WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: On average, at least in SNE, you get around 3 chances for a big snow dump per year. Some years are anomalously high and others low. I would consider this one chance 1 and squandering it OTS a kick in the cojones. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Miller B's seem to be much better for qpf than miller A's. Atleast in my experience and my latitude. You wanna catch them while they are bottoming out, not when they've bottomed out. Pressures of sub 950 sound cool but probably won't be prolific snow/rain producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 32 minutes ago, weathafella said: All that said, I remember some offshore monsters which brushed far eastern areas while everyone looked east at the darkened sky and wondered what might have been. I remember that in late march ...perhaps early April of 2014 ... monster storm was modeled from about 300 nm E of Hatteras to outside the BM ...to western NS, at some 955 mb too... It stuck that way in the charts from D5 in, too ...infuriating to the old climate adage of west is best when dealing with S-N runners up the g-string... yet, no bueno. mother fugger detonated ... ~ 300 nm E of Hatteras, bombed through 950s and passed outside the BM and end up filling as it passed over western NS... bringing light snow as far west as Framingham and maybe a period of near winterstorm criteria harshness to the arm of the cape to about Welfleet or so... Of course the models would be perfect in that scenario 5 days in advance ... what else were we thinkin - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 29 minutes ago, Hazey said: Miller B's seem to be much better for qpf than miller A's. Atleast in my experience and my latitude. You wanna catch them while they are bottoming out, not when they've bottomed out. Pressures of sub 950 sound cool but probably won't be prolific snow/rain producers. Not sure this qualifies as either ... though one could technically argue for Miller A and do okay in that debate, it's really more prone to being a capture scenario - I don't know if those Miller paradigms had that in mind. Capture being the N stream dictating where the southern stream goes by "tipping" the flow, and quite plausibly, though yet to be determined, even absorbing it ... We haven't actually seen that yet but was hinted in those huge runs two days ago. Could yet... Anyway, in the stricter sense, a Miller B is when you have a more west to east moving primary cyclone that runs into topographical limitations, as well as CAD viscosity, and then the upper levels abandon said primary in lieu of lower resistance along the coast and seaward and boom. Miller A's are just deep southern runners that turn up the west Atlantic ridge and pummel the coast that way. This is kind of neither in totality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Should be easy to prognosticate after a few Treehouses. I was thinking that looks more confusing than the 3D frontogensis equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Thanks Tip for the explanation. Makes sense. This will be fun to track and observe as it's kinda doing it's own thing. Regardless of what falls where, this is interesting in a meteorological sense. Ps. Glad to see you back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Stingy on qpf but the winds are gonna be crazy. Yea, it doesn't seem to be a big QPF machine at this juncture, but still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, it doesn't seem to be a big QPF machine at this juncture, but still time. UKMET has me at 2.25 inches all frozen. GFS is notoriously under, Euro near an inch and way offshore. Tick tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: UKMET has me at 2.25 inches all frozen. GFS is notoriously under, Euro near an inch and way offshore. Tick tick Yea, not worried...just keep the storm on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 So many awesome looking members in that GEFS spread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The melts will be epic should the football be pulled away at day 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The melts will be epic should the football be pulled away at day 2.5 Or there will be high fives all around. NO one should be locking in anything. Everyone has said everything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ukmet does that run 2 times a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: West west west last minute east. These southern streamers are like clockwork. It's not like it's been a persistent W trend yet either. Let's see how she looks Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It's not like it's been a persistent W trend yet either. Let's see how she looks Monday. It’s come hundreds of miles west in 36 hours . Literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The melts will be epic should the football be pulled away at day 2.5 You guys got this, the only thing you'll be worrying about is whether it's 12-18" or 2'+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 What's with all these posts about qpf??? 4.8* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Miller B's seem to be much better for qpf than miller A's. Atleast in my experience and my latitude. You wanna catch them while they are bottoming out, not when they've bottomed out. Pressures of sub 950 sound cool but probably won't be prolific snow/rain producers. Go away. Jk I love me some B. Actually give me a B with anomalous southern stream moisture. F it just give me feb 13, TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: What's with all these posts about qpf??? 4.8* Don't worry, you won't have much to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The melts will be epic should the football be pulled away at day 2.5 Lol if anyone locks it in before 80 hours or so then they deserve what they get. Snow88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The melts will be epic should the football be pulled away at day 2.5 We expect nothing and are happily surprised with anything more than 1-2" of arctic sand... that should be the mentality at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s come hundreds of miles west in 36 hours . Literally It's gone hundreds of miles east in the past 48-60 hours. I agree with Hippy...its maybe a real short term thing but aside from 2 model cycles that kicked this well east, there's no true trend developing looking at the 500mb level and even surface if you average out the past 48 hours. Heck 12z two days ago we were looking at the EURO running this thing over ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Go away. Jk I love me some B. Actually give me a B with anomalous southern stream moisture. F it just give me feb 13, TIA. Feb 2013 was the best..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's gone hundreds of miles east in the past 48-60 hours. ? Qpf queen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We expect nothing and are happily surprised with anything more than 1-2" of arctic sand... that should be the mentality at this lead time. I’ll be annoyed with that should it transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Qpf queen? 48-60 hours ago the EURO was jackpotting KART and running the low over New England. That's west of where it is now. I'm no expert but these were more west than it is now (just grabbed from earlier in the thread). From December 28 12z run (48 hours ago from today's 12z runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: 48-60 hours ago the EURO was jackpotting KART and running the low over New England. That's west of where it is now. Could very well end up there again before its all said and done too, That northern stream vortmax is going to have a lot to say where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 hours ago, powderfreak said: lol you didn't see one thing that would make you think warning snows back west of the river. You are just "wishing" at this point. It's like the battle cry for models that might be shifting west... "warning snows to west of the rivah!" This made me legit lol.... so true. When a system slides underneath it’s... warning snow to the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 2:06 PM, Ginx snewx said: Lock this up Man this has really trended east in the past 2 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Man this has really trended east in the past 2 days . Cherry cherry picking time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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