dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, tamarack said: Wasn't faux 20 years (less 3 weeks) ago. GFS back to a downpour Fri-Sat, after having backed off the 1.5"+ RA earlier. Hope they're out to lunch. Its too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: We just had an ice event.......lol Two of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This. This is what Anthony meant imo. So like you said one can argue that point...but if the sensible weather turns out to be more wintry, then I think the point goes to Anthony on that call. No it isn't. He was claiming the EPO would block the storm from cutting. All the EPO does is add cold to the mix, which csn create a fromt ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 He also said it would trend colder...and that the models would correct in the direction of a colder solution...he may be quite correct on that point. Anyway....Moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 May be getting close to firing off a separate thread for this upcoming threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is really a great turn of events. Fair chance interior never torches now with net gains for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He also said it would trend colder...and that the models would correct in the direction of a colder solution...he may be quite correct on that point. Anyway....Moving on. If I predicted that you would stop posting because you would get weenied, and then you stopped posting. But didn't get weenied, am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Wrong. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I'm heading up to Maine tomorrow. I have a feeling I might want to be coming back on Friday morning with GC getting better snows than the mid-coast. Meanwhile, we torch. 43.6* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 49 minutes ago, dryslot said: We just had an ice event.......lol yeah but that's a glaze.....to me an 'icing event' is a la 2008. Tamarack agrees because he just said the last event was 20 years ago. Once every 20 years is pretty faux to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 12:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The EPO is in the East PACIFIC...how in the hell does that block a storm from cutting??? All the EPO does is ensure that it is cold before and after any storm, but you are still subject to timing issues and amplitude of the SW with regard to track. Saying it won't cut soley becuase of the EPO is wrong, and just because ypu happen to get lucky does not mean the EPO stopped it from cutting. You are either wrong, or wrong and lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: May be getting close to firing off a separate thread for this upcoming threat. If a new thread is fired off then either the Rev or Anthony need to start it for good juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jeez, let Ant have his day in the sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wrong. Sorry. It is the orientation of the pole-ward propagating wave break through the EPO domain that largely modulates the downstream pattern. No, it isn't as easy as -EPO = correction, but on a more micro-scale level, it is the circulation structure of the developing geo-potential height rises that are important. I've been talking about these changes being likely elsewhere for awhile too, as a function of stratospheric down-welling, and improper handling of tropical convection progression. The wave break is now progged to propagate into the western NAO region, which it ostensibly was not several days ago. This was a model error. Further, the EPO break is expanding into the PNA domain, and the northeastward expansion of the RW creates a more positively tilted trough, and consequently, confluent flow extension into Quebec. The structural changes resultant w/ a more SW-NELY flow aloft allow the baroclinic zone to remain along the coast rather than orienting S-N into the coast. So, I agree and disagree. The more micro-scale idiosyncrasies of the EPO break and its concomitant effects are absolutely the reason for the recent model alterations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: If a new thread is fired off then either the Rev or Anthony need to start it for good juju Are you suggesting my juju is bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Too early. Still time to trend it meh again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Too early. Still time to trend it meh again. I'm sure we'll get some Grinch runs again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Not talking the Christmas day one, But friday's is inside 72 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm sure we'll get some Grinch runs again soon. Just give it 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Just give it 20 mins... fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 18z shifted back to what it was at 6z for this Friday, but still better than yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Really strung out for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 That's a good thump of snow on the 18z GFS for CNE/NNE on the front end for the friday s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Stays cold to the pike pretty far into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Eventually consolidates into a more solid cutter, but it moved 150 miles east with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Stays cold to the pike pretty far into the event. Classic cold tuck sig with the mesolow that develops out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: yeah but that's a glaze.....to me an 'icing event' is a la 2008. Tamarack agrees because he just said the last event was 20 years ago. Once every 20 years is pretty faux to me. Actually, I don't, unless "icing event" were to be limited to catastrophic storms like 1998. We lost power for most of a day due to icing in March 2011, the same storm that buried N.VT and the Maine mountains, and barely missed another serious ice storm pre-Christmas 2013, a "near Grinch" that was mostly IP here but caused significant ice damage in the central Maine I-95 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 18z GFS looking pretty flat with the Christmas Day system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Looks a little like an IVT on Christmas day in NNE while the rest of the Northeast remains dry on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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