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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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Just now, powderfreak said:

 

Come up here.  And this is for the ASOS at 700ft.  Forget the tips of the ski areas at 4000ft.

The highest temperature at MVL for the 7-day period starting Wednesday is +2F.  That's the warmest for an entire week.

Fak that.  

IMG_7896.thumb.PNG.a807e09dc34f99f9040acaa888bcd877.PNG

 

I'll pass

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I can understand Brett’s frustration.  But the 5 you have is probably normal?  It’s just SE MA has been lucky the past 10 years or so.

I try to keep it in perspective... I average a little more than 40 per year... so I’m sure we may be on average or slightly below.

My point is, after the pretty good look we’ve had for most of December and towards the new year... if we walk away with just that amount of snow.. it will be a disappointment.

If we go into the freezer now and watch all these events get stomped South... that’ll suck. Nobody likes bitter cold and bare ground 

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34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I try to keep it in perspective... I average a little more than 40 per year... so I’m sure we may be on average or slightly below.

My point is, after the pretty good look we’ve had for most of December and towards the new year... if we walk away with just that amount of snow.. it will be a disappointment.

If we go into the freezer now and watch all these events get stomped South... that’ll suck. Nobody likes bitter cold and bare ground 

I factored in bad luck when thinking totals. That happens.

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I have a really low bar for this winter. Even the worst snow year here is enough to make me happy. With that said, 16 days after first snow, I found myself few inches from breaking my PR for most snow in one winter. Also, while I don’t claim to be knowledgeable with the local climatology, I’m pretty sure 23” and counting with few days left is a d*** good December for my location. I’m satisfied. 

NNE kicked off the year with a good November. CNE had a great December. SNE with good January next?

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

Come up here.  And this is for the ASOS at 700ft.  Forget the tops of the ski areas at 4000ft.

The highest temperature at MVL for the 7-day period starting Wednesday is +2F.  That's the warmest for an entire week.

Fak that.  

IMG_7896.thumb.PNG.a807e09dc34f99f9040acaa888bcd877.PNG

 

 

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wow, this will be a shock for you than.  

I want to see some -15 to -20 lows here again.  

 

14 minutes ago, ajisai said:
2 hours ago, WxBlue said:
Coldest high: 12
Coldest low: 0
I know it’s NBD for y’all, but whew... that’s a cold stuff for me!

Same here, the coldest I've experienced was 4 as a low back on Valentines two years back.

Dang, PF. My dad grew up near Stowe and he’s full of winter stories about how cold and snowy his childhood was.

But yes, this will be a shocking cold for me. I never thought I’d get used to 20s/30s feeling warm, but it’s starting to feel that way.

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4 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I have a really low bar for this winter. Even the worst snow year here is enough to make me happy. With that said, 16 days after first snow, I found myself few inches from breaking my PR for most snow in one winter. Also, while I don’t claim to be knowledgeable with the local climatology, I’m pretty sure 23” and counting with few days left is a d*** good December for my location. I’m satisfied. 

NNE kicked off the year with a good November. CNE had a great December. SNE with good January next?

A good reminder that everything in life is relative.

Hope everyone had a great holiday :-)

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I know I'm exaggerating but I feel like when this type of cold comes in ,the majority of the time, storms either whiff south or we go from single digit highs to a cutter. 

once in awhile we get a clipper that will produce area wide but I agree with you...it really takes a special set of circumstances for a 1/96, 2/83, pd2 and just north of you for all 3 there wasn't much but the big snows made it to GC

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said that if we finished the month with less than 12", which is a normal December here, than I'd be dissapointed considering the look.

13.5" and the whitest Christmas ever.

I'm content.

First time I can recall you being content with anything other than a KU. 

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Merry Christmas everyone, santa really brought us a white Christmas this year. Classic snowstorm up in Waterville, great day for snowshoeing when the wind calms down. Cold week ahead but I think I will be heading to upstate NY in a couple days to enjoy the snow even more - either Tug Hill or Saranac. I hope everyone is able to go out away from the PC and enjoy the snow! It's nice checking the forum, but even better to get outside and enjoy it for ourselves.

its going to be a very cold week ahead

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

18z GEFS did no trend any worse which is a positive but they certainly don't shed any light on concrete storm potential.  Here are the 12z and 18z GEFS valid for 06z on Dec 30th.  You can see the 18z run has more spread than the 12z run.

 gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.thumb.png.9f67d157c1a28e0c82d654ec0542f3e7.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.thumb.png.0cde056030b1e5047c540320883c4464.png

18z looks better to me... relatively speaking. I’m feeling this one. 

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I don't buy the models, they are all leaning too heavily on the southern stream energy, I think it will come northward again as the H5 trough in the northern stream hangs back some to let the southern stream round the base of the trough and ahead of the northern stream energy.  Just watch the trend is our friend in the short range.  Plus even if we don't the direct storm potential Cape Cod will see Ocean Effect Snows all weekend, and with ratios around 20:1 that will add up quickly

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I don't buy the models, they are all leaning too heavily on the southern stream energy, I think it will come northward again as the H5 trough in the northern stream hangs back some to let the southern stream round the base of the trough and ahead of the northern stream energy.  Just watch the trend is our friend in the short range.  Plus even if we don't the direct storm potential Cape Cod will see Ocean Effect Snows all weekend, and with ratios around 20:1 that will add up quickly

I actually agree with you. I don't expect this to be a southern stream dominant season. Maybe we don't get a blizzard, but we should at least get some n stream love going.

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43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually agree with you. I don't expect this to be a southern stream dominant season. Maybe we don't get a blizzard, but we should at least get some n stream love going.

I agree, the La Nina season is notorious for little southern stream involvement, if anything I think this system can turn into a helluva snowstorm without the southern stream honestly.  Looking at the H5 setup there is somewhat of a pseudo block over Greenland with the PNA rising into the positive +1 domain, I think models are not handling the northern stream well enough right now, once that arctic energy becomes available over sampling network then we will be keying in on a substantial storm threat.  A digging northern stream shortwave is what we need right now

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