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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

QPF ATT is akin to making a tot snowfall map for a 16D model run // or one harwich call in nowcast. Nice to look at but guaranteed it's swiss cheese and not believable.
There is a "baseline" storm threat, supported by teleconnection. The ole butterfly fart in full effect...analyze future runs to the baseline. Rare is the model run that tweeks little to verification. As depicted for 12z it's a funky solution but EURO, GFS both have the DB tempest. 
Cold will hold it's grip on the area...one can only speculate the damage from sea-ice that will surely form between now and then.     

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Mid level lows dont look that bad to me on GFS 

7H low goes from S ORH county to Lowell then Rockport then e.s.e of Rockport. Moves pretty slow

 

At 7 days out not that bad. Little work to do.

Also there is a bit of banana look to the plains high pressure with 1032mb strung out eastward  (to our nw and north) into Quebec

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Mid level lows dont look that bad to me on GFS 

7H low goes from S ORH county to Lowell then Rockport then e.s.e of Rockport. Moves pretty slow

 

At 7 days out not that bad. Little work to do.

Also there is a bit of banana look to the plains high pressure with 1032mb strung out eastward  (to our nw and north) into Quebec

First thing I noticed was Zeus's banana high, good pickup, pickles

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I watched weenies cheer at the +SN while I endured 8 hours of light to occasionally moderate baking powder that amounted to 4". 

I wasn't living in SVT at the time, but was actually up here visiting during that event, 20-24" fell even in the valleys.  That's pretty incredible you got 4", your not "that" far from here.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I wasn't living in SVT at the time, but was actually up here visiting during that event, 20-24" fell even in the valleys.  That's pretty incredible you got 4", your not "that" far from here.

 When I get home I'll go look at my total from that storm but it was definitely not over 6"

 We had hours of dry slotting with the worst snow growth I've seen in my life.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted 
BTV AFD:

The forecast towards the end of next week becomes quite
uncertain as recent model runs are beginning to key in on the
potential for a coastal low Thursday. Latest runs of the
deterministic models and individual GEFS members are in decent
agreement for now on the development of a coastal low, however
spread (and uncertainty) is high on a track and strength of the
low. The lower confidence is not helped by fairly low run-to-
run consistency. As the digging trough becomes increasingly
negatively tilted over the East Coast Thursday, it does look
reasonable that a coastal low would spin up along a baroclinic
zone off the Southeast or Mid Atlantic Coast. The biggest
question remains the evolution of any low that does develop,
with pretty large implications to the East Coast population
centers towards the end of next week. While such a cold air mass
resides over New England, we`ll have to see if the region can
warm up enough enough to bring the coastal storm closer to the
coast or whether we stay locked in cold air and the storm rides
further out to sea. Will be watching the evolution of the system
closely over the next couple of days.
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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 

BTV AFD:

The forecast towards the end of next week becomes quite
uncertain as recent model runs are beginning to key in on the
potential for a coastal low Thursday. Latest runs of the
deterministic models and individual GEFS members are in decent
agreement for now on the development of a coastal low, however
spread (and uncertainty) is high on a track and strength of the
low. The lower confidence is not helped by fairly low run-to-
run consistency. As the digging trough becomes increasingly
negatively tilted over the East Coast Thursday, it does look
reasonable that a coastal low would spin up along a baroclinic
zone off the Southeast or Mid Atlantic Coast. The biggest
question remains the evolution of any low that does develop,
with pretty large implications to the East Coast population
centers towards the end of next week. While such a cold air mass
resides over New England, we`ll have to see if the region can
warm up enough enough to bring the coastal storm closer to the
coast or whether we stay locked in cold air and the storm rides
further out to sea. Will be watching the evolution of the system
closely over the next couple of days.

 Out to sea for BTV is an orgy to me.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Takes away the big storm and instead has a day of -30C 850mb temps over NNE.

To me the cold seems like it should win this battle but we'll see.  That is a frigid run...like holy sh*t.

That's not the point, it's 5H moves thousands of miles in 6 hours across the globe every run

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