wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 18z Gfs was about 7 degrees to warm at 3z, not that it will matter much lol 3k nam is right on the nose and has a max of 34 tomorrow, a nice cold rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 And we have liquid falling from the sky, not sure if it’s freezing on contact or not, yet..Temp of 29.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 10 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Whats your take on this upcoming pattern change Delta, that is if you care to share? Sorry I've been such a lurker.... Just such a busy week with Christmas, traveling, guests, last minute shopping..haha. Anyway, it's an incredible pattern. That big storm lurking on the GFS at day 7ish looks interesting and one of the main contributors to those absurd outputs. The lake effect parameters for the southeast shore look nearly as good as one could hope, moisture for days and extreme deltas, hopefully spilling back towards Monroe county if we can go a little Northerly or hook up with Gbay. This forum has been great/active lately and there wasnt much more than I could add, (especially because I primarily hug the GFS which was being discounted, lol). Anyway we have a nice spread of knowledge and people that use different models so its been a great team effort tracking this significant arctic intrusion. I'll be the first to admit that many of you are more familiar with the online products than I am these days. Anyway, the pattern screams action for at least 10 days. Isolated places South and East of Ontario will be measuring in feet and I expect the Chautauqua ridge to score big as well. Late in the week winds really die down while decent parameters remain so heavy isolated tea kettle snow seem plausible which then segues into hopefully the big synoptic event. Anyway, lets get back tonight through Christmas. My backyard is right at 32 right now. The critical thicknesses really jumped north the last two hours as can be corroborated with radar. Looks like the ice threat is reduced, at least for places south of the escarpment. Christmas is finally a lock in regards to being white and getting whiter with nearly every run. It's a great week to be a weather enthusiast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Hrrr never gets roc above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 41 minutes ago, tim123 said: Thinking some areas may be surprised about how much ice there is tomorrow morning How close are you to the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Walworth. Glaze showing on trees now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hrrr never gets roc above 32. I must say that I'm quite intrigued now, I really hadnt been watching closely today but now I see that a lot of models have finally trended a lot colder. teetering on a little ice event here. side note - Guests are settled for the next few days so I can start tracking things again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Yes hrrr giving roc .4 tenths of a inch of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 If we get that and that' a big if and 3 to 5 inches of heavy wet snow could be a few issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 There is a chance we get hit on overnight Tuesday with a decent LES event here. Models have been trending that way before winds go WNW/NW. But once that happens off Erie dry air is abundant. There is a window on Tuesday for extreme LES off of Erie, where that hits will be the question, and it won't last long. Moisture will be much better off of Ontario, along with multi lake connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Nws did up ice accums to .2 tenths for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Things look good for the Thruway towns. Just a heads up, areas SE of Roc are still living on a prayer for a white Christmas. Areas from Elmira and Ithaca towards Binghamton only showing a couple inches between now and the 25th. That's cutting it close! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It's gonna be some week of weather tracking that's for sure! No sleep for the foreseeable future, I can see it now, but I haven't seen actual snow fall on both Christmas eve and Christmas day since 2002, the year I moved here. 10" fell on that day, then it literally snowed for the whole month of January in the Cuse, except for 2 days that month. I was in absolute awe, as I never seen those kinds of snowfall rates before, let alone that much snow, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Things look good for the Thruway towns. Just a heads up, areas SE of Roc are still living on a prayer for a white Christmas. Areas from Elmira and Ithaca towards Binghamton only showing a couple inches between now and the 25th. That's cutting it close! Good luck! The NAM and new GFS are a little further west and more closed off. Only a few ticks away from a winter storm warning at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 New gfs run really never develops a low pressure for next weekend Just A string out mess on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 That drops close to 2ft+ in and around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 May have spoke too soon looks like its waiting on energy coming in from great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: New gfs run really never develops a low pressure for next weekend Just A string out mess on the coast I see that, but it also did something similar for the Christmas storm and now look where we are. Lots of time for that one still, hopefully we don't lose it altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Yup lots of time on that One. Gfs does have a east bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Not often u see the Gfs look like this, with more to come..Just hoping the band isn’t sitting just north of me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Something is amiss on the GFS as its 2M temp forecast is already a huge bust, not that it matters much, but something is wrong as temps at 00Z Sunday are 31F then rise to 34 at 06Z Sunday which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Something is not right that's all I'm sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, tim123 said: New gfs run really never develops a low pressure for next weekend Just A string out mess on the coast GooFuS playing it's reindeer games...to be expected. Along with other models. It had this thing a few days back and of course it will hunt around for a solution, like other NWP. Will be fun (?) to observe it's gyrations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Something is amiss on the GFS as its 2M temp forecast is already a huge bust, not that it matters much, but something is wrong as temps at 00Z Sunday are 31F then rise to 34 at 06Z Sunday which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Something is not right that's all I'm sayin. All the CO2 coming out of Mario Cuomo's assmouth is messing with the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: All the CO2 coming out of Mario Cuomo's assmouth is messing with the model. Don't even get me started on him, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Gfs like playing cha cha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Still below freezing in dansville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 Lots of precip on the UKIE. That's a decent snowstorm if it stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Probabilities for system #2 Sat & #3 XMasEve (wrong order below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 Winds go Southwest on Tuesday with very strong band of LES over Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 While I think those off of Ontario do better than us the next few weeks I think we will cash in as well. Tomorrow: 3-6" for WNY Sunday Night/Monday: 2-4" for WNY Tuesday: 4-8" of Lake Effect Snow from Airport to Southtowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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