78Blizzard Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: See ya on the GGEM as well. As BTV AFD said earlier: "The lower confidence is not helped by fairly low run-to- run consistency." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Ukie looks amped at 144h...doesn't go any further...would need to see another frame for it actually reaching us, but there's no doubt it would based on 144h. 00z hasn't really told us much yet...other than don't go locking in solutions at D7...but we knew that already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 This may come back later In this fast flow with little to no Atlantic block i did not anticipate this showing up for a week straight. Nor do i believe this has a more than 50% shot of happening (large nor'easter w warning snows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie looks amped at 144h...doesn't go any further...would need to see another frame for it actually reaching us, but there's no doubt it would based on 144h. 00z hasn't really told us much yet...other than don't go locking in solutions at D7...but we knew that already. Threat is def. more a whiff than too amped. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/12/brutal-stretch-of-cold-to-culminate.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Good bye and good luck on the gfs. Looks like it places the initial focus on a lead SW that flies out east over the Bahamas, then tries to phase it all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 GEFS actually shifted west and match the EPS. Smoothed ensemble means hold more weight at extended leads, so don't take single deterministic runs too seriously at day 7. But we already know that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 It looks like the euro will probably deliver this run-should know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: It looks like the euro will probably deliver this run-should know shortly. I think it will be east, unsurprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it will be east, unsurprisingly. Looks like you’re right. The digging of this mauler initially looked tasty. Still a viable threat I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Incidentally the long range continues to show reload. Looks better each of the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks like you’re right. The digging of this mauler initially looked tasty. Still a viable threat I think. It was evident to me early on that the southern stream was weaker...congeals later. Whiff. EPS will probably be fine. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Weeklies anyone? Ok my jamesesque posting storm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was evident to me early on that the southern stream was weaker...congeals later. I thought the northern stream was going to get it done. Southern stream is not happening in the current regime I suspect. It looked like it was cooking up a Miller B from that energy rolling down the front range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought the northern stream was going to get it done. Southern stream is not happening in the current regime I suspect. It looked like it was cooking up a Miller B from that energy rolling down the front range. Agree...but you never know. It tries...really goes negative, but a bit too late this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lets focus more on the steam flowing up from the sewers. We steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Swing and a miss on the 6z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Overnight guidance was awful. EPS shifted way se. Have a few days to bring it back, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 At least we have our cold. With this stretch of meh, I anticipate we'll have a counterpoint of good stuff. Unfortunately, that may take place during the 10 days I'm basking in the CA sun. (Jan 7-17). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Overnight guidance was awful. EPS shifted way se. Have a few days to bring it back, I guess. Meh City. I think this cold culminates in something moderate to major before the moderation. Problem is...the moderation isn’t happening anytime soon. At least the ponds will have really thick ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I remember seeing the weeklies dry with BN precip right thru Jan a few weeks ago and was hoping they were wrong. Looks like they weren’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Leo is trying his weenie hardest to channel this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Weeklies got better with the -EPO but big + height anomalies on the east coast. Looks like a cutter risk. So enjoy the cold and dry followed by cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I expect the storm for next week to start to edge back west starting probably on tomorrow's runs. Granted it could go out to see but the models have signaled this storm for a couple of days, I think? It is not uncommon that they lose the signal for a day or two. Then it starts coming back and trends for 2-3 days before it settles on something similar to what it was showing initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Very, very depressing when Scoots Mcgoots begins to melt. Hope dwindles for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Very, very depressing when Scoots Mcgoots begins to melt. Hopeful dwindles for the rest of us. I'm not melting, but cannot stand cold and dry. Weeklies offer wet anomalies along the OV and EC..probably from storm track. But, it's definitely a cutter risk. I'm sure some will counter that with Leon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Very, very depressing when Scoots Mcgoots begins to melt. Hopeful dwindles for the rest of us. Eh... he gets it. Viable threats seem to be fizzling to nothing recently here. Saturday was a good storm a few days ago, now we’ll be lucky to cover the grass. Deep cold and bare ground is the worst. I’m sure we’ll warm up just in time for a cutter though. No doubt in my mind about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Very, very depressing when Scoots Mcgoots begins to melt. Hopeful dwindles for the rest of us. Yeah but you never know when he's actually melting or just poking the weenies. I mean it is the weeklies late in the period. Maybe he's trying to get Snow88 to talk about the EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Very, very depressing when Scoots Mcgoots begins to melt. Hope dwindles for the rest of us. hadn't he had an utterly fantastic melt down in 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yeah but you never know when he's actually melting or just poking the weenies. I mean it is the weeklies late in the period. Maybe he's trying to get Snow88 to talk about the EPO? That’s what they show. The farther north, the better with that look. Hopefully the pacific improves further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: hadn't he had an utterly fantastic melt down in 2015? He was very angry during the snow blitz and took it out on the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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