CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 If there was a HP instead of LP everywhere to the NW of this developing wave we'd be golden, but our luck, there's one off the Coast pumping in Warm air, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Buffalo NWS went from possible historic LES environment for Buffalo a few days ago to WNW flow for Tuesday/Weds with marginal conditions in WNY. Great for Fulton/Oswego/Syracuse but just shows how terrible the Buf NWS has been this year. I've been more correct then they have this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 They have been terrible this year. Thats what happens when you ride the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Rochester looks like its best shot of lake snow is middle of week as winds go nw to north then to ne. Low density fluff but adds up quick. Could see 6 to 12 from these tea kettle type events up to 15 miles inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looks like a gfs steroid run coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 KBGM Fairly stable pattern with a broad and deep upper level trough over the eastern US. Behind the system Monday cold air comes from the northwest setting off lake effect snow that lasts into Thursday. A 280 flow Monday night shifts to 290 Tuesday and stays there. The best snow bands will be at the start with better moisture but this changes little too. With the low level flow Monday night the band will be in Oneida County then shift slightly to Onondaga, Oneida, and Madison Counties. Not a good sign for KBUF, but it can and will probably change again. I think we all get some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Well, according to the new weekies, a spectacular warm up is on the table, beginning the 2nd week of January and lasts for a month with much above normal temps. Is it believable, not so sure yet, but if you want Winter to continue through Feb and March don't root for the Euro, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: KBGM Fairly stable pattern with a broad and deep upper level trough over the eastern US. Behind the system Monday cold air comes from the northwest setting off lake effect snow that lasts into Thursday. A 280 flow Monday night shifts to 290 Tuesday and stays there. The best snow bands will be at the start with better moisture but this changes little too. With the low level flow Monday night the band will be in Oneida County then shift slightly to Onondaga, Oneida, and Madison Counties. Not a good sign for KBUF, but it can and will probably change again. I think we all get some love. Lake Erie be trolling BUF MEN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Well, according to the new weekies, a spectacular warm up is on the table, beginning the 2nd week of January and lasts for a month with much above normal temps. Is it believable, not so sure yet, but if you want Winter to continue through Feb and March don't root for the Euro, lol! #CFSV2 crew checking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 KBUF should be thumping snow tomorrow morning with this sounding! Only thing is snow flake size may not be that ideal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: KBUF should be thumping snow tomorrow morning with this sounding! Only thing is snow flake size may not be that ideal! Got a sounding for ROC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Got a sounding for ROC? I was just gonna ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I was just gonna ask Winds just went S at ROC... South shore is still holding on to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Very heavy sn for KROC, while we rain here in KSYR, but that's ok. Ideal flake size as the omega intersects the RH as well as the snow growth region, between -12C and -17C, with flakes starting as high as H500 with quite a bit of riming, lol! its a quick 2-4" perhaps or a bit higher but its gone by 00Z, so a good 6hr deformation area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Don' know how reliable hrrr is but it' giving roc area up to half inch of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Don' know how reliable hrrr is but it' giving roc area up to half inch of freezing rain Unless those winds shift back NE, ROC will be above 32 overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Fulton usually needs 290-300 flow , ksyr needs more northerly and about 310.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Winds are generally out of east or north east all the way to pa border. Winds are light so may just be a local thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 26,NE wind and fog of all things at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 There will be lake effect snow southeast of the lakes Tuesday into Wednesday with significant additional accumulation possible, especially off Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will likely be focused near Oswego county which will benefit from connections to upstream lakes. Temperatures aloft will be plenty cold (around -20C at 850mb), and the moderate WNW flow favors a singular band down the length of Lake Ontario which can produce heavy localized accumulation. Finally, the pattern matches events in the past which have resulted in heavy snow in this area. Model guidance is in good agreement which increases forecast confidence, however there is still some uncertainty in the location of the band and subtle upstream lake connections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Question. The 3km nam shows rain for the area on the simulated radar but also shows snow and sleet accumulation at same Time. Is it because the model does not have enough resolution or is it confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I know it says includes sleet but its simulated radar shows rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3k nam has the changeover around 2 pm for sw Oswego co., several hours of moderate snow..Nws now has a couple inches in the forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Nam shows a solid 3 to 6 inches tomorrow from buffalo to rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3k Nam. Probably a 2-4" event. Gonna be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Total accumulation 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Looks like a white Christmas. Most areas Will have a fresh 6 to 10 inches on the ground Christmas day. With snow falling Christmas morning. Have not had that in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Thinking some areas may be surprised about how much ice there is tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Fulton usually needs 290-300 flow , ksyr needs more northerly and about 310.. Redfield usually does well on 270-280. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I’ve reworked some Christmas stuff and should be there around 11pm on the 25th now. It better be rewarding :)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 This week or so has the potential to be memorable...4 synoptic systems and possibly assbuster LES on WNW flow for a change. Make it so. Never changed over here today. About 4-5" total. ****ty dendrites for the most part though. If the toothless people up north had internet connections we might of got Intel on the area of better dynamics and aligned snow growth. But no, they're all Deliverance types up on the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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