Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's real when you have these arctic airmasses being advected out over those warm waters. Notice for every 6hr frame it's miniscule QPF...it just adds up to quite a bit over a 10 day period. You can see the low cumulus cloud streets forming out over the water on the vis loops today.

Oh yeah that makes sense lol.  I just got QPF happy for the fish.

[codfishsnowman]

30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I've always wondered if that QPF actually falls or if the model is just over-doing it over the ocean.  Every single run almost all winter long with a cold air mass in place, the ocean has inches of QPF for the 10-day totals.  Are the fish really getting feet of snow every week?  lol.

I have been told by numerous commercial fishers of blinding snow in the winter time dragging on Georges Bank, often on a strong NW flow

[tamarack]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We have one and it's called Nantucket. How well do they do with snow again?

Matinicus might do better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm all in on the 1/7 threat.

Written off 1/4?

Hasty imo.

[Baroclinic Zone]

EPS looks pretty damn close to the Op at 12z Thurs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

EPS looks pretty damn close to the Op at 12z Thurs.

Sad. 12z yesterday was looking like this is the real deal. 12z today over Bermuda.

[WeatherFeen2000]

Plenty of time for this to trend west but the suppession is real and squeezing everything out in sight. It sucks I was going to call out Thursday.

[OSUmetstud]

EPS mean is from Sable Island to the Burin Peninsula of Newfoundland.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course the euro looks like it would cook up a Jan 96 type system at D10. 

People need to relax, this pattern will deliver at least one thump. 

[Damage In Tolland]

No reason to track this biatch anymore. I uninvested this morning 

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No reason to track this biatch anymore. I uninvested this morning 

My guess is you’ll reinvest at higher $$ in a few days.  Should have held on to it.

[Ginx snewx]

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We have one and it's called Nantucket. How well do they do with snow again?

They moved ACK into the Gulf Stream? Congrats Blair ackwaves

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

EPS mean is from Sable Island to the Burin Peninsula of Newfoundland.

Just a tick west and it game on, LOL.  Adios mutha

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My guess is you’ll reinvest at higher $$ in a few days.  Should have held on to it.

0.0% chance . Gone like a Stanton HR. Gone 

[Hazey]

EPS mean is from Sable Island to the Burin Peninsula of Newfoundland.

That's a decent track for young Leo...if it holds.

[Ginx snewx]

This has been the winter of posting through hr x, model x looks better should be a good hit. Then 5 minutes later, well that didn't happen as I thought it would.

[Typhoon Tip]

I suggest there's some chance that some form or another of this D7-ish thing will come back to a more meaningful impact.

How much so ... to state the obvious, is not entirely clear, and can't be...  Folks, we tend to have difficulty visualizing, particularly when we are being abusively misled by events that quite arguably ...don't have any particular reason for not happening, yet the models cannot seem to hold onto them.

That's probably a good thing?  Because from a purely and objective operational Meteorological perspective, would you rather they hold onto a system for five straight days before busting at the last minute?  Not me... At least, the the cosmic nurse has the compassion of getting you to turn the other way while she sticks in the needle and injects her realism.

One thing about that "...Don't have any particular reason for not happening..." facet.  I have a problem with the fast flow, and always have.  I've opined in the past, I know - won't conjure that diatribe all over again. But sufficed it is to say, until the flow "relaxes" (for lack of better word), I don't think any solution beyond D 3.5 can be trusted.  It seems the models, et al, are additionally error prone when there are a ton of those curvi-linear lines between the acmes of ridges and the nadirs of troughs. It's like the opposite end of the spectrum, where weak flows that are nebular causes its own headaches.

S/W kinematics end up absorbed in the flows, and also ..streams have trouble phasing ... when the maelstrom is trying to peel the Earth's crust right off the mantle like this. And the models seem to attempt to do so anyway, like yesterday's 12z's, and ultimately fail as they probably should.  Physically, it's hard to subsume the N-stream into an interloping S-stream in a cyclonic fashion when the translation speeds of the waves in the flow are caused to either exceed, or slow relative to the spatial interaction of both. 

That's probably not going to be understood straight away ...  The short version is, gradient saturation for the loss. And, it doesn't mean things won't happen.  It just means the progressive systems, to which flat waves are probabilistically better situated (...also other system times, like overrunning...etc) should result compared to deep cyclone structures.  And if the gradient is overcome and they do develop, they'll move along really fast.  Actually, that can be seen in these operational Euro runs...  This thing in question (D6-8) moves from Bermuda to NF in about 10 hours from the looks of the freebie charts.

Exaggeration of course... Anyway, the reason D6- ..10 really, caught my interest is because the previous EPO rolls over and the PNA pops robustly positive underneath. That behavior usually bumps the N/A downstream trough out of the W in lieu of the western ridge becoming better spatially teleconnected with eastern storm systems.  The only trouble here is that the models seem to (maybe) be over doing that repositioning eastern L/W ... a plausible correction back west is not entirely a bad fit there.  We'll see...   

 

[mreaves]

Storm track suppressed so far that we will be getting storms meant for northern Russia and Scandinavia. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suggest there's some chance that some form or another of this D7-ish thing will come back to a more meaningful impact.

How much so ... to state the obvious, is not entirely clear, and can't be...  Folks, we tend to have difficulty visualizing, particularly when we are being abusively misled by events that quite arguably ...don't have any particular reason for not happening, yet the models cannot seem to hold onto them.

That's probably a good thing?  Because from a purely and objective operational Meteorological perspective, would you rather they hold onto a system for five straight days before busting at the last minute?  Not me... At least, the the cosmic nurse has the compassion of getting you to turn the other way while she sticks in the needle and injects her realism.

One thing about that "...Don't have any particular reason for not happening..." facet.  I have a problem with the fast flow, and always have.  I've opined in the past, I know - won't conjure that diatribe all over again. But sufficed it is to say, until the flow "relaxes" (for lack of better word), I don't think any solution beyond D 3.5 can be trusted.  It seems the models, et al, are additionally error prone when there are a ton of those curvi-linear lines between the acmes of ridges and the nadirs of troughs. It's like the opposite end of the spectrum, where weak flows that are nebular causes its own headaches.

S/W kinematics end up absorbed in the flows, and also ..streams have trouble phasing ... when the maelstrom is trying to peel the Earth's crust right off the mantle like this. And the models seem to attempt to do so anyway, like yesterday's 12z's, and ultimately fail as they probably should.  Physically, it's hard to subsume the N-stream into an interloping S-stream in a cyclonic fashion when the translation speeds of the waves in the flow are caused to either exceed, or slow relative to the spatial interaction of both. 

That's probably not going to be understood straight away ...  The short version is, gradient saturation for the loss. And, it doesn't mean things won't happen.  It just means the progressive systems, to which flat waves are probabilistically better situated (...also other system times, like overrunning...etc) should result compared to deep cyclone structures.  And if the gradient is overcome and they do develop, they'll move along really fast.  Actually, that can be seen in these operational Euro runs...  This thing in question (D6-8) moves from Bermuda to NF in about 10 hours from the looks of the freebie charts.

Exaggeration of course... Anyway, the reason D6- ..10 really, caught my interest is because the previous EPO rolls over and the PNA pops robustly positive underneath. That behavior usually bumps the N/A downstream trough out of the W in lieu of the western ridge becoming better spatially teleconnected with eastern storm systems.  The only trouble here is that the models seem to (maybe) be over doing that repositioning eastern L/W ... a plausible correction back west is not entirely a bad fit there.  We'll see...   

 

Agreee Tip. It’s actually pretty amplified next week, but we see how fast flow can play havoc. In additoon, the source region for the s/w in question is a notorious headache for models to resolve. 

[SnowHole413]

It’s almost like they shouldn’t even make op runs go past 120 hours. People melt at events 7 days out for nothing, only to have it come back at day 4

[WxBlue]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How much so ... to state the obvious, is not entirely clear, and can't be...  Folks, we tend to have difficulty visualizing, particularly when we are being abusively misled by events that quite arguably ...don't have any particular reason for not happening, yet the models cannot seem to hold onto them.

That's probably a good thing?  Because from a purely and objective operational Meteorological perspective, would you rather they hold onto a system for five straight days before busting at the last minute?  Not me... At least, the the cosmic nurse has the compassion of getting you to turn the other way while she sticks in the needle and injects her realism.

 

I love how true this is. Honestly, that's why Christmas event was so great for me. It kept trending better and better in final moments when it wasn't much originally.

[40/70 Benchmark]

John, that concept is lost on several posters here.

Pretty important system may yet materialize.

Identify a period and let the model instability play itself out.

[Roger Smith]

Need to get Tom Brady running a model, that might improve the situation. 

[Modfan]

Meanwhile, has anyone been on the ponds fishing or riding? I am curious to the thickness of area ponds.I remember in the early 80's people driving cars on and across ponds and lakes in Southern ORH county

[kbc360]

21 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Meanwhile, has anyone been on the ponds fishing or riding? I am curious to the thickness of area ponds.I remember in the early 80's people driving cars on and across ponds and lakes in Southern ORH county

Town of Killingly today posted that the pond at Owen Bell is safe for activities

[dendrite]

GFS is a little closer. Baby steps.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

GFS is a little closer. Baby steps.

That was better, I'm waiting this out until 0z Monday to see where we are.

[Angus]

12 minutes ago, kbc360 said:

Town of Killingly today posted that the pond at Owen Bell is safe for activities

Walden has about 2" of ice according to some guys I asked with an auger. Figure I'll be skating there by Sunday. It's a hoot to skate on big ponds and lakes. Maybe 10 years ago, Winnipesaukee iced up with minimum snow and had great skating all along the shore and bays...I regret not taking the opportunity to go up and skate.

[weathafella]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is a little closer. Baby steps.

First step-a sweet hello?

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This run GFS oper. is kind of a nice paradigm for how gradient and related velocity saturation is stopping cyclogenesis, ...and/or in a mimimum, effecting it adversely.

Notice the southern impulse shears out ahead... and gobbles up the baroclinic instability/moisture and bottle rockets it toward the N-Atlantic, while the n-stream and the SPV fragment over southern and SE Canada struggle to catch... ultimately failing to rotate cyclonically down into the backside of the S-stream in a timely fashion.

Trouble for me is... I don't know if that "cant'" happen that way... 

Either way, the N-stream finally does rotate around like a day and half later and tries to ignite another low E between Bermuda and the Carolinas ... but the whole thing D6-8 is a mess of sheared discord out there because of this hyper drive in the atmosphere.

It's kind of a scientific curiosity in its own rite, really -