SnowHole413 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Anything from week 4 on is terrible for the weeklies. Its the equivalent to the CFS week 4 and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just now, LurkerBoy said: We can work with “a bit”. What’re they like prior to week 4? Similar gradient pattern that's on week 2 of the EPS. Very cold northern tier with a se ridge. Its not a death pattern from week 4 onward but I wouldn't call it good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: They're a bit warm and ridgy in the east from week 4 onward. -wpo -pna +nao look. More like an inferno lol from good old Ben Noll from Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Jelly of the month club? It'll be the hap hap happiest gathering since Bing Crosby danced with Danny f*@#ing Kaye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, leo2000 said: More like an inferno lol from good old Ben Noll from Twitter. 2deg C AN at 850 is an inferno? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, leo2000 said: More like an inferno lol from good old Ben Noll from Twitter. 672 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Xmas looks nice on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hoth said: It'll be the hap hap happiest gathering since Bing Crosby danced with Danny f*@#ing Kaye. Fixed the Newel post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Xmas looks nice on the gefs Only a week out, definitely wont change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 672 lol Ya a month from now...we can’t seem to figure out what six days from now might bring...but we’re gonna worry about what a model shows 30 days from now?? Lurker and Leo...don’t worry yourselves with such nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: I don’t remember deep cover that day. And my point is this cold had snow 5-6 days beforehand but the snap didn’t come with snow in or out. There was a system that was progged on the front end but it farted. You had 8 to 12 OTG point being it was only 3 days. Last I remember long big cold, weeklies have 2 weeks -8 each, not having a good snowstorm was 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Seems like models had a positive trend today. Hopefully not the eye of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: When was the last time this decade we had big cold with no snow within 10 days I mean the chances of getting absolutely 0.0" of snow with big cold is pretty small... but if you take away snowfalls under 3-4" I bet we've seen quite a few but again maybe not as "within 10 days" is a big range. That can take up 20+ days of a month if you are looking at 10 days either side of a arctic snap. I feel like I've seen plenty of times when huge cold fails to deliver more than 3-4" in the past decade. Anyway, this is definitely more of a gradient La Nina pattern now... southern Quebec has been and will keep getting crushed it seems. It's so close that we are lucky in NNE to be reaping some benefits. Need that whole gradient to slide like 75 miles south and we'd be golden though. That's the risk in a Nina winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: I mean the chances of getting absolutely 0.0" of snow with big cold is pretty small... but if you take away snowfalls under 3-4" I bet we've seen quite a few but again maybe not as "within 10 days" is a big range. That can take up 20+ days of a month if you are looking at 10 days either side of a arctic snap. I feel like I've seen plenty of times when huge cold fails to deliver more than 3-4" in the past decade. Anyway, this is definitely more of a gradient La Nina pattern now... southern Quebec has been and will keep getting crushed it seems. It's so close that we are lucky in NNE to be reaping some benefits. Need that whole gradient to slide like 75 miles south and we'd be golden though. That's the risk in a Nina winter though. Yea you smoke cirrus a lot in big cold, you don't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Weeklies were nice through January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Weeklies were nice through January No they aren't. Week 4 onward is warm. Its not awful but its not a "nice pattern" for those who like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Weeklies were nice through January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: No they aren't. Week 4 onward is warm. Its not awful but its not a "nice pattern" for those who like snow. Well in a way hes right, -5 to -8 weeks 2/3 and +2 week 4 week 4 being mid Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Well in a way hes right, -5 to -8 weeks 2/3 and +2 week 4 week 4 being mid Jan I take through January as all the way to the end. Everyone should be aware that week 2 is cold. We already have that info via the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I take through January as all the way to the end. Everyone should be aware that week 2 is cold. We already have that info via the ensembles. Through all of Jan is different than through Jan just semantics I guess, but remember what the last week of Dec looked like 2 weeks ago, Ben Noll was quick to post that but conveniently forget when the Thursday update flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Through all of Jan is different than through Jan just semantics I guess, but remember what the last week of Dec looked like 2 weeks ago, Ben Noll was quick to post that but conveniently forget when the Thursday update flipped. The checked the weeklies from 2 weeks ago it looks like they properly forecasted troughing in the east? Obviously subdued on amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Looks like a little bit better position for that LP for the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The checked the weeklies from 2 weeks ago it looks like they properly forecasted troughing in the east? Obviously subdued on amplitude. They probably got it 4 weeks ago. They do usually dumb stuff down though. So if they show a pig ridge at week 4-5 on a consistent basis it’s a decent chance you’re going to see some sort of insanely amplified pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Predicting the Euro trends colder and on our way to snow for Christmas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 We’re all at Clarke’s. Will and Scott don’t think week 4 is that bad. Max heights north is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 672 is the new 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea you smoke cirrus a lot in big cold, you don't count. Haha true enough... if I lived and worked where you do I'd be rooting to take my chances with deep cold every single time. It's funny but that's how diverse our sub-forum is. If I'm within 1 county of the ocean, I'd be going for the coldest possible outcome I can. The risk of suppression depression is there but at the same time not really compared to the rest of us. How many times has the south coast come away with good snows while 75% of New England is smoking cirrus or seeing dim sun during those patterns...even in a mid-Atlantic pattern you are getting in on it usually. And that takes a cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Haha true enough... if I lived and worked where you do I'd be rooting to take my chances with deep cold every single time. It's funny but that's how diverse our sub-forum is. If I'm within 1 county of the ocean, I'd be going for the coldest possible outcome I can. The risk of suppression depression is there but at the same time not really compared to the rest of us. How many times has the south coast come away with good snows while 75% of New England is smoking cirrus or seeing dim sun during those patterns...even in a mid-Atlantic pattern you are getting in on it usually. And that takes a cold air mass. Yep the further south you are the more you need deep cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: We’re all at Clarke’s. Will and Scott don’t think week 4 is that bad. Max heights north is ok. They’re also wasted . The models tonight are like girls back in the day to them. Beer goggles. Ugly runs look like Mila Kunis tonight and tomorrow they’ll look like Mike Francesca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: We’re all at Clarke’s. Will and Scott don’t think week 4 is that bad. Max heights north is ok. Give Scooter another shot, he will think week 4 looks even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.