly light stuff.  I must bring the snow hole with me lol!  Everyone reporting nice totals..

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Oswego was always kinda tough.  Lots of minor to moderate snow events and then every once in awhile you get slammed with a stall and it wasn't super obvious when it would happen either.  I remember a ton of 1 to 3 ft events that blitzed minetto to Fulton and central square where Oswego got 3 to 6 inches.  

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