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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I like how that first wave is trending colder and further south... don't care if we whiff that one.  Just keep putting everything as far south as possible, lol. 

#savechristmas

#MakeChristmasGreatAgain

 

With any luck, you can survive with just a brief torch up there and won't have to take out the pond skimming gear.

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

#MakeChristmasGreatAgain

 

With any luck, you can survive with just a brief torch up there and won't have to take out the pond skimming gear.

 

Ha yeah its going to rain, but big difference between 12 hours of 50F with rain and like 9 hours of 41F and rain.

This run is about 3C colder at H85 hour by hour it looks.  Thats a start.

 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny how at the GTG last night, we kept pulling up those maps and saying "If I just looked at that with no other information, I would expect a big winter wx event....that Scooter high is vintage"....we kept saying it. Maybe our gut will end up correct.

Yeah no sh*t...lol.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

That's a decent change despite sensible weather still being rain.

Low at 00z run was north of Toronto and 12z has it near or south of PIT at the same time.

Tracks from like PIT to SYR...and this is still at 108 hours, so who knows...still time to shift...maybe we can complete the hail mary to turn this into 12/16/07, lol.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's prob still ZR down to around ORH with that pressure pattern...despite the Euro trying to warm it into the 40s by that point. Pretty baggy look...much different than other runs.

Color me skeptical on LCI going from 19F to 49F in 18 hours with that set-up.

It certainly looks to warm up that CAD region way too fast and too much around 18z Sat and 6z Sun.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Color me skeptical on LCI going from 19F to 49F in 18 hours with that set-up.

Yeah not happening. I mean, there may be a brief spike well into the 40s if the primary actually slices through NY State up through like BTV or something....but it's going to be brief in that area. For 90-95% of the event they'll prob be locked in the teens or something ridiculous...it's an arctic high, not stale polar.

 

But we can easily adjust temps once we know how the pressure pattern looks...it will be like last Tuesday...you take model guidance and then adjust for the known biases of CAD.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah not happening. I mean, there may be a brief spike well into the 40s if the primary actually slices through NY State up through like BTV or something....but it's going to be brief in that area. For 90-95% of the event they'll prob be locked in the teens or something ridiculous...it's an arctic high, not stale polar.

 

But we can easily adjust temps once we know how the pressure pattern looks...it will be like last Tuesday...you take model guidance and then adjust for the known biases of CAD.

Why wouldn’t you adjust now. Even down to NYC you can look and see this has to be adjusted way way down 

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