WxBlue Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: No, I don't either down this way but up north a different story, But it could minimize the damage to maybe a break even if the back end snow/mix shows up. On the bright side, at least we have a promising potential from that Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxBlue said: On the bright side, at least we have a promising potential from that Christmas storm. Could wipe that smirk off the Grinch's face.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I'm starting to feel net gain up here from the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Xmas threat is still voodoo in my eyes....if significant snowfall across the majority of sne appears to be a viable option on Thursday, then my interest will be piqued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The non-GFS guidance is still pretty hideous for the Xmas storm....the EPS did come back a little, so maybe if that can start trending, I'll be more optimistic, but I def need to see some more nudges from other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm starting to feel net gain up here from the cutter. We need to actually get some QPF on the front end...it's been pretty paltry looking. But hopefully if it keeps trending flatter, we'll see the frontogenesis from the Quebec high start to squeeze out some QPF. 06z GFS looked pretty good there....but then again, I feel kind of dirty to keep referencing the GFS as the best solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We need to actually get some QPF on the front end...it's been pretty paltry looking. But hopefully if it keeps trending flatter, we'll see the frontogenesis from the Quebec high start to squeeze out some QPF. 06z GFS looked pretty good there....but then again, I feel kind of dirty to keep referencing the GFS as the best solutions. Even the Euro op was 2-3" here and I'm not buying how rapidly it plows the sfc WF through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 That slp track on the euro from the Delmarva thru Central MA into Mid Coast Maine on Christmas certainly wont cut it for most here unless your back west into western VT and NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: That slp track on the euro from the Delmarva thru Central MA into Mid Coast Maine is certainly wont cut it for most here unless your back west into VT and NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 As we see time and time again, The cold is under modeled on the front end and should continue to see some improvements going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: As we see time and time again, The cold is under modeled on the front end and should continue to see some improvements going forward. As we see time and time again, said improvements are likely to be trivial with regard to the vast majority of the forum populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The non-GFS guidance is still pretty hideous for the Xmas storm....the EPS did come back a little, so maybe if that can start trending, I'll be more optimistic, but I def need to see some more nudges from other guidance. It’s likely more of an icing threat ending as snow. That low level cold should plow out ahead and undercut .. but cooling aloft is in question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Saturday should wipe me clean. Maybe some ugly swiss cheese left over that becomes a rink. That's the worst. I would rather get bare ground Welcome to the 1980s! I like the trends for the Xmas system but you're in a better position than I am. I'm just glad it won't be in the 60s on Christmas Day again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: As we see time and time again, said improvements are likely to be trivial with regard to the vast majority of the forum populous. We seem to have just as many people posting from W ME, NH, and GC lately compared to you guys S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: We seem to have just as many people posting from W ME, NH, and GC lately compared to you guys S and E. See previous statement regarding the only beneficiaries of said pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: We seem to have just as many people posting from W ME, NH, and GC lately compared to you guys S and E. And thus we watch. and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 21 hours ago, Hoth said: Better, but still: Still applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z GFS getting real interesting for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Further south for the front end snow for sne on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blizz said: 12z GFS getting real interesting for Friday Def flatter again. Overrunning snows for most of New England this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z GGEM has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Primary going to cut thru the lakes this run on the 12z GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: 12z GGEM has it too. I might start jumping on the dendrite train soon....I'd like to see a bit better midlevels in terms of good snows, but the synoptics of the arctic high in Quebec definitely is a classic "take 'em down" type temperature forecast on the front end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Question is whether this will allow for Grinch to stay for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Hmmmmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Lol...snowy Friday after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Primary going to cut thru the lakes this run on the 12z GFS though. I don't think that is being avoided...it is just a question if we can CAD for most of the event before it finally rips northwest of us. I mean, stranger things have happened...maybe it tries to pull a 12/16/07 with better secondary development as we get closer, but that's a lot of energy trying to tear north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I might start jumping on the dendrite train soon....I'd like to see a bit better midlevels in terms of good snows, but the synoptics of the arctic high in Quebec definitely is a classic "take 'em down" type temperature forecast on the front end of this. That was a good 1032mb high over QUE pressing SE before lifting off the the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 24 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Welcome to the 1980s! I like the trends for the Xmas system but you're in a better position than I am. I'm just glad it won't be in the 60s on Christmas Day again! Yup. I remember that decade all too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I don't think that is being avoided...it is just a question if we can CAD for most of the event before it finally rips northwest of us. I mean, stranger things have happened...maybe it tried to pull a 12/16/07 with better secondary development as we get closer, but that's a lot of energy trying to tear north and west. The only thing is with it cutting that far west i think its going to delay the CF coming thru until Christmas day instead of Christmas eve, That threat is a thread the needle as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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