CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Cortland County has seen more snow from this event than KFZY, lol! That's from the Erie band too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: We all post model output that show's something for the, kFZY area through the CUSE, like this area should see some snow or something, when whoever lives in this area knows these models, haven't got a clue especially the HRRR, lol. It's almost comical watching some of these meso scale models trying to pinpoint a band from 2 days out, lol! Having observed here for 13 winters now, for big LES events it's not worth worrying about model output generally for IMBY amounts where we are. I've done Bufkit analysis for years, not anymore because it's boring seeing the same results over and over. You know what happens...flow is channeled down the lake and it sh!ts out snow east of the lake. I don't care what the mid and upper level directions are. It doesn't matter if it's 250-290... it's going to end up between Parish and Watertown onto the Tug. Occasionally, it'll set up just south or north of that line but never south of a Fulton to Central Square line for more than a few hours at strength. After a disturbance or two shoots thru, the band is pushed south and collapses, typically ending up as NW flow multibands. Or the band moves back north in response to a wind shift ahead of another incoming system. Rinse, repeat... I can pencil in 2-6" for any Lake event IMBY and be right 90% of the time...probably 3-7" up by you. Fulton does better in general, closer to the lake and a bit North of my latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yeah, having done so now for more than a decade, its certainly not worth the time and effort of tracking these events, that's for damn sure, so I'm done doing so. I'll still track Synoptic events ( which we usually don't see anyway) but this LES stuff, I'm so done with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Having observed here for 13 winters now, for big LES events it's not worth worrying about model output generally for IMBY amounts where we are. I've done Bufkit analysis for years, not anymore because it's boring seeing the same results over and over. You know what happens...flow is channeled down the lake and it sh!ts out snow east of the lake. I don't care what the mid and upper level directions are. It doesn't matter if it's 250-290... it's going to end up between Parish and Watertown onto the Tug. Occasionally, it'll set up just south or north of that line but never south of a Fulton to Central Square line for more than a few hours at strength. After a disturbance or two shoots thru, the band is pushed south and collapses, typically ending up as NW flow multibands. Or the band moves back north in response to a wind shift ahead of another incoming system. Rinse, repeat... I can pencil in 2-6" for any Lake event IMBY and be right 90% of the time...probably 3-7" up by you. Fulton does better in general, closer to the lake and a bit North of my latitude. Good post, and true especially for our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Even KFZY has been in a LES drought since the "season in a week storm" lol, which seems like decades ago, lol! At least KBUF verified with their wind advisory, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Good post, and true especially for our area! Mexico is not a bad spot, they get nailed pretty good each winter...not as far out as Parish, closer to jobs in Oswego and northern burbs of Syracuse, 30-35 minute commute (in good weather). There's a reason no one lives up near Parish, Adams etc...between Central Square and Watertown...no jobs, no economy, longer commute and a lot of snow. If you have flexibility and don't want to live in Deliverance country full time...I recommend Mexico area. Or get a "camp" (a very odd CNY thing) up on the Tug and spend weekends there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Mexico is not a bad spot, they get nailed pretty good each winter...not as far out as Parish, closer to jobs in Oswego and northern burbs of Syracuse, 30-35 minute commute (in good weather). There's a reason no one lives up near Parish, Adams etc...between Central Square and Watertown...no jobs, no economy, longer commute and a lot of snow. If you have flexibility and don't want to live in Deliverance country full time...I recommend Mexico area. Yeah, I regret buying in So. Oswego cty cause another 10 miles or so North, and I'm in mexico, what a shame. Who knew this 15yrs ago. when I purchased my home. I certainly didn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah, I regret buying in So. Oswego cty cause another 10 miles or so North, and I'm in mexico, what a shame. Who knew this 15yrs ago. when I purchased my home. I certainly didn't? I had an inkling this was the case but similar to you, family considerations...it's not all bad. I spent most of my life down the I-95 corridor from VA to CT. And so did you. That's tougher for snow lovers. Actually, in SE VA, I pretty much wrote off snow but we did get a few notable storms and winters. Which made it more special. Up here it all blends together. I won't b**ch about averaging 120"/yr... But I view LES as icing on the cake. I'd rather see a decent 6-12" synoptic storm (or hybrid) than the usual minor lake effect here. Ideally, we get synoptic and then LES afterwards for a while (before it moves north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Definitely a far cry from Jersey City winters thats for sure, lol! Nah, I guess whoever complains about 120" a yr avg should spend a couple yrs in the NYC metro area, where some yrs the first flakes aren't seen till mid January, and sometimes, like this yr, much earlier but its extremely anomalous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Got to Redfield about 11:20pm. About 5 miles out it was pouring snow! Road was a mess but made it only to find 16” of snow accumulated in the driveway and huge pile where they had been plowing the street. I barrelled over it and snow went over my hood. Got stuck for a minute but finally made it to the door to park. Not sure how much has fallen but 16” on driveway has to be today I would guess. After unpacking and shoveling, it stopped snowing.. ha! Waiting for the band to come back south!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I took a picture of the driveway but don’t know how to reduce the size. Anyone walk me through it? By the way, I will start measuring as of 12am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, swva said: Got to Redfield about 11:20pm. About 5 miles out it was pouring snow! Road was a mess but made it only to find 16” of snow accumulated in the driveway and huge pile where they had been plowing the street. I barrelled over it and snow went over my hood. Got stuck for a minute but finally made it to the door to park. Not sure how much has fallen but 16” on driveway has to be today I would guess. After unpacking and shoveling, it stopped snowing.. ha! Waiting for the band to come back south!! Excellent! Keep the reports coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, swva said: I took a picture of the driveway but don’t know how to reduce the size. Anyone walk me through it? By the way, I will start measuring as of 12am! I don't know what phone type you have but you can crop it which helps...or download an app...android has an app I use...Photo & Picture Resizer. Ther are others. Not sure on ijunk but probably something similar exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Peace, as I'm headed off to bed to dream of 3-4"/hr rates, lol, as that's the only way I'll ever see those rates, unless I chase, but not in my vehicle thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 My car made that path. I’ll take better pics tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, swva said: My car made that path. I’ll take better pics tomorrow.. Glad you made it ok, look forward to your posts tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro is going hog wild tonight on south shore. From tomorrow night through next week. With a couple clippers mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 All depends which way the wind blows, every ye is different..Not as much of a difference between Fulton and Mexico as it’s made to seem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Last 3 years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Brian, if you chase tomorrow, we can meet up if your interested as I'm a few miles from you brutha! I'll let you know. I can swing by on the way up. Not planning on a long day up there. We've all seen snow before. Also depends on whether the band looks healthy. Since KTYX radar no longer exists, hoping KBGM radar or the godawful WSYR radar can shed enough light on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: All depends which way the wind blows, every ye is different..Not as much of a difference between Fulton and Mexico as it’s made to seem.. Fulton does do well. I don't think it (usually) gets the longer duration single band events that park up north routinely, and Mexico/Scriba are on the southern edge of that, but Fulton I think benefits from proximity to the lake, but is not too close, still getting a frictional convergence advantage, for westerly flows off the Southeast end of lake. I've just experienced dozens of events being up in Scriba for work, where south of there has to wait for *whatever* happens. In those events, the pivot stays over Fulton area longer. Fulton also gets a funky secondary band sometimes, that often is dissipated by the time it gets to the i-81 corridor or gets directed a bit NE, on average. Interesting meso climate almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Since midnight the band has stayed up north! Not a flake here in southern Redfield since I have gotten settled. Hope it comes back south sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah, I regret buying in So. Oswego cty cause another 10 miles or so North, and I'm in mexico, what a shame. Who knew this 15yrs ago. when I purchased my home. I certainly didn't? I remember that time period well. Fulton used to get 2' totals on the reg. It IS odd that doesn't happen anymore. And you guys do get shafted during synoptic stuff sometimes. Downslope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Every mile matters lol 8-10 miles away is a big difference in lake effect country not to mention kfzy is 3-4 miles north of the city.. My OBS is usually much different then my eastern counterparts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Nws adjusted its forecast like I knew they would.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Nws adjusted its forecast like I knew they would.. Yep. IDK. The NW component seeming less important. South shore is gonna have to rely on tea kettle stuff. It's been a very disappointing week. Gone are the 2-3' totals across the SE corner that were advertised, in earnest, by several models. LES simply cannot be forecast along the south shore. Certainly not more than a day out. Like someone already said, a lot of it is oragraphic. I mean, look at the persistent axis off the two lakes. It's no surprise that the Erie band is always positioned Sw-NE, while Ontario is always due W-E. It has more to due with surface features than upper air stuff. Just a few thoughts while I can't sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 They dropped the totals for the Wayne Cty WSW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yep. The frustration continues. Not to mention NWS special wx statement releases every 15 mins for areas nobody lives in. Plus, synoptic storm is completely off the table unless you live in Boston. But, Erie got 54" so far. Mostly on Christmas. How crazy! Happy for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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