Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Can I pull a Scooter and say GFS looks better and west.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I don't think the happy hour GFS is going to disappoint, Looks west of the 12z run at hr 06z thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I don't think the happy hour GFS is going to disappoint, Looks west of the 12z run at hr 06z thurs. Yea going out on a limb but it’s going to be beastly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Low coming in a lot closer to the coast this run. Not as deep as 6z, but track-wise, it'll be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 What's with the duel low pressures on all these? Is that the model not being able to figure out the best upper air support vs. baroclinic zone? All these runs have one low way out there and then another much closer to the coast, amid a large area of generally lower pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: What's with the duel low pressures on all these? Is that the model not being able to figure out the best upper air support vs. baroclinic zone? All these runs have one low way out there and then another much closer to the coast, amid a large area of generally lower pressures. Upper levels vs. convection most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't think the happy hour GFS is going to disappoint, Looks west of the 12z run at hr 06z thurs. 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea going out on a limb but it’s going to be beastly We tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Holy fuk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 968 before it hit our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: What's with the duel low pressures on all these? Is that the model not being able to figure out the best upper air support vs. baroclinic zone? All these runs have one low way out there and then another much closer to the coast, amid a large area of generally lower pressures. I think the ULL forcing is so strong we get the initial storm riding up the coast but than we get the ULL that comes in and spawns another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy fuk 957mb low 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I'd love to get that to tuck in a few ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Pretty paltry qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Pit2 may get blown out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The meat of the storm still offshore, but barely. Plenty of room for this to get closer and increase the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We tick. Yup, Keep ticking, Good spot for this on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pretty paltry qpf. Lead southern s/w pushed the baroclinic zone offshore and it never recovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Pretty paltry qpf. Yes but look at that bad boy, we watch very closely, won’t take much and knowing our Poppas bias, holy moly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 It's like a warm core winter tropical storm. Warmth wrapped all away around the center. Wow. It just might be too wound up and blow its load over the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Those of you who want to be in the jack zone right now at d5 are crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yup, Keep ticking, Good spot for this on the GFS. 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Those of you who want to be in the jack zone right now at d5 are crazy. Exactly. I'm fine with the GFS being just too far east at 132 hours. Toss in some known biases and you could just call it a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup, Keep ticking, Good spot for this on the GFS. 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Those of you who want to be in the jack zone right now at d5 are crazy. I know i certainly don't want to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Stingy on qpf but the winds are gonna be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Exactly. I'm fine with the GFS being just too far east at 132 hours. Toss in some known biases and you could just call it a hit. Yeah, Lets wait until were inside 36 hrs before it starts plowing into BRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What's with the duel low pressures on all these? Is that the model not being able to figure out the best upper air support vs. baroclinic zone? All these runs have one low way out there and then another much closer to the coast, amid a large area of generally lower pressures. It's a battle between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Those of you who want to be in the jack zone right now at d5 are crazy. What are you saying the models aren't that good?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 West west west last minute east. These southern streamers are like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 All that said, I remember some offshore monsters which brushed far eastern areas while everyone looked east at the darkened sky and wondered what might have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 At worst, we still get few inches of snow along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: At worst, we still get few inches of snow along the coastline. On average, at least in SNE, you get around 3 chances for a big snow dump per year. Some years are anomalously high and others low. I would consider this one chance 1 and squandering it OTS a kick in the cojones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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