BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Most of lake still in 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 It blows my mind that buffalos snowiest year was also the year it froze over the earliest. Didn’t think that was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 76-77 it was at 100% ice cover by December 14th. That's just nuts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It blows my mind that buffalos snowiest year was also the year it froze over the earliest. Didn’t think that was possible. Crazy that even after it froze on the 14th we then had 53 consecutive days of at least a trace of snowfall from 12/20-2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The year we received 200” of snow at airport. How did they get that much with a frozen lake?!?! I posted some stats a year or 2 ago showing that BUF’s highest snowfall years generally correlate to Lake Erie completely freezing over, usually by the end of January. My guess is WNY sees enough synoptic storms move through that if we have consistently below to much below normal temps like we did that winter, the snow will add up big time, lake effect or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I posted some stats a year or 2 ago showing that BUF’s highest snowfall years generally correlate to Lake Erie completely freezing over, usually by the end of January. My guess is WNY sees enough synoptic storms move through that if we have consistently below to much below normal temps like we did that winter, the snow will add up big time, lake effect or not. Has to be the clipper pattern. That's by far Buffalos best pattern. We get lake enhancement ahead of them and lake effect behind, even with a frozen lake. A few inches every few days adds up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 And don’t forget that BUF gets enhancement from Lake Ontario in certain storm systems, sometimes quite a bit. Plus occasional bands from Ontario and even Huron. Not to mention the wide open 3 major Great Lakes upstream to add moisture to clippers. Have intense cold, will snow in WNY, frozen Lake Erie or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 19 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: That's just nuts!! GFS has a synoptic snow event from about 06Z for WNY and 12Z for the rest of NY on Christmas Day, then it transitions into a LES event, on a WNW wind! This Wed still looks good for a couple inches for areas ESE of LO. GFS definitely presses more with the cold to the EC, more so than both the EURO and the GGEM so its a battle to see which models handles the intrusion of tremendously cold air. Some places in the upper Mid West will see 850's approaching -35C, and that's just nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: GFS has a synoptic snow event from about 06Z for WNY and 12Z for the rest of NY on Christmas Day, then it transitions into a LES event, on a WNW wind! This Wed still looks good for a couple inches for areas ESE of LO. GFS definitely presses more with the cold to the EC, more so than both the EURO and the GGEM so its a battle to see which models handles the intrusion of tremendously cold air. Some places in the upper Mid West will see 850's approaching -35C, and that's just nuts! Lock it in!! Who knows details this far out...but that mega ridge blasting through eastern AK on the models around Christmas just screams something extreme for the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Ok had to fact check some print books since you can't always believe the internet... Few tidbits on that winter... *Lake Erie hit 32* and began freezing over on 12/14 *Lake Erie was 100% ice covered by 12/31 *107.2" fell AFTER Lake Erie was completely shut down. *Measurable snow fell every day in January except one day that only recorded a Trace. *Greatest 24 hour snowfall after the lake froze was 15.3" this storm also brought 50mph winds. *The following week another storm brought 4" and 55mph winds. *A few days later the multi day "official" blizzard hit. * 53 consecutive days of snow 12-20-2/10 * 45 consecutive days below 32* 12/26-2/8 I'm still trying to find how many consecutive days we had a snow pack. One article states we had our first metro lake storm on 11/29 and maintained that snow pack through the blizzard so thinking at least 75 straight day then. Nws chart shows 109 recorded days of at least 1" on the ground with 68 of those days measuring 12"+ on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 I hate extreme cold, not looking forward to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Long ways to go but someone is going to be measuring feet of new LES next week in my opinion. GFS and Euro show those signs most every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Gfs was the fantasy run of the year, to bad it’s over a week away..Canadian looks awesome as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Btw Gfs has 2”-4” on Friday before we rain Saturday and still has light snow for Xmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Canadian also has a couple inches on Friday as well as Xmas..Nothing wrong with padding the stats.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Nice little event Friday before the warm air intrudes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Some places in the upper Midwest see 2M temps approaching -30F, for daytime highs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Nws put snow/sleet in the forecast for Friday, raised pops for Xmas and calling for 1”-3” tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Sounds a bit more promising from KBUF! The aforementioned low will be tracking up the leading edge of a robust upper level trough that will dig across the central U.S. this weekend and shift to the Great Lakes as we move into next week, bringing with it an arctic blast as this trough is in fact associated with a piece of the polar vortex that dives south across Canada to the upper Great Lakes by Christmas night. In terms of what this means for our area, after a wet and warm Saturday, we can expect a cold front to cross the region Saturday night/Sunday morning. Guidance currently points to the potential development of snow across the forecast area Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, as the area gets trapped in between a developing coastal low and an Arctic front approaching from the northwest, that would, should this scenario pan out, result in a white Christmas. All of that said, this is still a week out, and there is still plenty of room for changes, especially given the significant pattern shift involved. Stayed tuned for more details as we move through this week... && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 A real White Christmas with moderate to at times heavy snow falling. Lets hope it comes to fruition !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: A real White Christmas with moderate to at times heavy snow falling. Lets hope it comes to fruition !! Think you guys further east have a better shot at something more significant than is in WNY. Here maybe a 2-4” deal which would actually be perfect to set the mood but not really disrupt travel. I’d gladly take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Think you guys further east have a better shot at something more significant than is in WNY. Here maybe a 2-4” deal which would actually be perfect to set the mood but not really disrupt travel. I’d gladly take it! 2 to 4; 3 to 5 no different, its what happens after that im geeked up about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: 2 to 4; 3 to 5 no different, its what happens after that im geeked up about. I'll take a synoptic 2-4 over a maybe foot of LES. Especially if it's on Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 I'd always take Lake Effect over synoptic. Rochester lake effect is usually high ratio fluff. (Colder temps/NW winds) Buffalo lake effect is usually lower QPF (Higher temps, SW winds) GFS has a pretty long duration lake effect snow event for Metro Buffalo all day Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'd always take Lake Effect over synoptic. Rochester lake effect is usually high ratio fluff. (Colder temps/NW winds) Buffalo lake effect is usually lower QPF (Higher temps, SW winds) GFS has a pretty long duration lake effect snow event for Metro Buffalo all day Christmas. I was just going to post that! But I'm getting the same you can only post less than 1.95MB files...oh well it does look tasty!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 11 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs was the fantasy run of the year, to bad it’s over a week away..Canadian looks awesome as well.. The 00z giveth and the 12z taketh away. Many more flip flops to come I’m sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Things have changed alot on Canadian and gfs much more wintry for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Models may be catching on to pattern better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z GFS says no to a prolonged cold spell between Christmas and NYE as it cuts a nasty low up through the lakes by day 10. Not the look we wanted. Also looks like a climatologically favored track for a high wind event this Saturday (23rd). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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