CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Per KBUF you should be calling out the National Guard by now. Don't get sucked in or you'll be down the funnel of despair!! Trust me I'm not but I'm trying to find something promising to justify their call of 8-12" that's still in my gridded forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Models consistant from wednsday this week to next Wednesday snow on south shore every day. Wont be heavy all the time but will add up. Lake shore to about 10 miles inland will have alot of snow. 2 3 inches every day type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: And just like that... Wow. Good for you! We got a special PnC update from KBGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Nothing like being sandwiched between two lake effect bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 22 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Nothing like being sandwiched between two lake effect bands. There's no doubt in my mind some of the rates in that Erie band are 4-5" an hour. I was in a solid 3-4" an hour earlier and the band didn't even look this good or as steady and consolidated. Just south of Holland is getting absolutely raked. Hope there's a spotter near there and hope the band stays in place there all night. I'll be working in Fredonia/Forestville tomorrow so hoping to see some serious snow there tomorrow as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 To bad we don't have many if any posters from the tug or western southern tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Unfortunately, there wasn't an SUV available to rent this evening, so I'm left to try to get one around 8 am here in Pa. Will have a 5 hour drive to the Tug Hill area, thereafter. Anticipating getting there by 1 pm. Majorly bummed I'm missing the overnight and morning hours. Hopefully, I can get into some intense bands tomorrow afternoon and evening. Regardless, I'll make an asserted effort to check-in and update conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 10 hours ago, danno said: Tailwater....very, very nice choice! Hi Danno! Thanks. I loved it there, as it was my accommodations/base camp during my previous LES event in 1/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Unfortunately, there wasn't an SUV available to rent this evening, so I'm left to try to get one around 8 am here in Pa. Will have a 5 hour drive to the Tug Hill area, thereafter. Anticipating getting there by 1 pm. Majorly bummed I'm missing the overnight and morning hours. Hopefully, I can get into some intense bands tomorrow afternoon and evening. Regardless, I'll make an asserted effort to check-in and update conditions. Stay safe, I've chased there several times and had several close calls, even totaled one of my vehicles on the Tug NE of Pulaski about 7 or 8 years ago. Post as many pics as you can but if it's too bad wait till it subsides, you can't drive in 4"/hr + on the Tug with absolutely nothing around to find your bearings, it's unlike anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The long range for friday and the weekend appears to have some hope to those in syracuse and rochester, plus accumulating snow for all CWA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 That'sthe setup that can give alot of people from Niagara county eastward alot of fluff type snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I may chase some tomorrow, not on the Tug Hill but south of there if the band is from Oswego to Mexico, Pulaski, it's only 25 minutes or so. Worth a spin for a couple of hours if it looks intense. I may take my older '08 Jeep Grand Cherokee, tires are newer than on my '15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Are the extreme northern Niagara and Orleans Cty communities seeing snow? Always wondered if they did with these westerly LE situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 58 minutes ago, tim123 said: To bad we don't have many if any posters from the tug or western southern tier I was in western southern tier all day. Craziest drive home in awhile but I made it. 1’ at holiday valley, 15-18” springville, 2’ in Colden Boston, 6-10” in Eden 4-8” in Hamburg. Snowfall rates of 2-4” per hour all afternoon and evening. Very strong winds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 If that band was over Metro Buffalo today we would have been looking at historic snowfall rates/totals. That band today was what KBUF was talking about last week before winds shifted 20-30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 I made my buddy go out and measure in Colden. 20" not 24. But I'm sure a lot of that has compacted and not 6 hour measurements. He says its still snowing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I noticed some models retract the band closer to the lake as winds vere wnw..The Euro And rgem have been advertising this, even the ggem has the heaviest precipitation along the lake shore .. Latest 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Pretty much what I’m talking about.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 1062 MB High pressure in midwest. Anyone know what the record is for USA? That high will literally kill all precipitation for most of the USA. Very cold, and terrible for LES and synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Terrible for synoptic. But lake snows should be abunant south se of lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 Springville from today’s les Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Damn, guess I will have to chase into southern Erie county to see some real snow when I am up there in Amherst to vist my mom's parents in a few days. Cold is nice, but I want to see some snow please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just bumping this from 3 days ago! What an absolute JOKE of a map. Fulton has probably seen an 1" if their lucky and that was from the synoptic event, lol! Still have no hope tomorrow for my immediate are as I think the band won't budge from Central Oswego County, even with the AF approach. If it does, it will drop the band completely through the area, then fire up multiple bands, smh, what a shame!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I don't think anyone south of Buffalo gets over 40", would be surprised. The LES setup will not generate nearly as intense bands as Ontario. I'd say max south of Buffalo 3' max east of Ontario 5-6'. 4-5" being reported in that band South of KBUF, easily, with less being reported in the band to the east of LO. #unpredictableSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 We could do decent tomorrow afternoon..Well this busted as well!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: 4-5" being reported in that band South of KBUF, easily, with less being reported in the band to the east of LO. #unpredictable Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk The band is just getting started for Ontario. The best band for Erie already happened. Ontario will be going until Thurs at least. That map still looks good IMO. We can't even see what the band looks like with the radar being down. Latest special weather statement says 2-4" per hour in that band still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The band is just getting started for Ontario. The best band for Erie already happened. Ontario will be going until Thurs at least. That map still looks good IMO. We can't even see what the band looks like with the radar being down. Latest special weather statement says 2-4" per hour in that band still.That things been going since early afternoon up in the Tug? Whatever, as it doesn't matter either way. If either of us was under it then it would matter, but not this time. Fulton is in 24-30"??? It has seen less than an 1"so far. This map will not verify anywhere other than the TUG, simple as that!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Just bumping this from 3 days ago! What an absolute JOKE of a map. Fulton has probably seen an 1" if their lucky and that was from the synoptic event, lol! Still have no hope tomorrow for my immediate are as I think the band won't budge from Central Oswego County, even with the AF approach. If it does, it will drop the band completely through the area, then fire up multiple bands, smh, what a shame! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk That is a pretty awful map as it's turning out. But we knew that going in. Bullseye is good east of L.O., not sure about Lake Erie. Seems like it's a bit S&E with bullseye but maybe not. The special expanse and amounts outside of the bullseye is what's always buggered with their maps for big LES events, IMO. We will get a few inches eventually. ARW is slower moving the L.O. Band south (at least on the last run I looked at), which is probably more correct than the other models. I still think 6-8" south of Fulton and north of Syr is likely over a 24-30 hr period. And that'll be all she wrote for the next 10 days, other than nuisance clipper snows here and there. The usual 2 and 3" to death! If you want the big snows, you gotta head to the Carolinas and SE Virginia! LMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 We all post model output that show's something for the, kFZY area through the CUSE, like this area should see some snow or something, when whoever lives in this area knows these models, haven't got a clue especially the HRRR, lol. It's almost comical watching some of these meso scale models trying to pinpoint a band from 2 days out, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Brian, if you chase tomorrow, we can meet up if your interested as I'm a few miles from you brutha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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