wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gfs has a nice little event Xmas morning..(4”-6” type at 10-1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Canadian has more of a wnw wind next week. Better for roc to syr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs has a nice little event Xmas morning..(4”-6” type at 10-1) Now that we're just a few hours from 48 hours out, the 12z GFS has the Sunday lp in southern PA then transferring its energy to a second LP just off the coast leaving a baroclinic zone over the CWA...the accums that the gfs spits out is 7" between the inch or two tomorrow and whatever falls xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Montague radar is back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS has LES from Christmas Day into early AM Thursday over Oswego. Although it’s definitely not the best model for LES. It can at least give an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Yea, Canadian and Gfs both look real good for tues, down this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yea, Canadian and Gfs both look real good for tues, down this way.. Might have to bank everything on Tuesday/Wednesday as end of the week looks pretty dry right now. Long ways out though. Hoping I can get there before the good stuff starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gfs has storm next weekend but is starting to do the cha cha. Typical of gfs. Bet it comes back to original idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I like the Nam's snowfall output which ends 00Z Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs has storm next weekend but is starting to do the cha cha. Typical of gfs. Bet it comes back to original idea Which original idea Tim? The 67" of snow idea? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It also accounts for whatever melts between now and before the changeover occurs sometime tomorrow afternoon. Too bad the NAO wasn't negative as this system would get blocked, and allow it to strengthen much more than it currently is. Its a very fast mover, unfortunately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I like the Nam's snowfall output which ends 00Z Christmas day. Looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The LES for tues-wed all depends on where the secondary pops off the coast. if it pops further South, the winds should start off from the NW then transition into a W-WNWerly LES event as the system heads for the maritimes, but if it pops off of Nantucket or somewhere like that, then a Westerly flow would be favored so we'll see. There's no way to pin point wind trajectory this far in advance, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Does anyone know of a website that has local temp and wind measurements, not extrapolations? Until I get a station mounted on my house, I'm at a loss for temp and winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Which original idea Tim? The 67" of snow idea? Lol Yes bust if not 67 inches. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=bigsfc&underlay=0&source=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=bigsfc&underlay=0&source=1# Thanks, but I should've been more specific. I'm talking local-local...like a reading from along the S. shore in Webster, or Ontario...very specific. Wasn't sure if there was an amateur/enthusiast site that has local measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 KBUF is at 28 degrees with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Thanks, but I should've been more specific. I'm talking local-local...like a reading from along the S. shore in Webster, or Ontario...very specific. Wasn't sure if there was an amateur/enthusiast site that has local measurements. I think you want to check out weather underground that has all the local residents weather stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think you want to check out weather underground that has all the local residents weather stations. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Whats your take on this upcoming pattern change Delta, that is if you care to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Global models doing horribly with current temp vs forecasted, way too warm! Here's 18Z 2M temps, surface. Current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 dividing line looks to be just S of rt 5, using NY Mesonet map, it's easy to click on different locations to pull up temps, Fayetteville and Jordan currently low 20's, Tully +10 at 31 http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=FAYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Well we got through the first event without any mixing with temps remaining in the lower 20's. I don't think we dodge tomorrow's bullet as there may be a period of rain, which may be heavy at times, then transitions into a rn/sn mix then to snow but by the time the cold rushes in the moisture has been stripped from the top down so basically we may not see any more accumulation until Christmas eve into Christmas day, then LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Well we got through the first event without any mixing with temps remaining in the lower 20's. I don't think we dodge tomorrow's bullet as there may be a period of rain, which may be heavy at times, then transitions into a rn/sn mix then to snow but by the time the cold rushes in the moisture has been stripped from the top down so basically we may not see any more accumulation until Christmas eve into Christmas day, then LES. Kbuf just mentioned the metro might start as snow tomorrow and accumulate 3 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Valid 5AM tomorrow morning for KFZY, just ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Here is part of the blurb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 It doesn’t wanna stop snowing on the euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Kbuf just mentioned the metro might start as snow tomorrow and accumulate 3 to 5 inches. I think you guys have a better chance of seeing accumulating snow tomorrow than we do TBH! Most globals have trended warmer with 850'2 getting to +4C in and around KSYR, while KBUF is at +2C but dropping fast with a Northerly wind so you flip much faster than we do. Heres both upper air soundings. KBUF 5AM KFZY same time! Horrible look for us, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro has a big snowstorm New Year’s Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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