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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, I don't either down this way but up north a different story, But it could minimize the damage to maybe a break even if the back end snow/mix shows up.

On the bright side, at least we have a promising potential from that Christmas storm. 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm starting to feel net gain up here from the cutter.

We need to actually get some QPF on the front end...it's been pretty paltry looking. But hopefully if it keeps trending flatter, we'll see the frontogenesis from the Quebec high start to squeeze out some QPF. 06z GFS looked pretty good there....but then again, I feel kind of dirty to keep referencing the GFS as the best solutions.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need to actually get some QPF on the front end...it's been pretty paltry looking. But hopefully if it keeps trending flatter, we'll see the frontogenesis from the Quebec high start to squeeze out some QPF. 06z GFS looked pretty good there....but then again, I feel kind of dirty to keep referencing the GFS as the best solutions.

Even the Euro op was 2-3" here and I'm not buying how rapidly it plows the sfc WF through.

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Just now, dryslot said:

As we see time and time again, The cold is under modeled on the front end and should continue to see some improvements going forward.

As we see time and time again, said improvements are likely to be trivial with regard to the vast majority of the forum populous.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The non-GFS guidance is still pretty hideous for the Xmas storm....the EPS did come back a little, so maybe if that can start trending, I'll be more optimistic, but I def need to see some more nudges from other guidance.

It’s likely more of an icing threat ending as snow. That low level cold should plow out ahead and undercut .. but cooling aloft is in question

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Saturday should wipe me clean.  Maybe some ugly swiss cheese left over that becomes a rink.  That's the worst.  I would rather get bare ground

Welcome to the 1980s! 

I like the trends for the Xmas system but you're in a better position than I am.  I'm just glad it won't be in the 60s on Christmas Day again!

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Just now, dryslot said:

12z GGEM has it too.

I might start jumping on the dendrite train soon....I'd like to see a bit better midlevels in terms of good snows, but the synoptics of the arctic high in Quebec definitely is a classic "take 'em down" type temperature forecast on the front end of this.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Primary going to cut thru the lakes this run on the 12z GFS though.

I don't think that is being avoided...it is just a question if we can CAD for most of the event before it finally rips northwest of us. I mean, stranger things have happened...maybe it tries to pull a 12/16/07 with better secondary development as we get closer, but that's a lot of energy trying to tear north and west.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I might start jumping on the dendrite train soon....I'd like to see a bit better midlevels in terms of good snows, but the synoptics of the arctic high in Quebec definitely is a classic "take 'em down" type temperature forecast on the front end of this.

That was a good 1032mb high over QUE pressing SE before lifting off the the NE

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think that is being avoided...it is just a question if we can CAD for most of the event before it finally rips northwest of us. I mean, stranger things have happened...maybe it tried to pull a 12/16/07 with better secondary development as we get closer, but that's a lot of energy trying to tear north and west.

The only thing is with it cutting that far west i think its going to delay the CF coming thru until Christmas day instead of Christmas eve, That threat is a thread the needle as it is.

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