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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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3 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

A lot more tainting happening between 95 and 90, but as someone noted, our Quebec highs kept overperforming this year so we'll have to see. Could be a solid event north of Pike with the tainting to minimum before the cutter bring all of us rain.

cff.png

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why wouldn’t 95 north watch it?

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I love when folks say it’s behind because it comes out later in the day.

Yeah I feel like sometimes when all the models shift together, the Euro will get called out for being behind because it comes out last. Lol.

 

But in all seriousness, Euro has already had a few medium range clunkers...kind of got schooled by the GFS last Tuesday in the 12/12 event. Did poorly with the clipper too last week...though it didn't really affect most of us...but south coast peeps into the Mid-Atlantic saw that bust.

 

But when push comes to shove, I def still want that model on my side versus the GFS.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I feel like sometimes when all the models shift together, the Euro will get called out for being behind because it comes out last. Lol.

 

But in all seriousness, Euro has already had a few medium range clunkers...kind of got schooled by the GFS last Tuesday in the 12/12 event. Did poorly with the clipper too last week...though it didn't really affect most of us...but south coast peeps into the Mid-Atlantic saw that bust.

 

But when push comes to shove, I def still want that model on my side versus the GFS.

Yeah, GFS was first to sniff that one out, But the Euro makes smaller adjustments over a longer period so it may get by some as its catching up or its behind the other models.

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Ukie is def flat too for Friday. Also tracks the primary a bit further east like through BUF...so dendrite can probably prance through plenty of snowpack after the storm passes.

 

The biggest change though is Xmas...it looks a lot further east...it was previously tracking the storm west of the Apps.

 

 

 

 

Ukie1.gif

Ukie2.gif

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is def flat too for Friday. Also tracks the primary a bit further east like through BUF...so dendrite can probably prance through plenty of snowpack after the storm passes.

 

The biggest change though is Xmas...it looks a lot further east...it was previously tracking the storm west of the Apps.

 

 

 

 

Ukie1.gif

Ukie2.gif

Par the course.. Euro will follow. Christmas is saved

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at that Scooter high. 

Funny how at the GTG last night, we kept pulling up those maps and saying "If I just looked at that with no other information, I would expect a big winter wx event....that Scooter high is vintage"....we kept saying it. Maybe our gut will end up correct.

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