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BuffaloWeather

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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Posted
17 minutes ago, swva said:

For you LE gurus:  it looks like the band is weakening or already drawing back toward the shore.  Am I seeing that right and do you guys think it will fire back up?  

Lots of dry air around, unlike yesterday when synoptic moisture was much much more abundant but it should get going as the eq is still up to 10,00ft and 13,000ft with super LVL lapse rates and cape over the lake is still 500 j/s which is not super great but should do the job. The band should be on the move later this afternoon but how far South is the million dollar question right now. 

I usually like to look at the upper great lakes to see what the upstream wind flow looks like and it looks to be more WNW-NW which should change the trajectory of the bands form W-E to a more WNW-NW flow which should drop the band further South but this shouldn't happen till late tonight so, as far as rates are concerned.  I'm thinking 2-4"/hr later on, when more abundant moisture gets involved but for how long is the ts the current question.

RAD_MOS_REG_NE_L2WINTER_ANI.gif.7851bac2a5143f93adc88785c7016ba5.gif

The wind shift is passing through central Lake Huron and Central GB. The models have been absolutely horrific with this event, imo, but I do know when a steady state quasi-stationary band is very hard to move but we'll see later this evening. You look like ground zero until she starts her treck South this evening, if it even does so, so good luck.  Whats your current total for the event or you don't know?

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Erie PA saw 53" of snow in 30 hours. That is historic for them. Probably just about the most amount of snow Erie PA can get in the timeframe. 

http://triblive.com/local/regional/13113745-74/erie-sees-record-shattering-53-inches-of-snow-in-30-hours

From midnight to 6 a.m. today, Erie received another 19 inches, making the storm total 53 inches, far and away the highest two-day total in Pennsylvania history. The previous record was 44 inches in Morgantown, Pa., From March 20-21, 1958.

• December 2017 has been the snowiest month in Erie's history, with 73 inches (and counting). The previous record was 66.9 inches in December 1989.

The National Weather Service, which has a lake-effect snow warning ongoing through 4 p.m. Wednesday, is calling for an additional 8 to 16 inches of snow around Erie, falling at rates of up to 3 inches per hour in some cases.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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Max look, lol, Heavy snow from KBGM for tonight through Wednesday night!

Tonight
Snow showers likely, mainly between 9pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches.
Wednesday
Snow before noon, then snow showers likely after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Wind chill values as low as -5. Light north wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. Wind chill values as low as -14. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
 
Can this be possible? After all, it has been issued by the, lvl headed mets of the KBGM office, lol! I'm perplexed right now!
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Syrmax

Syrmax

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15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Max look, lol, Heavy snow from KBGM for tonight through Wednesday night!

Tonight
Snow showers likely, mainly between 9pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches.
Wednesday
Snow before noon, then snow showers likely after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Wind chill values as low as -5. Light north wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. Wind chill values as low as -14. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
 
Can this be possible? After all, it has been issued by the, lvl headed mets of the KBGM office, lol! I'm perplexed right now!

Yeah a few inches coming eventually.  We figured that and it makes sense.

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swva

swva

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42 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Lots of dry air around, unlike yesterday when synoptic moisture was much much more abundant but it should get going as the eq is still up to 10,00ft and 13,000ft with super LVL lapse rates and cape over the lake is still 500 j/s which is not super great but should do the job. The band should be on the move later this afternoon but how far South is the million dollar question right now. 

I usually like to look at the upper great lakes to see what the upstream wind flow looks like and it looks to be more WNW-NW which should change the trajectory of the bands form W-E to a more WNW-NW flow which should drop the band further South but this shouldn't happen till late tonight so, as far as rates are concerned.  I'm thinking 2-4"/hr later on, when more abundant moisture gets involved but for how long is the ts the current question.

RAD_MOS_REG_NE_L2WINTER_ANI.gif.7851bac2a5143f93adc88785c7016ba5.gif

The wind shift is passing through central Lake Huron and Central GB. The models have been absolutely horrific with this event, imo, but I do know when a steady state quasi-stationary band is very hard to move but we'll see later this evening. You look like ground zero until she starts her treck South this evening, if it even does so, so good luck.  Whats your current total for the event or you don't know?

We have only had 1.5” since midnight.  Most of the action has been up north.  Just flurries right now.  Not really sure how much before I got here but I’m pretty sure the driveway was plowed before it started and I measured 16” last night.  So if that were the case we are a little over 17”..  that’s a guess.  Overall base is prob 3’.  I’ll measure that later.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Totals so far:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

Highest totals so far. Boston, Colden, Springville have to be in the 20-30" range as well. 

...Cattaraugus County...
   Perrysburg            26.0   806 AM 12/26  Co-Op Observer
...Lewis County...
   Highmarket            22.3   515 AM 12/26  Co-Op Observer
   1 NW Constableville   22.0   600 AM 12/26  CoCoRaHS
   Port Leyden           21.7   600 AM 12/26  CoCoRaHS
   Lowville              21.5   700 AM 12/26  Co-Op Observer
...Oswego County...
   8 N Redfield          32.2   700 AM 12/26  Co-Op Observer
   1 NE Pulaski           9.0   700 AM 12/26  CoCoRaHS

 

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If that band was over Metro Buffalo today we would have been looking at historic snowfall rates/totals. That band today was what KBUF was talking about last week before winds shifted 20-30 degrees. 

Just imagine a perfect 250 stationary band with the current atmospheric setup we just had, can you say Nov’14 + Dec’10 events combined on steroids?

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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KBUF doesn't even know if the band or when the band will begin to head South, so for this weather enthusiast, this event is a done deal for me. Now we wait for a Clipper that will drop a dusting to an 1" area wide, then NWerly flow with garbage multiple bands, for the foreseeable future. Models were spitting out montrerous totals only to have left a dusting of snow for all of the immediate CNY area, excluding So. Onondaga as they got some nice accumulations from Erie yesterday.  I'm just so damn sick of the nickel and dime bull**** that we have to deal with, just to get to avg for the season, what a joke!

If Syracuse didn't have Lake ontario, their yearly avg would be less than 30", if even that high!

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

KBUF doesn't even know if the band or when the band will begin to head South, so for this weather enthusiast, this event is a done deal for me. Now we wait for a Clipper that will drop a dusting to an 1" area wide, then NWerly flow with garbage multiple bands, for the foreseeable future. Models were spitting out montrerous totals only to have left a dusting of snow for all of the immediate CNY area, excluding So. Onondaga as they got some nice accumulations from Erie yesterday.  I'm just so damn sick of the nickel and dime bull**** that we have to deal with, just to get to avg for the season, what a joke!

If Syracuse didn't have Lake ontario, their yearly avg would be less than 30", if even that high!

You guys are in a much better position for synoptic as well, that's what climo dictates. Were you there for 1993? 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

KBUF doesn't even know if the band or when the band will begin to head South, so for this weather enthusiast, this event is a done deal for me. Now we wait for a Clipper that will drop a dusting to an 1" area wide, then NWerly flow with garbage multiple bands, for the foreseeable future. Models were spitting out montrerous totals only to have left a dusting of snow for all of the immediate CNY area, excluding So. Onondaga as they got some nice accumulations from Erie yesterday.  I'm just so damn sick of the nickel and dime bull**** that we have to deal with, just to get to avg for the season, what a joke!

If Syracuse didn't have Lake ontario, their yearly avg would be less than 30", if even that high!

Hey, it'll get better. We all got sucked in by clown maps last week.  Who knew we needed to divide those totals by 5? ;)

I am 50/50 for lake vs synoptic snow so far. Interesting to see how this season plays out. Final ratio prob depends on March and April snowfall as usually not much LES after early March

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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No, I was in Colorado for that memorable storm but that's a once in a lifetime occurrence, except of course, if your in New England where every coastal nowadays seems to bomb out as it deposits copious amounts of snow!  I really don't care what Climo dictates because I have lived here for 15 yrs and have seen maybe 3, if that, memorable synoptic events. The biggest being the v-day storm, there was also one on Christmas day in 2002. Oh and I forgot last yrs March system, my bad.  They are very few and very far between so I don't know where they get their info, climo wise.

Redfield

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow before 3am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 3am and 4am. Low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
 
If this verify's, that's 3ft just for today and tonight, lol!
Wednesday
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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So if their forecasting 7-11" for tonight in Redfield, then I suppose KBUF expects them to continue to see snow after the band sags Southward, if it even does, as I don't believe anything that is portrayed by any meso models right now. Maybe its just this event that the models have performed really bad with placement, but not with strength, which I think is the easiest part of forecasting LES, but definitely not wind flow!

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