CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'm telling you right now, it's definitely gonna be one of you guys this yr from WNY that changes your Avatar, like I did last yr, so get ready! We'll have a vote in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 There might be hope for the nearby buffalo southtowns this evening. Radar from KCLE shows a pronunced northward shift to the lake Erie band in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I hope it works out that way Wolfie but I don't have any confidence in any models forecasting a band placement even from 24hrs out. Max said, 6-8" and he's thee most conservative of us all, actually more realistic than the rest of us, when it comes to accumulations, but he often busts low so that's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: West seneca is not 2 miles from Hamburg/OP. Takes me 20 mins to get to West Seneca. West seneca and orchard park are neighbors, angle rd and southwestern is the border for both. Hamburg agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Its looking like Tomorrow evening through Wednesday we'll get our chance at several inches so we wait. If KBGM radar is picking up the LO band, the way it is, then those clouds gotta be up there above at least 8000ft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Lake Erie snows headed North towards Southtowns just to the South of West Seneca by a couple 2-3 city blocks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I hope it works out that way Wolfie but I don't have any confidence in any models forecasting a band placement even from 24hrs out. Max said, 6-8" and he's thee most conservative of us all, actually more realistic than the rest of us, when it comes to accumulations, but he often busts low so that's a good thing Ha! I just undercut expectations a bit to keep it real. I do like looking at the SR model placements of LES that wolfie posts. Seems like they are usually a bit too far south on westerly or WNW flow unless there's a pronounced wind shift. So. Oswego county should do well, 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 New Euro now, instead of dropping South of us with the next clipper, like it was advertising the past couple runs, really suppresses it now to practically nothing. The South Shore looks good from Thursday on with a light NNW flow for days it seems. If we don't get what is supposed to materialize between 06z wed-Thursday morn then we're toast and this great pattern will have been a dud, for areas SE of LO but we're a long way from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 Absolutely insane drive to holiday. 3-4” per hour at one point. Foot of new snow already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 So much crying in this thread. Just get out an enjoy the snow we have, it doesn't take much to make it beautiful. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Shifting north! Let's see how far she goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just South of the city Im thinking, but it would be nice to see it hit the metro area for a few hrs, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 31 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Shifting north! Let's see how far she goes! Southern edge of that band lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just like clockwork, stops over Hamburg and OP, literally 5 miles to my south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: New Euro now, instead of dropping South of us with the next clipper, like it was advertising the past couple runs, really suppresses it now to practically nothing. The South Shore looks good from Thursday on with a light NNW flow for days it seems. If we don't get what is supposed to materialize between 06z wed-Thursday morn then we're toast and this great pattern will have been a dud, for areas SE of LO but we're a long way from that. Well, KBGM has pretty much thrown in the towel for LES other than in northern Oneida county. Can't say i disagree. A stray inch or two possible south of Fulton before the next Clipper later this week. Looks like we will end up with near avg snow for December, near 30" total. Could be worse. I think expectations got too high with those euro and gfs clown maps we saw. Edit: just perused 12Z Euro...dry as a bone and cold here. But...Congrats Flemish Cap! Shipping lanes look to get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 We got some decent rates here as the band past through. Picked up a quick inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Just like clockwork, stops over Hamburg and OP, literally 5 miles to my south.... We’re at the in-laws in Gardenville this afternoon. We can see that band right there, so close that we can almost reach out and touch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 I’m actually scared to drive back in that band. 219 is going to be complete whiteout for most of the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just got a quick hit here in northern OP but my gosh Dunkirk to Silver Creek is getting jacked up. Almost non stop convection in that core has to be 3-4"/hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It happens all the time Max and I'm really getting sick and tired of being either to far North or too damn far South. When I first moved here Fulton was a hot spot for LES but man things have changed big time the last decade or so. I mean I'm 7 miles to the ESE of Fulton and we can't get a band to sit over us for more than an hr or two. It's absolutely pathetic and I knew KBGM was gonna throw in the towel on this one, as they usually do, but KBUF will keep the stupid warnings up, just to keep our hopes alive. Whatever, Comgats to the thirty ppl who live in Redfield, may you get 6ft+! We can't even get one pathetic synoptic clipper to take a favorable track for once, nevermind a coastal. When there's a cutter forecasted though 10 days in advance, you can lock that **** in, cause its most likely rain! The other funny thing is, New England wasn't even in play with this last event until 3 days ago, and they cash in more than we do, WTF, seriously tough? Is it asking for to much for it to snow, where its supposed to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 That band off to our North will probably be dropping snow in VT, 250 miles to its East, but it won't hit us 18 miles to its SE, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 And just like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 If the late week clipper goes north of us... I'll join the toothless wonders on the tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Snowing heavily in hamburg by the old root 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Just got a quick hit here in northern OP but my gosh Dunkirk to Silver Creek is getting jacked up. Almost non stop convection in that core has to be 3-4"/hr... Just came back from Boston, was right in the Valley and there was an easy 12”+ and snowing at least 3” an hour. They are getting raked. I can’t even imagine what it looks like on top of Cole road or somewhere with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 34 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: If the late week clipper goes north of us... I'll join the toothless wonders on the tug Easy now! I don't know whether to take that as a compliment;) I'm only half way up the Tug and have all my teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, danno said: Easy now! I don't know whether to take that as a compliment;) I'm only half way up the Tug and have all my teeth. All of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 KBUF is still confident we see something tomorrow night through Wednesday but I don't know what to believe anymore, seriously! Can't trust the models anymore cause their always wrong, with at least placement, and both NWS offices cant even agree on totals in areas such as No. Onondaga and So. Oswego counties. They always have different totals forecasted by both offices with 0 collaboration between the two. disco Bands on both lakes are now expected to shift south as flow subtly veers to the west-northwest. While this should cause further weakening of the Lake Erie bands, the Lake Ontario band will continue to have access to a long fetch of low-level moisture, and we may see some reasonably robust snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr persisting as the band shifts south on to the south shore of Lake Ontario. With Wayne county falling into the end of the fetch of this band, there is a decent chance they could see warning amounts of 5- 9" Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As such, have posted a Winter Weather Watch for the county, while Oswego and Northern Cayuga remain covered by the ongoing Lake Effect Warning. Lake effect snows will continue through the day Wednesday, even as flow takes on a more northwesterly component. This should cut down on rates significantly, particularly on Lake Erie, where snow showers will become increasingly scattered and disorganized. Multi- band activity may remain more robust on Lake Ontario, particularly if a Georgian Bay connection can emerge, as suggested by the GFS, and it is not out of the question that we may see 2-4" of fluff south of Lake Ontario. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Man I would love to chase that band to my north if I had a 4X4 or even an AWD vehicle but not a FWD sedan, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: KBUF is still confident we see something tomorrow night through Wednesday but I don't know what to believe anymore, seriously! Can't trust the models anymore cause their always wrong, with at least placement, and both NWS offices cant even agree on totals in areas such as No. Onondaga and So. Oswego counties. They always have different totals forecasted by both offices with 0 collaboration between the two. disco Bands on both lakes are now expected to shift south... We'll see I guess. Per KBUF you should be calling out the National Guard by now. Don't get sucked in or you'll be flushed down the funnel of despair!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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