Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[codfishsnowman]

I just hope this is not going the way of winter 03-04.....jan 04 was miserable

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nothing excites me more than cold and dry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Lot of melts in here.

This isn't that bad...especially for eastern New England

 

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lot of melts in here.

This isn't that bad...especially for eastern New England

 

Its a question of what I said a few posts ago.  Is this the models losing the storm a bit, and then they start to tic west again starting tomorrow?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Too many whiffs there, we have hard work to do this weekend.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lot of melts in here.

This isn't that bad...especially for eastern New England

 

Looks good for the Andrew Gale.

[JBinStoughton]

38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Eh... he gets it. Viable threats seem to be fizzling to nothing recently here. Saturday was a good storm a few days ago, now we’ll be lucky to cover the grass.

Deep cold and bare ground is the worst. I’m sure we’ll warm up just in time for a cutter though. No doubt in my mind about that

I think days of cold and dry and a “great pattern” interrupted by a cutter is worse. It’s an insult. A slap in the face.  We’ll see. 

[SnowHole413]

I’m waiting till Sunday to really start looking at next weeks system. We have all seen the EPS and GEFS change under 90 hours and there seems to be a good signal for a coastal. Let’s see if we can reel it back in before melting

[Damage In Tolland]

Man there were some good melts this morning in here from mets and weenies alike. Hopefully this comes back though not likely. We worried about a dry winter in our winter outlook

[NorEastermass128]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lot of melts in here.

This isn't that bad...especially for eastern New England

 

Everything is still on the table, of course.  

We can always roll in the life support machines tomorrow night and Sunday.  They're on standby right now.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks good for the Andrew Gale.

So, you piss and moan when potential is highlighted at day 7, but when a whiff is modeled at day 6, its congrats Andrew Gale.

Maybe take a break and play with Bryce?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So, you piss and moan when potential is highlighted at day 7, but when a whiff is modeled at day 6, its congrats Andrew Gale.

Maybe take a break and play with Bryce?

You honestly think I would write it off being a met?  

It better happen though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You honestly think I would write it off being a met?  

It better happen though. 

I'll be honest...I jump the gun a little during favored periods because I put so much time into the outlooks, and I love when it works out.

But threat is for real imo...we'll see.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be honest...I jump the gun a little during favored periods because I put so much time into the outlooks, and I love when it works out.

But threat is for real imo...we'll see.

I hope. There isn't anything worse than cold and dry. At least we have pics of car thermometers.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I hope. There isn't anything worse than cold and dry. At least we have pics of car thermometers.

Tracking cold is the equivalent to tracking dews in the summer, but at least you get to watch lake ice grow? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Tracking cold is the equivalent to tracking dews in the summer, but at least you get to watch lake ice grow? 

Is this similar to watching grass grow?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tracking cold is the equivalent to tracking dews in the summer, but at least you get to watch lake ice grow? 

Oh yeah, that's deep winter baby. 

 

At least the extended could be active. Just not sure what side of the boundary we will be on.

[moneypitmike]

36 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

I think days of cold and dry and a “great pattern” interrupted by a cutter is worse. It’s an insult. A slap in the face.  We’ll see. 

ponds of rain on frozen lawns....a wonderful sight. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Is this similar to watching grass grow?

Id prefer that over watching my car battery die. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I continue to favor a BN precip anomaly this winter . Doesn’t look overly active. Got a feeling this next one skips east

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Would BN temps with BN precip qualify as a ratter?

[wx2fish]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I hope. There isn't anything worse than cold and dry. At least we have pics of car thermometers.

I saw your post about grilling in your speedo at 7F. Your enjoying it. Don't deny it

Just angry you didn't break 0 last night 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I saw your post about grilling in your speedo at 7F. Your enjoying it. Don't deny it

It is in the moment.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I continue to favor a BN precip anomaly this winter . Doesn’t look overly active. Got a feeling this next one skips east

Nickels and dimes post in a new way?

[codfishsnowman]

Never trust a storm depicted offshore to move due north like the euro did yesterday at 12z, only in 1978 did that really work out

the one that clobbered atlantic canada in feb 92 was more typical for how those things go

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Yeah but you never know when he's actually melting or just poking the weenies.  I mean it is the weeklies late in the period.  Maybe he's trying to get Snow88 to talk about the EPO?

Yes, he is poking the nest but he is also subconsciously prepping himself for cold and dry followed by cutter 1980s style....he knows regression is lurking in the bushes with a basket full of rope and a bottle of roofies. 

[The Graupler]

This weather is like being repeatedly kicked in the crotch by some uptown yuppie wearing French loafers. 

 

Couple it with a snowstorm and it's like being groin shot by Shaquille Oneal wearing steel toed boots with spikes on the end. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be honest...I jump the gun a little during favored periods because I put so much time into the outlooks, and I love when it works out.

But threat is for real imo...we'll see.

We Know

And yes threat is def real 

[OceanStWx]

9 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

As BTV AFD said earlier:

"The lower confidence is not helped by fairly low run-to-
run consistency."

I wish we didn't see so much of this in AFDs.

I don't really give much thought to run to run consistency of the deterministic models in the extended. It is a given they will flop around like a fish, especially beyond days 5 and 6. What is the run to run consistency of the ensembles? I really don't think the NWS has put enough emphasis and training behind that. I think for a significant percentage of the workforce, the latest model suite is gospel. 

I guess my point is, I don't think we should have lower confidence because of low run to run consistency (it's always low). But we could have higher confidence because higher run to run consistency (not a common occurrence).

And you kids get off my lawn.

[dryslot]

Its going to come down to timing of both s/w in the northern and southern jet to get a phase, Can't have the southern stream weaken and outrun the northern one.