JBinStoughton Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, I'm sitting here toggling the 850s and they're screaming N into SNE than halt. Crushed for just about everyone. If only we believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 HOLY SCHNIKIES! That's one hell of a solution with both models almost identical at such LR. Can I please just get some flurries oh pretty please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I love where the southern vort gets picked up from, no qpf worries with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That’s a beautiful pattern out west which allows for plenty of amplification. The Atlantic could be better , perhaps that transient block near NF could be just enough ? We’ll see ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I think western NE and New York are ground zero there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Verbatim the GFS and Euro are about as hellacious a WAA thump you'll find. Obviously there will be a pivot and deformation band somewhere, but the modeled WAA portion is something else. Someone gets a front end thump then a hellacious deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Oh no, another NYC bust incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro would actually probably cause a bunch of meltdowns in here. Shades of Boxing Day with dry slot working in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: That’s a beautiful pattern out west which allows for plenty of amplification. The Atlantic could be better , perhaps that transient block near NF could be just enough ? We’ll see ... Thats not a transient block in NF. In fact, it would be nice to see a low there to lock the high in, instead it escapes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 25 minutes ago, dryslot said: fyp I meant where it goes, not who gets crushed. I always want it to go slightly inland for selfish reasons. *ducks* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thats not a transient block in NF. In fact, it would be nice to see a low there to lock the high in, instead it escapes east. The cyclogenesis is beautiful, but that's about it. Not the evolution you want out this way for a really high snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think western NE and New York are ground zero there. Definitely on the Euro. Massive front end to dryslot across eastern areas that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I meant where it goes, not who gets crushed. I always want it to go slightly inland for selfish reasons. *ducks* The evolution is kind of odd in a sense though, I'm thinking we will end up losing this dual low look as we move along to closer in time to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Think of this cold. I wasn’t here in 1980 or 1989 but I do remember December 1962. We couldn’t get a big dog to blow up but I believe that’s the year of the NFL championship game in frigid yankee stadium. My friends and I were hanging around Times Square trying to score tickets and we couldn’t. These were the days when home games had a 75 mile radius TV blackout even for playoffs. We ended up at the old garden for a rangers leafs game. This “old lady” in her early 30s was bragging about all the pro athletes she knew. Jerry Casale was the center of the conversation. Look him up. Oh the Leafs won 4-1. Some press box folks at the Lombardi Field "Ice Bowl" in 1967 stated that the only game comparable for cold discomfort was that 12/30/62 game. Temps in the teens, wind gusting in the 50s (at least), and poor Y.A. Tittle,s passing game was kaput. Jerry Kramer attempted 5 FGs from inside 40 yards, making 3, and the Giants' only score came from blocking a punt. Next day was colder (afternoon high of 4° at my place) and even windier. It's NYC's strongest Dec wind on record, and uprooted 2' diameter oaks out of semi-frozen ground near our place. Only the 1950 Apps gale can compete with that day for the strongest winds I've experienced. The 1962 winds were backside of the Penobscot Punisher, the storm that ate Bangor - 30" to 45", winds to 60, temps (in BGR) cycling from subzero to near 32 and back again, drifts 16'+. LOL for 12z GFS day 8 storm. LP moves NNE from the Florida Straits to east of the Carolina coast, heads due N, then parks for 12 hours atop Isles of Shoals while pounding inland NH/Maine? A track I can't ever remember seeing. After Sandy's weird path, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Euro would actually probably cause a bunch of meltdowns in here. Shades of Boxing Day with dry slot working in. Lock this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The cyclogenesis is beautiful, but that's about it. Not the evolution you want out this way for a really high snow totals. Wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Euro would actually probably cause a bunch of meltdowns in here. Shades of Boxing Day with dry slot working in. that was way worse than jan 15 back here....just brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The evolution is kind of odd in a sense though, I'm thinking we will end up losing this dual low look as we move along to closer in time to the event. I think so. It could end up being a Jan 2005 or March 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Verbatim the GFS and Euro are about as hellacious a WAA thump you'll find. Obviously there will be a pivot and deformation band somewhere, but the modeled WAA portion is something else. Not going to lie, it reminds me of the WAA thump forecast for last year's March blizzard. The models definitely over-did that QPF...remember it was showing like widespread 0.6-1.2" QPF in like a 6-hour time moving through New England? It snowed big but I remember talk afterwards that models were way too high on that amount of moisture coming out with the thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The evolution is kind of odd in a sense though, I'm thinking we will end up losing this dual low look as we move along to closer in time to the event. Agreed. It's the same as Ray's depiction of the inverted trough. In this case the models don't really know which low center to hang it's hat on so it puts both on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wut Oh, here we go. Not getting into it with you. Its heavy snow...but keep expectations reasonable east with that track on that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lock this up meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not going to lie, it reminds me of the WAA thump forecast for last year's March blizzard. The models definitely over-did that QPF...remember it was showing like widespread 0.6-1.2" QPF in like a 6-hour time moving through New England? It snowed big but I remember talk afterwards that models were way too high on that amount of moisture coming out with the thump. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh, here we go. Not getting into it with you. Its heavy snow...but keep expectations reasonable east with that track on that solution. Qpf queens gonna QPF Yea here we go again is right. Lol unreal, take another detailed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think western NE and New York are ground zero there. I lean more east. I'm very skeptical when it's this cold of something trying to run the coastline. But I guess if the upper air pattern helps it.... I don't really see how a deep low like that just plows inland with the Arctic air entrenched. Nice to over-analyze a day 7-8 threat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Bottom line...big storm should develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Other than James, perhaps, there is not one of us that would look at that set up and not salivate over it. Skip over the QPF. That is about a good as it gets with a low coming out of the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 That’s such a bizarre solution. I find it hard to believe there would be so much QPF with dual lows. Someone gets porked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not going to lie, it reminds me of the WAA thump forecast for last year's March blizzard. The models definitely over-did that QPF...remember it was showing like widespread 0.6-1.2" QPF in like a 6-hour time moving through New England? It snowed big but I remember talk afterwards that models were way too high on that amount of moisture coming out with the thump. Right. In general, it's pretty hard to go more than 1" QPF in the WAA alone. That's why we tend to cap amounts around a foot from that portion of a storm alone. It's mostly duration related and not forcing. If you WAA only, you dry slot, and it likely won't snow for longer than 6-8 hours. It's hard to pump out more than a foot of snow from 6 hours of forcing. Deformation can do it on occasion because the forcing is more focused and ratios tend to be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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