CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That high is going to end the fun. It sure is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Omega values Monday evening through Tuesday are insane ( during periods, not the whole time)! Gonna be some insane snowfall rates in that band! Ty, what do you think, Winter Storm Watch for Onondaga for tomorrow night through Monday? Oswego for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I dont buy no snow on south shore for middle end of week. It goin to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: bufkit soundings utilizing which model? Bufkit doesn't have soundings. When you load bufkit you have to input a dataset. OSU taught me how to use Bufkit last winter. That's what I meant by any model data? Ive been using it since 2008 while studying at OSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Thinking watch for monroe county east to tug hill. 5 to 9 inches for christmas storm. Ofcourse buffalo will put up a wwa though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: I dont buy no snow on south shore for middle end of week. It goin to snow Yup, latest runs also have winds from 330-360 degrees later in the period too with extreme deltas. Moisture isnt great but isnt awful. There will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Dr Skubis taught me how to use Bufkit if you can believe that one. The only one that would know Skubis or Stamm is OSUMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 Anyone know where George has been? (LEK) He is my favorite poster on these forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 unless there are other OSU MEt alumni that frequent this forum but I doubt it. Ballentine retired I believe but not certain and steiger took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Rain pretty much finished, mostly (if not all) sleet..The snow pack did well absorbing the rain, didn’t lose much..(not that I had much lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: I dont buy no snow on south shore for middle end of week. It goin to snow The globals will not pick up on the type of snow that has the potential to fall on south shore next week. The stuff will be pure fluff, it will be tough for even the highest resolutions models to pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Anyone know where George has been? (LEK) He is my favorite poster on these forums. Haven't heard from him since last season during Novembers snow blitz but that was it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Thinking watch for monroe county east to tug hill. 5 to 9 inches for christmas storm. Ofcourse buffalo will put up a wwa though I think KROC gets a boost from Lake Ontario Christmas morning before winds back to west and then WSW. I'm feeling bullish...8-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Haven't heard from him since last season during Novembers snow blitz but that was it?? Yeah, thats been a big loss. I thought he might have popped in for the March 15th storm too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Tea Kettle type snows are some of the hardest to forecast as land breezes come into account and what now. A pretty awesome phenomenon that happens along the Lake Shore. Did a lab about tea Kettle snows while at Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Redfield sounding Monday Evening as the band starts to head North towards Redfield! Wicked sounding Incredible snow rates if this is anywhere near correct, seriously 5-6"/hr easy within the center of this band wherever it is at this time. Edit: look at how the Omega values intersect the RH as well as the snow growth region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 And of course the euro shows like .10” for Xmas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Straight ip now with flakes mixed in on its way east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The lake effect is nw-wnw on Monday morning like all guidance then w-wsw until late Tuesday night, drops south overnight and stays put till wed night before going NW..(multi band) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: And of course the euro shows like .10” for Xmas lol You serious? I haven't looked yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Not sure why euro is so low in Christmas storm. Kinda concerning. But its basically every model has better moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I have seen tea kettle drop a foot in in 6 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Really pouring snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro having problems?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Look where the LP is on the Gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It doesn't make sense the whole evolution of the system so I'm chucking it, lol. GFS actually outperformed the EURO from 10 days out on the current trough placement and strength, so the GFS does win sometimes and I think this is one of those times. Euro also caved to the GFS with the last event. The the GFS is on a role as of late but I'm j/k about chucking it as all model output has something to show us about the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro definitely can run to dry, ggem makes sense given a double barrel low structure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: I have seen tea kettle drop a foot in in 6 hours before. That compacts to an inch in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: It doesn't make sense the whole evolution of the system so I'm chucking it, lol. GFS actually outperformed the EURO from 10 days out on the current trough placement and strength, so the GFS does win sometimes and I think this is one of those times. Euro also caved to the GFS with the last event. The the GFS is on a role as of late but I'm j/k about chucking it as all model output has something to show us about the pattern. All the models have been having issues dealing with the upcoming pattern. Probably that ridiculously strong high disrupting everything, all speculation of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: It doesn't make sense the whole evolution of the system so I'm chucking it, lol. GFS actually outperformed the EURO from 10 days out on the current trough placement and strength, so the GFS does win sometimes and I think this is one of those times. Euro also caved to the GFS with the last event. The the GFS is on a role as of late but I'm j/k about chucking it as all model output has something to show us about the pattern. What is odd is that the Euro was doing well with this storm about 4-5 days out, now it loses it at the end. The GFS had virtually no storm at 4-5 days out but now it seems locked in and the Euro is the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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