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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

While the cutter seems more likely than not, what happens near 12/25-12/26 seems highly uncertain. Just looking at the differences from 6z to 12z..Oye Vey. That high amplitude pattern is havoc for models. 

Yeah that second wave on the 25/26th is all over the place too.

Today's 12z run would work up here but not down there.  Stays surprisingly warm after the cutter the further S/E you go it seems.  Front seems to stall.  That better not trend into a second cutter, lol...that's when it starts to get rough.

The GGEM goes with two cutters in a row now.  That would be lovely.  One right before Christmas and then another on the 25/26th.  Nice festive mood rains.

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that second wave on the 25/26th is all over the place too.

Today's 12z run would work up here but not down there.  Stays surprisingly warm after the cutter the further S/E you go it seems.  Front seems to stall.  That better not trend into a second cutter, lol...that's when it starts to get rough.

The GGEM goes with two cutters in a row now.  That would be lovely.  One right before Christmas and then another on the 25/26th.  Nice festive mood rains.

I assume you get booked up for Xmas every year at the mountain regardless. 

If not, you all can start offering the annul grinch discount for ice skiing. Maybe throw in some ski apres on the deck with burgers grilling and serving pina coladas. 

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I assume you get booked up for Xmas every year at the mountain regardless. 

If not, you all can start offering the annul grinch discount for ice skiing. Maybe throw in some ski apres on the deck with burgers grilling and serving pina coladas. 

Oh yeah all booked up at area hotels like a year in advance... most have already bought their lift tickets too.

But I will say there are a ton of people who don't care a ton about the weather...they've paid and are going.  They are also not at work so they are happy doing anything.  Like when Ginxy goes to Sunday Rivah it doesn't matter what the weather does, he's not at work and is on vacation, anything will do.  

It'll be busy regardless...it's more just annoying haha.

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3 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I know I won't be spending  $$$ to ski on crappy snow with 10,000 other folks. 

What if you were going on a week long vacation somewhere that was already paid in full?  I bet you ski at least a few days because you are there.  You aren't going to go stay at Bretton Woods or Sunday River for a week and not ski, IMO.

 

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3 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I know I won't be spending  $$$ to ski on crappy snow with 10,000 other folks. 

Yeah. I guess for a lot of people it's just a vacation as PF said and they don't care if it's 50F and then the refreezng into icy death ribbons. I def wouldn't pay the premium though. If I could guarantee I'd be in a winter wonderland with snow falling and seeing all the Christmas decorations then I'd pay the money but not if it's gonna get grinched. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least tomorrow seems wintry. Send me to heaven, before sending me back to hell.

The soundings aren't bad for tomorrow. Esp with just a little onshore flow and take advantage of the salt nuclei. Wouldn't shock me if we saw some steadier snow for a while. 

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