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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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1 hour ago, Albert A Clipper said:

Not sure i agree whole heartedly about not caring a ton about the weather, people pay a ton of money to rent that week,...if conditions flat out suck, they'll complain a lot more about everything else...food, service...amenities etc. I don't go near my house during either holiday period (christmas/prez week), but i have many friends in the valley who work in the industry and say weather plays an important factor in "mood" regardless of whether or not they ski or snowboard. 

Oh yeah I get what you're saying... yeah I mean it certainly isn't the same vibe as if a Winter Storm Warning was out and it's dumping snow while in Ski Country.  

Thats the end goal when you go on ski vacations...the whole romantic vision of a snowstorm or currier and Ives falling in a classic New England village with white steeple churches and the whole nine yards.  

People are definitely more quick to anger, much like on this board haha.

My thoughts of the ski industry from a business side is that the destination resorts and hotels have insulated themselves enough through getting money in advance that one rain storm on the 23rd won't make much difference.  The rest of December is more important, IMO.  If everyone knows it's been mild or rainy for the first three weeks of December, that's much worse.  

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20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I can't believe all the progress of the past few weeks for the ski mountains is destroyed right when by vacation starts :(

Got another week of sweet skiing to enjoy before the set-back... Euro looks pretty snowy for the mountains tomorrow through Wednesday.  Bet we tack on at least another 6" by Thursday morning.  

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Got another week of sweet skiing to enjoy before the set-back... Euro looks pretty snowy for the mountains tomorrow through Wednesday.  Bet we tack on at least another 6" by Thursday morning.  

Like I said right when my vacation starts (after this week), it's very disappointing after all those model runs with the trough locked into the east for weeks 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well cutter potential #1 seems inevitable. It's Christmas that is up for grabs. 

Too bad cutter #1 isn't cooperating a bit better. That has a classic sprawling Scooter high out ahead of it. 94-esque. We just see too much energy diving in behind the initial Rockies energy so the whole thing goes too tilted negative too early.

 

Good example of snow88's EPO actually hurting. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad cutter #1 isn't cooperating a bit better. That has a classic sprawling Scooter high out ahead of it. 94-esque. We just see too much energy diving in behind the initial Rockies energy so the whole thing goes too tilted negative too early.

 

Good example of snow88's EPO actually hurting. 

Boy no kidding. If you just showed me that surface depiction, I'd be happy as all heck. Classic HP. Only hope is to really stretch the energy out, but I think it just delays the inevitable.

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I can certainly empathize with the panic, but this is a the kind of pattern that is hard for models isn't it?  Seems to me there is still time for this to trend a little better for us, even if we still get a cutter.  Maybe the sprawling high is stronger ahead of the system, maybe the low is less wound up and we get warm advection over cold air with a high anchored to the north.  It is possible this won't be a disaster.

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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Like I said right when my vacation starts (after this week), it's very disappointing after all those model runs with the trough locked into the east for weeks 

When looking out 11-15 days..nothing is ever locked in....no matter how good it may look...don’t fall for that.   It’s been a good ten days around here, no denying that.  But the locked in comments were way to premature imo.  

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I can certainly empathize with the panic, but this is a the kind of pattern that is hard for models isn't it?  Seems to me there is still time for this to trend a little better for us, even if we still get a cutter.  Maybe the sprawling high is stronger ahead of the system, maybe the low is less wound up and we get warm advection over cold air with a high anchored to the north.  It is possible this won't be a disaster.

I agree.

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