Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks very inverted trough like, kinda hate seeing that and relying on such a solution.

Just remember...9/10 times that inverted tough BS is a provisional solution..an attempt by the model to reconcile currently modeled ennui with the fact that something of substance may go down.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just remember...9/10 times that inverted tough BS is a provisional solution..an attempt by the model to reconcile currently modeled ennui with the fact that something of substance may go down.

Yeah a lot of times the medium range IVT is the model not sure of how to handle the best upper level forcing..typically it runs the low level baroclinic zone east but has intense upper air support to the west. A lot of times it turns into a real storm...the two areas end up meeting eventually. 

[JBinStoughton]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a lot of times the medium range IVT is the model not sure of how to handle the best upper level forcing..typically it runs the low level baroclinic zone east but has intense upper air support to the west. A lot of times it turns into a real storm...the two areas end up meeting eventually. 

Please!

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This kind of an air mass reminds me of those in the past before an epic blizzard, that dry bone chilling cold, I measured with my hand held weather instrument that measures, wind direction, speed, temperature and wind chill.  It recorded a temp of 16.9F this morning as the sun was rising, I took a quick walk.  Try to get the brain flowing for writing.  It reminds me of the air mass before the Jan 05 blizzard and the day before the Jan 2015 blizzard, although that storm didn't have quite the arctic air mass that 05 did.  Plus I looked at all of the 2015 blizzard threads this week from the discussion model threads to the actual observations thread for good karma.  So here is to another epic blizzard in Southern New England.

Just curious, is there anything that doesn't remind you of these storms? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a lot of times the medium range IVT is the model not sure of how to handle the best upper level forcing..typically it runs the low level baroclinic zone east but has intense upper air support to the west. A lot of times it turns into a real storm...the two areas end up meeting eventually. 

Often times its more important to determine what the model is trying to comminicate and why, as oppose to interpreting raw output and any sensible implications. 

This is one of those times.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

OK, I get that..makes sense. 

Id like to see a less proggy trough, nuetral tilt would be enough. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OK, I get that..makes sense. 

Id like to see a less proggy trough, nuetral tilt would be enough. 

For Miller B storms, the GFS notoriously is bad.  You’d think it wouldn’t be but it is.   Euro typically is ok with thes but if you remember some of the legendary storms even the euro didn’t have much until we wer d3.

Pleasantly surprised to see the Pacific fight back on the long range (11-15) ensembles.   This is going to be a fun winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OK, I get that..makes sense. 

Id like to see a less proggy trough, nuetral tilt would be enough. 

Wait until tomorrow night...we will have either seen the inv trough fade, or a storm will show up.

The inv trough is usually, not always, the model shrugging its shoulders and buying time.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wait until tomorrow night...we will have either seen the inv trough fade, or a storm will show up.

The inv trough is usually, not always, the model shrugging its shoulders and buying time.

The legit IVTs seem to sneak up on us in the short term. Agree with you guys 100% on the mid range faux ones.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The legit IVTs seem to sneak up on us in the short term. Agree with you guys 100% on the mid range faux ones.

Yes.

[jbenedet]

I just find it odd to have so much troughing over the CONUS. Record cold over 80% of the CONUS? If the Plains are making record low temps I’d expect to see the coast closer to slightly BN with more UL ridging along the East Coast...More of a -AO/+NAO/+PNA look...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For Miller B storms, the GFS notoriously is bad.  You’d think it wouldn’t be but it is.   Euro typically is ok with thes but if you remember some of the legendary storms even the euro didn’t have much until we wer d3.

Pleasantly surprised to see the Pacific fight back on the long range (11-15) ensembles.   This is going to be a fun winter.

I’ve been all in on a big winter since Oct, so I’m invested in being right to my viewers (wife, brother, and mother in law). I do like the “runaway whineburg” comment by ginxy cat, classic. 

And yea, the big miller Bs sneak up...need a “not gonna happen James” nye miracle though for something big. Small event with crappy phasing is more likely, too reliant on perfect timing. 

 

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wait until tomorrow night...we will have either seen the inv trough fade, or a storm will show up.

The inv trough is usually, not always, the model shrugging its shoulders and buying time.

I like your analogy.

9.9*

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For Miller B storms, the GFS notoriously is bad.  You’d think it wouldn’t be but it is.   Euro typically is ok with thes but if you remember some of the legendary storms even the euro didn’t have much until we wer d3.

Pleasantly surprised to see the Pacific fight back on the long range (11-15) ensembles.   This is going to be a fun winter.

yea even the weeklies are showing the -EPO come back and that air mass in Eastern Canada stays at -30 range, Crysophere for the win this year, Bring back Tippy

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This kind of an air mass reminds me of those in the past before an epic blizzard, that dry bone chilling cold, 

Yeah but I've also seen more instances where these cold snaps are broken by a storm cutting to Detroit.   I am in no way trying to be a Debbie downer, I've just been through it enough times to keep my expectations in check. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah but I've also seen more instances where these cold snaps are broken by a storm cutting to Detroit.   I am in no way trying to be a Debbie downer, I've just been through it enough times to keep my expectations in check. 

His weenie deserves no bun, just all bone served cold.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro looks to drop the hammer middle of next week.  Flow is amplified "bigly" with a low emerging out of FL and the PV dropping in.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro looks to drop the hammer middle of next week.  Flow is amplified "bigly" with a low emerging out of FL and the PV dropping in.

This...

[Baroclinic Zone]

[CoastalWx]

Euro is a doozy next week.

[JC-CT]

Too bad it's 168 hours away. Because it looks fantastic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro is a doozy next week.

The pattern breaker...at least ultimately. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Paging @USCAPEWEATHERAF!!!!!

[JC-CT]

lol

He thinks the models have this nailed, especially the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting's global high resolution model. But he wants to wait until the NAM is in range to be sure.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Paging @USCAPEWEATHERAF!!!!!

It reminds him of the look the models had before January 2005.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is a doozy next week.

Haven't even seen it but if you think that, chances are its not as good here as it was at 00z lol.

Time to go check.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

multi model support here. Lets go, ONE TIME, track it over the elbow though.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Haven't even seen it but if you think that, chances are its not as good here as it was at 00z lol.

Time to go check.

Nah, I was speaking as a whole. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

multi model support here. Lets go, ONE TIME, track it over the elbow. 

Yeah, the GFS/GGEM/EUro all have the storm of varying timing/intensity but it is a pretty strong signal.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah, I was speaking as a whole. 

Just seeing the panels now... not quite as robust as the 00z run but still nice to see it on there.  A little weaker and further east but splitting hairs at Day 8 lol. Very solid storm for the population centers.