BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 52 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I think you would be good either way, lol, up thataway! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yeah, models are in pure chaos right now. The Ensembles are too. We went from a 50-60 degree torch Christmas to a 25-30 degree day with Lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Gfs for Xmas night.. Ggem mostly misses us to the SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Models look blah for Wednesday, have trouble even getting below freezing on all models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Models look blah for Wednesday, have trouble even getting below freezing on all models..Unfortunately were gonna have to wait for this EPO positive spike to pass!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 This is absolutely atrocious!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Yup.. Have only gone with an inch or less southeast of Erie and 2-4 inches across Oswego and southern Lewis counties east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will have returned to a little below average with highs mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Wednesday followed by a cold night with lows ranging from the single digits above freezing to teens Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 This is absolutely atrocious!Sent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkWhat's atrocious is that all pre Christmas snowpack will, no doubt, be wiped out. We'll once again, have to start from scratch, to replenish the pack, but once the Cold Front pushes through on Christmas day, dry arctic air will engulf the area with minimal moisture to work with, lol. Sorry for us snowmobilers in CNY.Mr Bastardi needs to re-evaluate his pre Christmas predictions of a probable white Christmas for the lower Lakes, cause he's certain a wave forms and rides the front and nails the Mid Atlantic and the NE followed by a resurgence of LES so we'll see I suppose. If the Euro is holding any energy back over the 4 corners, as it usually does, then they'll be a better chance of the front making it to the EC, but if all the energy comes out, then all bets are off as this cuts up through MI, lol! What a complete joke right before Xmas.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Pretty stoked that the NWS is in the process of fixing the winter summary page!! This will give us the last 15 years of spotter reports including several a year from Fulton I’m big into past weather and statistics.. US National Weather Service Buffalo NY Hi Mike, during some website work we lost some pages that are still in the process of being fixed. We will try to get this page and all the summaries back up and running as soon as possible. I will try to have an update for you in the next day or two. I apologize for the inconvenience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 You guys need to start a panic room!!! Have a drink this evening, relax and enjoy that we have been awefully active to this point. Plus the ensembles and the last 4 runs of GFS are very cold with multiple lp's. Thing will be fine, now step back off the ledge!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Getting our 1st taste of some FZDZ , nice glaze on the vehicle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Getting our 1st taste of some FZDZ , nice glaze on the vehicle..Yep, crunchy snow, gotta love it!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 You guys need to start a panic room!!! Have a drink this evening, relax and enjoy that we have been awefully active to this point. Plus the ensembles and the last 4 runs of GFS are very cold with multiple lp's. Thing will be fine, now step back off the ledge!!!I bet if you purchased a brand new snowmobile in 2016, and still haven't been able to get a good ride in as of yet, you'd be just as pissed, lol. It's right on que too, as the season starts, lol, the snow disappears, like clockwork!. That system that's cutting is a lock so if you wanna enjoy it, you can, but I won't. My ledge days are reserved for LES busts anyway, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 By the time it’s cold enough for snow the winds are out of the NW and you get this.. Does look “healthier “ than it had.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Lol no sled here, skiier yes! Always wanted a snowmobile but no land, no friends that own so stuck to the slopes only. Check this out from cohen a little bit ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GFS has another nice Christmas day run for just about all of NY state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Tell me what's more depressing winter weather than the current 34F and drizzle at my place. Go ahead, I dare you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, cny rider said: Tell me what's more depressing winter weather than the current 34F and drizzle at my place. Go ahead, I dare you. Especially the week before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: 12z GFS has another nice Christmas day run for just about all of NY state! That cutter on the 23rd may be a blessing in disguise for a white Christmas morning! We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 hours ago, cny rider said: Tell me what's more depressing winter weather than the current 34F and drizzle at my place. Go ahead, I dare you. 33 and drizzle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Found the twitter account for the Redfield spotter. https://twitter.com/CYerdon/status/942881642749849601 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Latest discussion doesn't seem as exciting as the wording yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Snowpack took a huge hit today, went from 13.5" this morning down to 5" now. There's no way this pack will last till Christmas even in Orchard Park or Hamburg with all the warmth coming the rest of the week. There will definitely be piles of snow left but grass will certainly be visible. Oh well, maybe we'll have a white New Years, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Better make this cold shot count! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 There is still hope for a white Christmas. If it happens, it'll happen late Xmas eve or early Christmas Day, which would be amazing. Our chances are still pretty low. I'd put Roc at about a 35% of an inch plus. 60% with a dusting plus. Hope is alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Tom Niziol is a great forecaster, but Lake Erie is not gonna freeze in a week. if it did, that would be horrible for you guys in WNY. Does anyone know the earliest it ever did freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Tom Niziol is a great forecaster, but Lake Erie is not gonna freeze in a week. if it did, that would be horrible for you guys in WNY. Does anyone know the earliest it ever did freeze? 76-77 it was at 100% ice cover by December 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Tom Niziol is a great forecaster, but Lake Erie is not gonna freeze in a week. if it did, that would be horrible for you guys in WNY. Does anyone know the earliest it ever did freeze? Yeah Lake Erie has another month left with consistent cold to freeze. Even when it does we can get lake enhanced. It was 98% frozen a few years ago during Valentine’s Day and saw some of the strongest rates of the year with 6” of enhanced snow during a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 With nothing to track this week, thought I would take a look back at the pattern we just broke out of. Heading into December, all signs pointed to a solid winter pattern setting up after the first week of the month. It seems like most "normal" winters have 3 or 4 good patterns lock in where the bulk of our snow falls. And most of these patterns last from 10-14 days. At least for BUF, I would say the recent pattern definitely produced, even with the absence of any significant individual storms. Some highlights: * 13 straight days with at least a trace of snow recorded (Dec 5-17) * 11 straight days of below normal temps, with a 3-day stretch (Dec 13-15) averaging about -14 * 20" of snowfall over the period, which is about 20% of the seasonal average * 11 days and counting with at least 1" of snow on the ground The far western basin of Lake Erie was iced over as of today. Looking on the positive side...the upcoming stretch of temps at or above average will put a temporary halt on new ice and keep Lake Erie open for business when the next good pattern hits. Not only that, but unlike some winters it looks like we won't have to wait too long for the next good pattern to hit (Christmas Eve?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 76-77 it was at 100% ice cover by December 14th. The year we received 200” of snow at airport. How did they get that much with a frozen lake?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Tom Niziol is a great forecaster, but Lake Erie is not gonna freeze in a week. if it did, that would be horrible for you guys in WNY. Does anyone know the earliest it ever did freeze? I can remember some years it being mostly frozen over by mid January, not sure what the earliest a total freeze over is but I would think it would be the first week of January at the earliest, I can't see it freezing over in the month of December unless there were some downright frigid temps for a prolonged period of time.Dont think we have to worry about it freezing over next week but if stays cold for a couple more weeks our lake effect season will be done ... already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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