Syrmax Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 7:00 PM, OSUmetstud said: That's really not how blocking works in this case I think. The mean upper level trough is too far east. In fact I think blocking isn't particularly helpful to get noreasters to affect upstate NY. Some of bufs best Synoptic months are with la Nina and a pos nao but with confluence in the right spot. Expand Incoming trough axis also positive tilt approaching east coast, doesnt go - tilt in time to keep slp in tight enough, other than for Maine, Maritmes and maybe Eastern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 7:16 PM, Syrmax said: Incoming trough axis also positive tilt approaching east coast, doesnt go - tilt in time to keep slp in tight enough, other than for Maine, Maritmes and maybe Eastern NE. Expand Yeah that's right. Makes the scraper thing more likely. Normally this would be a compete ots thing but there is so much energy that ocean low gets pulled back towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 7:00 PM, OSUmetstud said: That's really not how blocking works in this case I think. The mean upper level trough is too far east. In fact I think blocking isn't particularly helpful to get noreasters to affect upstate NY. Some of bufs best Synoptic months are with la Nina and a pos nao but with confluence in the right spot. Expand It depends on location of blocking. An east based negative nao would result in an inland runner the majority of the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 7:23 PM, BuffaloWeather said: It depends on location of blocking. An east based negative nao would result in an inland runner the majority of the time? Expand Blocking isn't going to cause a trough way east with a developing low in the Bahamas to hit upstate NY. Sure an east block is probably better for upstate NY since it's less effective at blocking storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 7:25 PM, OSUmetstud said: Blocking isn't going to cause a trough way east with a developing low in the Bahamas to hit upstate NY. Sure an east block is probably better for upstate NY since it's less effective at blocking storms. Expand Makes sense. Obviously any storm needs a well placed through axis. You need a lot to go right to get good syntoptic in upstate ny, especially western areas. Nina’s are usually best because of southeast ridge which usually leads to more cutters then normal and a well positioned axis to ride along. But we don’t have that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 WSW issued. 5-9 for Wayne east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ha! Perfect. What is there, some kinda cutter highway up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 In gotta saym, I've been watching the placement of the bands from the EURO and it nailed yesterdays event, wrt wind direction primarilly but not totals, obviously but if your still up there SWVA, tonight looks real good for you. I think you left already though unless you can stay a couple more days! Euro till 60 hrs, not bad but I don;t believe it for my area, but it splits the area anyway, One to my North and one to my South, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 8:23 PM, CNY-WXFREAK said: In gotta saym, I've been watching the placement of the bands from the EURO and it nailed yesterdays event, wrt wind direction primarilly but not totals, obviously but if your still up there SWVA, tonight looks real good for you. I think you left already though unless you can stay a couple more days! Euro till 60 hrs, not bad but I don;t believe it for my area, but it splits the area anyway, One to my North and one to my South, lol! Expand Well, Im still here and would love to see it. I know we're spoiled, but nothing but cold, dry and sunny here since last Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 8:00 PM, rochesterdave said: Ha! Perfect. What is there, some kinda cutter highway up there?You meant Clipper right?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Been snowing here quite a bit the past few hours. Couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 8:23 PM, CNY-WXFREAK said: In gotta saym, I've been watching the placement of the bands from the EURO and it nailed yesterdays event, wrt wind direction primarilly but not totals, obviously but if your still up there SWVA, tonight looks real good for you. I think you left already though unless you can stay a couple more days! Euro till 60 hrs, not bad but I don;t believe it for my area, but it splits the area anyway, One to my North and one to my South, lol! Expand Still here.. enjoying my negative teens for morning lows. Lol! I leave Tuesday morning. Would love to get something besides dry and cold. By the way, you had more snow last night than I’ve had the whole time I’ve been here. Ha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Looks pretty dull going into next week. Hope we can kick up some LES. East Coast thing is trending East on 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The KBUF office the warning and advisory kings, lol, as they are they only ones who issued any type of watch for an event tomorrow into Tuesday! I don't think this one comes weven close to verifying here but perhaps Fulton to Oswego cash's in but definitely NOT So.Oswego county as bands somehow, and I don't know why, just seem to go around us all the time as it is happening right now and has been all day. SNowing in Fulton and it dries up as it tries to follow rt 481 North and stops at Phoenix, right before my exit. I just don't understand as winds are plenty strong enough to bring the bands further inland than last night as it was nearly calm outside. Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 214 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute on Monday. Expect wind chills to range from 5 below zero to 20 below zero. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, now to 10 AM Monday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Significant reductions in visibility and difficult travel are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Think roc get a fare up of lake snow overnight2 to 4 inches. Tomorrow eve into teusday maybe 3 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I see officially roc got 7.2 from last eve into this am. Not a bad moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/31/2017 at 11:23 PM, tim123 said: I see officially roc got 7.2 from last eve into this am. Not a bad moderate event. Expand Surprised they came in an inch and half higher than me, but I think measuring every 6 hours with this type of snow really helps pump up the apparent totals. I did not do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Got into downtown Syracuse from Binghamton, fine cyrstalline snow falling i-81 messy south of Syracuse...won't add up to an inch at this rate but...Gotta say, NYE, bad timing. Roads a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Same here, as I just got back from Lafayette and it was snowing, but it was extremely light, and with such brutal temps it doesn't take much to cause issues on the roads, especially rt81 through the hills South of the city! Tough travel d and temps are quite cold and I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Time Square on the NYE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nice band in Wayne County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 There's a band in No. Onondaga County that literally originates just to the NW of Fulton but not quite to Oswego and just as it gets to me, it jumps my area completely, and then reignites to my East so CNY in Brewerton may be getting some snow but just to his West where I am the Moon iis out. Same thing happened last night after that front with that burst of snow I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It's cloudy here but no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 THE BILLS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Puke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Did they just copy and paste the last event lol 3k nam really hits up just north of here between Mexico-parish area, which is exactly where I’ll be trying to move by next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 1:06 AM, BuffaloWeather said: THE BILLS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!! Expand The best part was watching another Harbaugh humiliation. Go Buckeyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just need that band a little south, Gfs has wnw winds for about 6-9 hrs before turning NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Getting a bit of gb connection overnite. Should be just enough for 2 to 4 inches roc east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 3:25 AM, wolfie09 said: Just need that band a little south, Gfs has wnw winds for about 6-9 hrs before turning NW.. Expand Close to showing me some love before I leave. Still gives me 2-4” with ratios. Interested to see what RGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 3:28 AM, tim123 said: Getting a bit of gb connection overnite. Should be just enough for 2 to 4 inches roc east Expand I can't tell if its a GB connection, lift ahead of that next shortwave, low level moisture associated with that shortwave, a nocturnal maximum, or all of the above....but its been snowing for about 3 hours now with a fresh inch. Quite happy with this bonus snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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