BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Figured this would be a good time to start a new thread with the warmup expected this week and return to possible mid winter conditions during Xmas into New years week. During the next week we will experience a zonal flow and more pacific dominated pattern. It's not going to be a big thaw by any means. Temps look to be in the upper 30s/low 40s for 3-4 days this coming week with the potential for some light rain/mixed precip as well. There is a possible brief set-up for LES on Weds for areas SE of Lake Ontario. Friday night/Sat we look to experience a possible cutter that will usher in the next round of colder weather that looks to last at least 2 weeks following that. The EPO and WPO look to tank quite a bit with a positive NAO. The EPO/WPO look to overcome the medicore PNA set-up and user in a piece of the PV during Xmas week. This is brought out well from KBUFs long range discussion. They discuss big SW flow LES, very surprised by this as this pattern is still over a week away. Should be a fun couple weeks of tracking! Quote Looking further down the road...medium to long range guidance is looking very interesting for the period from Christmas to New Years. For a few model runs now...this longer range guidance has been hinting at a return to notably colder weather for the Great Lakes region. A closed low over Siberia is forecast to break down in the coming days with a chunk of its energy being ejected out across the Kamchatka Peninsula and northern reaches of the Pacific ocean. Eventually...this very robust bundle of mid level energy is forecast to help carve out a full latitude trough over the heart of North America. While highly anomalous ridging off the West coast would extend from 20N all the way to the Pole...a large portion 0f the polar vortex would settle south to northern Ontario. This newly phased pattern would not only include a cross polar flow...but more importantly would allow H85 temps of <-30c within the vortex to make their way across the northern plains. While this long range forecast would place the coldest air of this outbreak over the plains states...the air would eventually make its way to the Ohio Valley. Climatologically...this is exactly where it should be to support significant southwest flow lake effect for our region. This would also come at a time (between Christmas and New Years) when impactful southwest flow lake storms seem to be most common. In a nutshell...the week or so from Christmas to New Years should feature colder than normal weather with the hint for substantial lake snows. For what its worth...the Climate Prediction Center is also projecting below normal temps for the Great Lakes region for this same period. Stay tuned. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html The EPS and GEFS both show this well in the long range. The CPC has pretty high confidence in below normal temps for this week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 White Christmas may be in jeopardy with several days in the 40s and some rain on the 23 rd..The Gfs has surface temps in the mid-upper 30s during wed wnw flow, it’s not till winds turn NW that temps cool but also dry out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Coldest night so far, down to 3 at kfzy, forecast low was 8.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 A few of my favorite pics from last event. This is before the last few days of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 Also Thundersnow video I got. Turn up the volume I missed the best portion of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Typical signal for big lake effect snow for Buffalo. I keep seeing the euro map showing Roc in a region with 95% of a white christmas and thinking I wish i could bet against it. We are sitting on like 5" of snow pack with several days approaching 40F and no big snow in the forecast. I'd put our chances at closer to 40%. Yeah, its gonna be cold. Our best shot is getting some Erie love. Because this set up screams SW flow. Unless a 4 corners low lets loose, this is all Buffalo. I know i come across as conceited, but honestly, I feel like I'm on a streak. I was never bullish on the South shore event. And I was consistent with the South Town thing (football game) happening. I'll hope to be wrong on this one. But I'd bet Buf (at least city south) gets hit around xmas. Roc, not so much. Syr, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Typical signal for big lake effect snow for Buffalo. I keep seeing the euro map showing Roc in a region with 95% of a white christmas and thinking I wish i could bet against it. We are sitting on like 5" of snow pack with several days approaching 40F and no big snow in the forecast. I'd put our chances at closer to 40%. Yeah, its gonna be cold. Our best shot is getting some Erie love. Because this set up screams SW flow. Unless a 4 corners low lets loose, this is all Buffalo. I know i come across as conceited, but honestly, I feel like I'm on a streak. I was never bullish on the South shore event. And I was consistent with the South Town thing (football game) happening. I'll hope to be wrong on this one. But I'd bet Buf (at least city south) gets hit around xmas. Roc, not so much. Syr, not so much. The next cold outbreak is over a week away. Wind direction is all a guess at this point. If that long range comes to fruition Erie is going to start freezing up quickly while Ontario has 3 more months of LES possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Yeah, true. But the signal is a westward displaced vortex over Minnesota. It all points to SW winds. This is a pic of my local minimart. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 Pretty cool recap of the snowbowl last weekend. https://www.facebook.com/NFL/videos/10155887701991263/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: A few of my favorite pics from last event. This is before the last few days of snow. These make be absolutely jealous. Beautiful photos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Getting some decent “mood” flakes, some of the fluffiest stuff I’ve seen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Getting some decent “mood” flakes, some of the fluffiest stuff I’ve seen.. Tea kettle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Not so sure vort, I have heard of “tea kettle” but not sure of the science behind it lol Little tidbit on Tues/wed potential Still too early for forecast snowfall with this potential mid-week event but lake induced equilibrium levels per GFS BUFKIT rise over 10kft east of Lake Ontario which may bring a few hours of significant snow accum Wednesday morning. Temperatures will have returned to a little below average with highs mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Wednesday followed by a cold night with lows ranging from the near single digits above freezing to lower 20s Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 49 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not so sure vort, I have heard of “tea kettle” but not sure of the science behind it lol Little tidbit on Tues/wed potential Still too early for forecast snowfall with this potential mid-week event but lake induced equilibrium levels per GFS BUFKIT rise over 10kft east of Lake Ontario which may bring a few hours of significant snow accum Wednesday morning. Temperatures will have returned to a little below average with highs mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Wednesday followed by a cold night with lows ranging from the near single digits above freezing to lower 20s Wednesday night It's usually when a LE forms over the lake, but doesn't push on shore. The snow then 'boils over' to the near shore. Usually very dry (30-50:1) and puffy flakes. Seen it many time when at school in Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: The next cold outbreak is over a week away. Wind direction is all a guess at this point. If that long range comes to fruition Erie is going to start freezing up quickly while Ontario has 3 more months of LES possibilities. Hold up...the blizzard of 85 was seen over a week in advance, 2000 was also spotted more than a week in advance as well...there must be a clear cut sign for kbuf to post that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Speaking of tea kettle snow... It's happening right now where we are on the St. Lawrence. Fluffy flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 9 hours ago, Cobalt said: These make be absolutely jealous. Beautiful photos Thanks! I wish I could of gotten more out in the woods. Hopefully next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Hold up...the blizzard of 85 was seen over a week in advance, 2000 was also spotted more than a week in advance as well...there must be a clear cut sign for kbuf to post that. You can get a general idea, but even with last event it was forecasted for Buffalo and ended up being a southtowns/ski country event. Specific wind trajectories are tough to pinpoint beyond 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Lovely rain storm just before Christmas on the Gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Hopefully the king is correct, only has 1/4”-1/3” liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Sweet! It's gonna rain, then get cold and windy. Two neighborhoods in buf gonna have a white Xmas. The rest of us? Black ice Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 38 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Sweet! It's gonna rain, then get cold and windy. Two neighborhoods in buf gonna have a white Xmas. The rest of us? Black ice Christmas. I'm just someone who likes to read and try and learn from reading these threads but I've been in South Cheektowaga all my life and don't really remember a snow base sticking around and not seeing the sun for 5 months. I hope we keep some for Christmas but will trade a white Christmas for a nice 20+ inch lake effect event by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 FWIW which is not much at this juncture, neither the Gfs nor ggem have anything for Xmas..Actually the Gfs only drops 850s to -7c with various wind directions and the Canadian has a synoptic system on the 26th followed by wnw/nw event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Euro has an Xmas rainstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 So much for snowmobiling around here next week. Have not had a decent ride in Southern Oswego or Northern Cayuga County in at least two years, maybe longer. Hope the Euro is wrong! Insane arctic cold in midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 GEFS and EPS get cold after Christmas for foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Live by the models, die by them as well!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Global models will flip flop back and forth until a new pattern is established. Main player that contributed to the recent cold, IMO, is the EPO!. When the EPO is positive, we're pretty much going to experience above-normal temperatures and vice versa. EPO pops positive for a few days this week, then it's in the tank again, and this time off the chart negative! I just wouldn't buy into any one particular model solution for next week, just yet but that's just me.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Live by the models, die by them as well! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk At least models have been consistent with pretty cold air Christmas - New Years. That’s ingredient #1 for my trip to Redfield. Now here is hoping for the right wind direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 At least models have been consistent with pretty cold air Christmas - New Years. That’s ingredient #1 for my trip to Redfield. Now here is hoping for the right wind direction!I think you would be good either way, lol, up thataway! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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