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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted

And before you mention the low being too far off the coast GFS is in same position also with the secondary low near Pittsburgh as shown on the model above. Honestly these two models are the only ones that consistently outperform the others so as long as it's showing up consistently then i will become more interested by early next week. Plus Syracuse would get crushed!

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yes unfortunately calling for lots of dry air after the moisture is stripped away from departing trough Monday and Tuesday. 

The theme of the year. Call me a pessimist all you want but I still bet KBUF sees less than 6" (maybe 5.5" now since we probably got 1/2" of snow overnight)  the rest of December. This is not a conducive pattern for them at all. Winds will either be W to NW so the snow will all be to their north and south, the storm that you think is going to back the ends more SW is much further east in the latest runs which bring the winds more WNW and even NW than WSW. Also I don't see anything exciting at all from a synoptic standpoint unless you look at the day 10 fantasy GFS storm.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

shes filling in nicely!

COD Meteorology -- NEXRAD Single Site Radar Data.mhtml

3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

The theme of the year. Call me a pessimist all you want but I still bet KBUF sees less than 6" (maybe 5.5" now since we probably got 1/2" of snow overnight)  the rest of December. This is not a conducive pattern for them at all. Winds will either be W to NW so the snow will all be to their north and south, the storm that you think is going to back the ends more SW is much further east in the latest runs which bring the winds more WNW and even NW than WSW. Also I don't see anything exciting at all from a synoptic standpoint unless you look at the day 10 fantasy GFS storm.

Sometimes its good to vent, lol!

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Moving in fast!

ptyp.gif?1513950735973

The one thing I can't stand about Western New York is how quickly the warm air moves in. Wish there was like a mountain range somewhere between us in Ohio with Lake Ontario being higher in elevation instead of lower to avoid subsidence/compression. 

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Mixing in southern Monroe county. About 2". It'll be gone soon. 

Lots of questions with forecast. A white Christmas still not a lock.. but we could also have a foot. Crazy pattern. Right on mix line. 

Toronto had 5" last night. So there's that. They never win! Lol

The returns looked much nicer on the northern shore all night. HRRR was on to that northern push.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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Posted
1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

The theme of the year. Call me a pessimist all you want but I still bet KBUF sees less than 6" (maybe 5.5" now since we probably got 1/2" of snow overnight)  the rest of December. This is not a conducive pattern for them at all. Winds will either be W to NW so the snow will all be to their north and south, the storm that you think is going to back the ends more SW is much further east in the latest runs which bring the winds more WNW and even NW than WSW. Also I don't see anything exciting at all from a synoptic standpoint unless you look at the day 10 fantasy GFS storm.

Is this the old scott? First off kbuf picked up 2.1" to this point,  thats A. B) we are expecting 3 to 4 inches tomorrow and 2 to 5 area wide sunday night so your totals are gone already. C) even wivb was talking about next weeks storm fantasy or not. Not sure your angle here, reverse psychology or whatnot but the bottom line is you have as much chance as being right as i do which isnt high as we arent pros. There are enough signs to show modt of NY state getting gealthy snow accums through the bext 10 days les or synoptic. 

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted

From the BUF AFD regarding tonight's wave precip: 

most areas across western New York can
anticipate just rain. An important exception will be along the south
shore of Lake Ontario where northeast winds may keep enough cold air
dammed up against the Niagara escarpment to keep the risk of freezing
rain in place.

Then for Saturdays wave: 

the tongue of warmer air aloft responsible for the aforementioned morning wintry mix in some areas
will slide off to our southeast...which will allow the precipitation
to transition to more of a plain rain/snow mix that will be largely
dependent upon boundary layer temps...with mainly rain predominating
across the lower elevations and a rain/snow mix or plain snow more
common across the higher terrain.

So the south shore MAY be frozen through the event if we can keep that NE wind!

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
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58 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Is this the old scott? First off kbuf picked up 2.1" to this point,  thats A. B) we are expecting 3 to 4 inches tomorrow and 2 to 5 area wide sunday night so your totals are gone already. C) even wivb was talking about next weeks storm fantasy or not. Not sure your angle here, reverse psychology or whatnot but the bottom line is you have as much chance as being right as i do which isnt high as we arent pros. There are enough signs to show modt of NY state getting gealthy snow accums through the bext 10 days les or synoptic. 

You're going to be very disappointed if your expecting 3-4" tomorrow. NWS calling for an inch at best, going to be mostly rain. Honestly, I hope you are right and I'm not trying to use reverse psychology at all, I want nothing more then that weenie GFS map of 66" for BUF in the next 2 weeks to come to fruition I'm just not seeing it so I guess for now we'll just have to agree to disagree. Also, congrats on picking up 2-3" up there, we only saw 1.2" here. 

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

You're going to be very disappointed if your expecting 3-4" tomorrow. NWS calling for an inch at best, going to be mostly rain. Honestly, I hope you are right and I'm not trying to use reverse psychology at all, I want nothing more then that weenie GFS map of 66" for BUF in the next 2 weeks to come to fruition I'm just not seeing it so I guess for now we'll just have to agree to disagree. Also, congrats on picking up 2-3" up there, we only saw 1.2" here. 

I just don't see how a slp, that passes to our S&E, warms us up to see rain especially out in WNY where the changeover should be much quicker. So I'll be optimistic for you, lol as I just don't see it, and if it does, it should be a quick or fairly quick changeover to snow tomorrow as the cold air just wants to press and press, IMO so we'll see!  I don't think anyone believes what the Euro or the GFS is spitting out snowfall wise for the next 10 days verbatim.

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Mix line So. Onondaga County.

5a3d22ef149f8_RAD_KTYX_N0R_ANI(5).gif.158be6c17b7851536d82b073c981eb4b.gif

If you watch the snow/mix line on radar loop, it hasn't made much progress north over the last couple of hours. All the 12Z Nam models keep the 0C 850 line south of the Onondaga/Oswego border until after 0Z tonight. It is snowing moderately here right now. 

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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Just now, CNY_WX said:

If you watch the snow/mix line on radar loop, it hasn't made much progress north over the last couple of hours. All the 12Z Nam models keep the 0C 850 line south of the Onondaga/Oswego border until after 0Z tonight. It is snowing moderately here right now. 

I'll be completely amazed if that line stays where its at until 00Z tonight because if that does in fact occur, what is now falling should start to intensify as the baroclinic zone shrinks between the relatively warm air to our south and the extremely frigid air to our North!

The current radar is definitely not indicative of what is actually falling as it is currently SN/BR/BLSN with a temp of 19F!

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
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11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I just don't see how a slp, that passes to our S&E, warms us up to see rain especially out in WNY where the changeover should be much quicker. So I'll be optimistic for you, lol as I just don't see it, and if it does, it should be a quick or fairly quick changeover to snow tomorrow as the cold air just wants to press and press, IMO so we'll see!  I don't think anyone believes what the Euro or the GFS is spitting out snowfall wise for the next 10 days verbatim.

The funny thing is the local mets are calling for a few inches tomorrow but with the temps marginal much may not stick. I dont believe the gfs or euro outputs either but hopefully we all cash in and get to enjoy all the white gold!

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

The funny thing is the local mets are calling for a few inches tomorrow but with the temps marginal much may not stick. I dont believe the gfs or euro outputs either but hopefully we all cash in and get to enjoy all the white gold!

Just watch the winds at your location...if they switch to SE, you're toast.

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