Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

15-16 was an all time ratter in this region. Peru VT COOP had 45" at 1700ft. That blew away the previous record  by 20" . They have like 70-80 years of good data too.

There is no hard data recorded there, but I honestly think Bennington VT had under 10" during 15-16. I know its not a prime snow spot, but they are still at 800ft in SVT.

 

Agree, even my area had more snow than S VT that year.  Bennington is an absolute snow hole sometimes though.

Maybe tomorrow I will motivate and start a NE snow hole thread, there are a lot of candidates, Bennington being high on the list, as is N Adams. 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not so sure... are we due for 3 dead rats in a 10 year period? Seems like more than you would expect. I think we are due for more average years for sure though.

Dead ratters:

1988-89,1990-91,1991-92,1994-95,1997-98,2001-02,2006-07,2011-12.

 

8 in 29 years. 2+ every 10 years.

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Dead ratters:

1988-89,1990-91,1991-92,1994-95,1997-98,2001-02,2006-07,2011-12.

 

8 in 29 years. 2+ every 10 years.

Since 1882 that's been the exact pattern, climo is a b**ch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Agree, even my area had more snow than S VT that year.  Bennington is an absolute snow hole sometimes though.

Maybe tomorrow I will motivate and start a NE snow hole thread, there are a lot of candidates, Bennington being high on the list, as is N Adams. 

Groton, CT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Dead ratters:

1988-89,1990-91,1991-92,1994-95,1997-98,2001-02,2006-07,2011-12.

 

8 in 29 years. 2+ every 10 years.

2015-2016.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2015-2016.

Not in the severe ratter category.  I did omit  1999-00 which brings it to about 3 per decade.  

2015-16 was bad but the late snows and the severest cold in a half century or more brought it out of true ratter which to me for BOS is 25 inches or less.  I think 2015-16 had 36 at BOS.

[FRWEATHA]

56 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Dead ratters:

1988-89,1990-91,1991-92,1994-95,1997-98,2001-02,2006-07,2011-12.

 

8 in 29 years. 2+ every 10 years.

I remember 89-90 being something of  a ratter. Frigid Dec. with little snow followed by a complete meltdown ( including melting First Night ice sculptures). Best memory of that year was  the thanksgiving snowstorm .

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Not in the severe ratter category.  I did omit  1999-00 which brings it to about 3 per decade.  

2015-16 was bad but the late snows and the severest cold in a half century or more brought it out of true ratter which to me for BOS is 25 inches or less.  I think 2015-16 had 36 at BOS.

For most of New England it was worse than 2006-07.

You give me the option, I'll take the synoptic appeal of 2007 every time over that year.

[ice1972]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2015-2016.

2016-17.....the 2 week winter in February was amazing though....lol

[SnowGoose69]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

Dead ratters:

1988-89,1990-91,1991-92,1994-95,1997-98,2001-02,2006-07,2011-12.

 

8 in 29 years. 2+ every 10 years.

You guys must have done worse than us in 90-91.  I had close to 30 inches that winter down here 

[moneypitmike]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Groton, CT.

Hands down winner right there!

[Go Kart Mozart]

Last night's euro for next week looks a lot like February 1934 to me.  For those of us who might recall, that storm brought a couple of inches of slush from New London on east...it may have been mostly rain in Boston.  River west had a crippling 2' blizzard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yes, euro please. That’s what us out west need. 

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Last night's euro for next week looks a lot like February 1934 to me.  For those of us who might recall, that storm brought a couple of inches of slush from New London on east...it may have been mostly rain in Boston.  River west had a crippling 2' blizzard.

and one of the coldest months this century yes?

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Last night's euro for next week looks a lot like February 1934 to me.  For those of us who might recall, that storm brought a couple of inches of slush from New London on east...it may have been mostly rain in Boston.  River west had a crippling 2' blizzard.

 

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes, euro please. That’s what us out west need. 

Just where we want to be 180 hours out.

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the measurement stuff def makes it higher but even taking account for that we've had a lot more monster storms recently. The 6 hourly measurements were around in the 1980s too. 

You can reduce some of these storms by 20% and a site like ORH still has an obscene percentage of top 15 storms in the past two decades. 

But long term the 6 hourly def bolsters it compared to, say, the 1950s/1960s

Same with BTV.  For a place with records back to the 1880s, more than 50% of the top 20 storms are since 2000.

[powderfreak]

How hard would it be to get EPS member 10 to verify next week with widespread 18"+?  Ha.

[CoastalWx]

All models have a signal. Some hug, some are offshore...but we can afford something a little close thanks to the cold.

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All models have a signal. Some hug, some are offshore...but we can afford something a little close thanks to the cold.

Does the setup suggest something closer?  Often when it shows something closer this far out then we get a region-wide event but some in E and SENE flirt with mixing.  Maybe the cold allows at least a front-end dump for all before any mixing issues.  Besides, it gets cold again after so you would finally have a bit of woman-pack.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Does the setup suggest something closer?  Often when it shows something closer this far out then we get a region-wide event but some in E and SENE flirt with mixing.  Maybe the cold allows at least a front-end dump for all before any mixing issues.  Besides, it gets cold again after so you would finally have a bit of woman-pack.

I would probably toss the euro op with that bizzare dual low setup. However, sure...if that trough is so deep..you could get something close. Or it could be more offshore like the EPS. It's 7+ days out and it's possible nothing occurs too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

eps mean is pretty strong at d7, differs with track  from there. Southern stream lows tend to be modeled ‘better’ so if eps can maintain the look for another 2/3 days, chances go way up. lets go!

[Baroclinic Zone]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would probably toss the euro op with that bizzare dual low setup. However, sure...if that trough is so deep..you could get something close. Or it could be more offshore like the EPS. It's 7+ days out and it's possible nothing occurs too.

Scooter snow hole on the OP.   Can't be right since you jack.

[Chrisrotary12]

I come into this thread to start discussing the massive signal for 1/4-5 and I endured 3 pages of ratter discussion.  The signal in the modeling guidance for 1/4-5 reminds me of the signal for January 26-27, 2015.  Massive west coast ridge and east coast trough.  Just classic.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I would probably toss the euro op with that bizzare dual low setup. However, sure...if that trough is so deep..you could get something close. Or it could be more offshore like the EPS. It's 7+ days out and it's possible nothing occurs too.

The Euro op is almost like a Miller A with a Miller B developing along side.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I come into this thread to start discussing the massive signal for 1/4-5 and I endured 3 pages of ratter discussion.  The signal in the modeling guidance for 1/4-5 reminds me of the signal for January 26-27, 2015.  Massive west coast ridge and east coast trough.  Just classic.

We dont talk about that storm west of the river. But yea, strong signal at this lead time with huge ridge, though gefs isnt as sharp with the trough...usual caveats apply, but i’d lean towards the eps and factor in gefs at like 20%. 

[dryslot]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm starting to get excited about that 1/4 threat......I Have more confidence in that than I normally would at that range.

I'd consider 2" this weekend a steal.

this

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

There’s also no end to winter in sight on eps, just reloads the epo like weathafella does to his toilet. 

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s also no end to winter in sight on eps, just reloads the epo like weathafella does to his toilet. 

Yeah the moderation has gotten pretty darn weak.

[Damage In Tolland]

After day 14 there was def a moderation 

[OceanStWx]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Worst in over 20 years here... and who knows how far back it would go.

Thy knickers went snowless.