Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Since the consensus is boring, I'm glad there is a ton of spread. Well I would not sell this one short just yet. Sure it can trend to boring but the Euro is a s/w fart away from a large snowstorm for a lot of us. Right now its showing 6-12"+ for the southern 1/2 of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12z GGEM is much closer to the 00z Euro this than it is to the 12z GFS. The GGEM/Euro concentrate on the lakes shortwave digging. The GFS flattens them out and then uses the one in the PAC NW to try and dig a Miller A storm a couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Well I would not sell this one short just yet. Sure it can trend to boring but the Euro is a s/w fart away from a large snowstorm for a lot of us. Right now its showing 6-12"+ for the southern 1/2 of SNE. That is my point...I'm not giving up, one of the reasons being the spread. I have also liked thus tine frame for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 12z GGEM is much closer to the 00z Euro this than it is to the 12z GFS. The GGEM/Euro concentrate on the lakes shortwave digging. The GFS flattens them out and then uses the one in the PAC NW to try and dig a Miller A storm a couple days later. I'm going with the former rather than the latter being correct. And that has nothing to do with sensible outcomes. GFS loves the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’m banging the Swiss. Nailed temps. While the stupid azz GFS had LWM at 32, it showed a pool of 20s sagging southeast. It was the only model bringing me off the ledge. No concerns about holes in the Swiss coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z GGEM is much closer to the 00z Euro this than it is to the 12z GFS. The GGEM/Euro concentrate on the lakes shortwave digging. The GFS flattens them out and then uses the one in the PAC NW to try and dig a Miller A storm a couple days later. Sell the GFS. Buy EURO/GEM. Doesn't have to mean we get crushed, but n stream makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sell the GFS. Buy EURO/GEM. Doesn't have to mean we get crushed, but n stream makes more sense. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm going with the former rather than the latter being correct. And that has nothing to do with sensible outcomes. GFS loves the southern stream. 12z Ukie is also closer to the Euro idea. The fact that the GFS is less skillful than the European duo and it's also kind of an outlier anyway would lead me to toss it too. The pattern is also pretty meridional with that folded over EPO block getting pushed into western Canada...that would tend to help amplify the lakes shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, klw said: No concerns about holes in the Swiss coverage. I see what you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z Ukie is also closer to the Euro idea. The fact that the GFS is less skillful than the European duo and it's also kind of an outlier anyway would lead me to toss it too. The pattern is also pretty meridional with that folded over EPO block getting pushed into western Canada...that would tend to help amplify the lakes shortwave. The initial ocean low that the gfs develops into a blizzard for me also plays a role in flatting the flow in its wake and now allowing anything to go for NYE. But yeah thats an outlier unfortunately lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Anecdotally it does seem like when it gets this cold up north for a sustained period of time like this, you guys to the southeast get a big powder bomb. Some serious baroclinic zone near the ocean/Arctic air interface. This is the cold where you get runs like 12z GGEM that has a nice Ginxy pow storm while the 10-day QPF in Maine is 0.02-0.05". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z GGEM is much closer to the 00z Euro this than it is to the 12z GFS. The GGEM/Euro concentrate on the lakes shortwave digging. The GFS flattens them out and then uses the one in the PAC NW to try and dig a Miller A storm a couple days later. All the difference is at 5 H, GFS at 06z had a meridional look to a Closed 5H feature , this run had 5h open with a strong southwest to east northeast look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z Ukie is also closer to the Euro idea. The fact that the GFS is less skillful than the European duo and it's also kind of an outlier anyway would lead me to toss it too. The pattern is also pretty meridional with that folded over EPO block getting pushed into western Canada...that would tend to help amplify the lakes shortwave. Ukie is a nuke. Goes from 1006mb at 96hr to 955mb 24hr later N of NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Anecdotally it does seem like when it gets this cold up north for a sustained period of time like this, you guys to the southeast get a big powder bomb. Yea, just sometimes its the NYC metro/Norther Mid Atlantic/Cape Scrape "southeast". Not saying that's the case here--+NAO and persistence argues against that case... Given the current guidance though, I'd say this is either a bomb for the eastern third of the forum or a complete wiff--nothing in between. If the N Stream hooks up with the southern stream its bombogenesis. If not this is way ots.... I'm also favoring the uk/euro/GEM and strongly discounting the GFS at this point for obvious reasons... The northern Stream has been quite active this year, already producing several robust shortwaves this season - no reason for it to stop now... I think the antecedent deep cold in place will help to place that baroclinic zone in a more favorable position (closer to the BM) relative to our previous two events...Long story short, I think the coast cashes in nicely on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: All the difference is at 5 H, GFS at 06z had a meridional look to a Closed 5H feature , this run had 5h open with a strong southwest to east northeast look. The 06z run of the GFS was still using a totally different shortwave (energy from the PAC NW teaming up with a second shortwave from Canada) though to get the storm...note how it is two days later than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 06z run of the GFS was still using a totally different shortwave (energy from the PAC NW teaming up with a second shortwave from Canada) though to get the storm...note how it is two days later than the Euro. Doesn't matter what SW it picks up at 12Z with that flat look and a 250 jet completely different from 6 z, tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12z GEFS definitely trended towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 38 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The initial ocean low that the gfs develops into a blizzard for me also plays a role in flatting the flow in its wake and now allowing anything to go for NYE. But yeah thats an outlier unfortunately lol. Yea I really think this is the cause for the discrepancy between the GFS and other guidance. Destructive wave interference. GFS wants to amplify a weak clipper near NS around hr 84, which disrupts the development (downstream UL height rises) of the intense shortwave coming in behind it. It seems to me the GFS is the only model that wants to amplify the lead shorwave into something meaningful...And if we eliminate that lead shortwave or see it fizzle rather than blow-up east of NS then the GFS probably looks A LOT like the euro/gem/Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z GEFS definitely trended towards the Euro. Yup starting to look like we get something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Good trends so far today. Hopefully we can start getting some real momentum... we aren’t in fantasy land anymore for this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Doesn't matter what SW it picks up at 12Z with that flat look and a 250 jet completely different from 6 z, tossed Yeah, it really was an awful look for a northeast snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Isn’t the Euro running? Nobody’s saying a word. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro is definitely going to be flatter with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Good trends so far today. Hopefully we can start getting some real momentum... we aren’t in fantasy land anymore for this threat 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is definitely going to be flatter with this. Should of stayed “meh”d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is definitely going to be flatter with this. It's a huge difference from the GFS for 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Should of stayed “meh”d. Sharpening up last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Should of stayed “meh”d. Tblizz on board will be the KOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Sharpening up last minute. May complete the hail mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 This is when an ounce of atl blocking would help, slow the fok down you progressive trough. Bicycle kick that chit back nw baby, ONE TiME! edit: noooope, nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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