Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

This weather is like being repeatedly kicked in the crotch by some uptown yuppie wearing French loafers. 

 

Couple it with a snowstorm and it's like being groin shot by Shaquille Oneal wearing steel toed boots with spikes on the end. 

I hear there is going to be a triple threat steel cage match down in Florida, Are you one of the participants?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

This weather is like being repeatedly kicked in the crotch by some uptown yuppie wearing French loafers. 

 

Couple it with a snowstorm and it's like being groin shot by Shaquille Oneal wearing steel toed boots with spikes on the end. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes, he is poking the nest but he is also subconsciously prepping himself for cold and dry followed by cutter 1980s style....he knows regression is lurking in the bushes with a basket full of rope and a bottle of roofies. 

The threat is certainly real given that H5 look. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The threat is certainly real given that H5 look. 

Yep, that lead southern vorticity pushes the baroclinic zone well offshore in the more recent model runs.  Need to keep an eye on that to see what it does.

[Hoth]

Would be nice to get a little more help on the Atlantic side. Gimme just a hint of neg NAO (not counting on it), maybe a weak 50/50, bit more WAR, anything. Heck, even an efficient phase would pump heights a bit and argue for a more tucked solution...Also need Kevin as bearish as possible. That seems to be the best leading indicator of success out there.

[Hoth]

Trough orientation could stand to back a little west as well, I suppose. Volatile look all around though.

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Would be nice to get a little more help on the Atlantic side. Gimme just a hint of neg NAO (not counting on it), maybe a weak 50/50, bit more WAR, anything. Heck, even an efficient phase would pump heights a bit and argue for a more tucked solution. 

Or convection/latent heating down the road pumping up heights ahead of it. 

[OceanStWx]

Ensemble sensitivity is showing a signal growing around 48 hours from now. So the 12z runs New Year's Eve we should really start paying attention to the West Coast trends.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We Know

And yes threat is def real 

I know no one is perfect, but it's less frustrating for me when people demonstrate insight into their patterns of behavior and acknowledge their faults.

Cod,  you are correct that these wide turns usually do not work out, but boy are they high stakes. Never sleep on a hook-and-latter plausability in eastern New England.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Trough orientation could stand to back a little west as well, I suppose. Volatile look all around though.

Absolutely. I didn't catch that, but DT had a very good video on this.

[OceanStWx]

The fuzzy clustering supports what many have said in here: higher ridge out west, stronger northern and southern stream trof, and a higher western Atlantic ridge lead to a stronger and further north low pressure.

Especially the clusters with the stronger low, they feature the aforementioned. The stronger, but further south, lows do feature a stronger southern stream influence.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I hope. There isn't anything worse than cold and dry. At least we have pics of car thermometers.

I think most agree that if there's snow on the ground, keep the temp at 32F or below... but it doesn't have to be -10F and dry for two weeks.  

I'll always take my chances with a bit warmer...like in any extended model run that gets active, it's because the cold abated.  You can see we start getting precip again when the -27C air disappears lol.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I think most a7-127c that if there's snow on the gro.und, keep the temp at 32F or below... but it doesn't have to be -10F and dry for two weeks.  

I'll always take my chances with a bit warmer...like in any extended model run that gets active, it's because the cold abated.  You can see we start getting precip again when the -27C air disappears lol.

If i lived on a mtn In N.VT i would Take my chances with temps a bit warmer than -27c

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know no one is perfect, but it's less frustrating for me when people demonstrate insight into their patterns of behavior and acknowledge their faults.

Cod,  you are correct that these wide turns usually do not work out, but boy are they high stakes. Never sleep on a hook-and-latter plausability in eastern New England.

Yesterday you locked in you would get dry slotted though. So, please kindly aknowledge your faults. 

[weathafella]

I’m an anti cold and dry person. It tell you what-returning from FL last night wth snow otg-heck-taxiways at Logan still have some snow on them and here imby  I have decent snow-and deep deep cold.  Long live winter!!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m an anti cold and dry person. It tell you what-returning from FL last night wth snow otg-heck-taxiways at Logan still have some snow on them and here imby  I have decent snow-and deep deep cold.  Long live winter!!

We hope you brought good juju with you. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m an anti cold and dry person. It tell you what-returning from FL last night wth snow otg-heck-taxiways at Logan still have some snow on them and here imby  I have decent snow-and deep deep cold.  Long live winter!!

What a Weenie!!!

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What a Weenie!!!

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yesterday you locked in you would get dry slotted though. So, please kindly aknowledge your faults. 

I didn't lock anything in, so please acknolwege BS. I said that would happen on that run...which is what you do in a model thread. Analyze the runs 

I was looking at it on a cell, and said I didn't like the high position...then I later deferred to Steve on the bananna high when I got home on the laptop.

[dryslot]

26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Or convection/latent heating down the road pumping up heights ahead of it. 

Yes, More ridging out ahead of it would help.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The fuzzy clustering supports what many have said in here: higher ridge out west, stronger northern and southern stream trof, and a higher western Atlantic ridge lead to a stronger and further north low pressure.

Especially the clusters with the stronger low, they feature the aforementioned. The stronger, but further south, lows do feature a stronger southern stream influence.

 

47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Or convection/latent heating down the road pumping up heights ahead of it. 

Perhaps it will end up being largely irrelevent, but one would think convection would ultimately play a role in determining track should a s streamer develop near the Bahamas.

The March event last year was originally a whiff, and ended up a NYS blizzard. Would need the trough positioning a bit west, though..

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perhaps it will end up being largely irrelevent, but one would think convection would ultimately play a role in determining track should a s streamer develop near the Bahamas.

The March event last year was originally a whiff, and ended up a NYS blizzard. Would need the trough positioning a bit west, though..

It wasn't that long ago that the ensembles were non-existent or a clean whiff, so we still have a signal for a precip event and the pattern still supports it. 

I see no reason to pull the plug yet, just as there is no reason to start ringing alarm bells.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS looks pretty crappy actually for the 1/4 threat...most of them aren't very good. There's still some good spread so you obviously don't write off anything...esp at D6.

 

The whole trough axis is further east than it was 24 hours ago.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looks pretty crappy actually for the 1/4 threat...most of them aren't very good. There's still some good spread so you obviously don't write off anything...esp at D6.

 

The whole trough axis is further east than it was 24 hours ago.

0z EPS was brutal, kick in the nuts. 12z gfs is a goner now. we have 48hrs to do as much as we can to yank this back but it’s an uphill battle. 

[dryslot]

12z GGEM was a scraper for SE coast and DE Maine

[CoastalWx]

Hey no worries...we can always weenie out in the cold thread.

[dryslot]

12z GFS is a clean whiff, 0 southern stream interaction.

[Hoth]

Let's get snow to Bermuda.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey no worries...we can always weenie out in the cold thread.

Cold and dry, Oh joy.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey no worries...we can always weenie out in the cold thread.