Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Waaaaaaaaaay ahead of ourselves.....but for educational purposes, hypothetically speaking....it could slow down as H5 closes off, but I was more alluding to the rate of max intensification with regard to the mid level lows. We won't have to worry about a decaying CCB/deformation zone this go around....rather the challenge will be getting it to ignite soon enough. Plenty of tim to change. We nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We nuke These type of events are how someone gets 30" in 12 hours....odds are that doesn't happen, and if it does, it doesn't have to be in sne.....but that is how you pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Earlier ignition is always a tough task for west of 91. This does have a dynamic ULL look across the ohio valley though, at first glance.....it has similarities to the big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: These type of events are how someone gets 30" in 12 hours....odds are that doesn't happen, and if it does, it doesn't have to be in sne.....but that is how you pull that off. Ray, would this storm if it comes together follow the same "route" that the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, 512high said: Ray, would this storm if it comes together follow the same "route" that the blizzard? It could....bit too early of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Earlier ignition is always a tough task for west of 91. This does have a dynamic ULL look across the ohio valley though, at first glance.....it has similarities to the big ones. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18z GEFS really wash the trough out..strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But if it was.. is it just for you? LOL honestly just focus on any threat first. That would be my first priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 18z GEFS really wash the trough out..strange. It’s consistent up until 120 then only a few members blow up. The rest are all over the place, prob why the trough just washes out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s consistent up until 120 then only a few members blow up. The rest are all over the place, prob why the trough just washes out like that. Makes sense. I would interpret the fact that the GEFS are in agreement on a strong trough through hour 120 as a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 That’s a healthy trough at hr 114. This is the kinda setup where you spin up a bomb or get a “wish we lived at h5” ULL dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS is going to deliever big time this run. GGEM was a little disjointed, but still got its act together enough for a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Eh, GFS didn't quite wind it up like I was expecting...looked really good at 132-138....but then kind of kept it open a little more. An advisory event this run. Still a very good look overall though at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The Tues-Weds system, Gets going a little late on the 0z GFS this run, Was good here in NNE but a lighter event south into CNE and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/01/teleconnector-convergence-on-january-17.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: The Tues-Weds system, Gets going a little late on the 0z GFS this run, Was good here in NNE but a lighter event south into CNE and SNE. I'm 50/50 on whether it gets going soon enough for us...I was more confident in the blizzard. The PNA ridge is de amplifying throughout the origin of the system....99 different model variations on this one coming up...and I hope a whiff ain't one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a healthy trough at hr 114. This is the kinda setup where you spin up a bomb or get a “wish we lived at h5” ULL dissapointment. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 H5 tracks a hair too far for to the north my liking on the GFS, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Way amped up on the EURO. So amped it rains for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Pretty nice signal on both ensembles which is what all you should really care about this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Yeah just the Euro overamp bias . With the upgrade always has one crazy amped up run only to correct itself next few. Case in point Saturday’s 50’s and cutter to MSS turned into a ice/snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 eura gfs split would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 As to next week: in some respects, this present modeling tone is a slightly lower amplitude variation of the blizzard a few days ago. Looking at the details of the GEFs, you have a lead southern wave being rocket around the periphery of the trough, ... again too fast for middle/ext range global numerical models to handle stream interactions, being a question here. Again, we have a surplus of gradient. The balanced geostrophic wind component everywhere becomes a shearing/negation factor to certain behaviors when it's fast. Lot of eye-glazer tech reasons there. But, it would not shock me if it's a hand wringer again until we get into a range where discrete physical assessment (SSTS, convective feedbacks/latent heat load balancing... ) and gunk can be more precisely modeled. That covers the if/when there is any phasing potential. As is, ..the southern stream wave is very weak. It has been in the last three to four days since this thing first got sniffed out. Unlike the blizzard, this one has NOT yet EVER had a stronger southern wave. Which isn't to say one won't eventually be more properly sampled and so forth... but, to this point, the wave is so weak it's almost negligible... Nonetheless, almost is not total, and it's passing through lower Manitoba and MT...right in there around 96 hours, entices the N stream mechanics to collapse south, a total evolution that is more or less identifiable depending on which run one uses. Of course, everyone knows what happens next. The Euro is a classic blue bomb juggernaut. That's a 10:1 20"er if I ever saw one... Totally different impact complexion compared to that fuzzy gob stopper cob-web blizzard last week. I like how the 0C 850 gets to the Pike, then collapse south like a cheap date when that 500 caves in for a almost 18 DM... That's hallmark signal for 1/8 mile vis parachutes with lightning if I ever saw one. But we have our dreams... I'll tell ya one thing... if you are a winter storm enthusiasts, this is probably the best imaginable way there is to run a thaw! Two days of this...two days of that? So we kill today and tomorrow...but if we end up with a 1/2" accretion in the interior on Saturday, then melon ball the temperatures under freezing for three days and cap it with a 10 to 20" storm, I'd still say ur batting average is pretty sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 There is a chance of a euro solution owed to dearth of N atl blocking, but I doubt it the progressive flow and waning PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 06Z GFS with a tiny jackpot, crazy bomb spot in Maine for Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 That has an IVT look to it as the low just pivots to the NE over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: That has an IVT look to it as the low just pivots to the NE over that area. you beat me to it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is a chance of a euro solution owed to dearth of N atl blocking, but I doubt it the progressive flow and waning PNA ridge. There are a couple features I see that would help. I think what we'd like to see this current storm come further E so it can beat down the W Atl ridge some more which would in turn allow for the follow up wave to dig some more and also the ULL circulating S of AK pinwheeling storms around it seems to be messing with the PNA ridging out W. If one of those can pinwheel around shunting the ridge E some we could see some better trough orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, codfishsnowman said: you beat me to it lol The models over the last couple days have done that over various areas, In the end i think you will end up with more of a coastal low once the models figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Man, Tip is is right. Euro is a wet snow bomb esp for the west crowd. Considering it likes to get nam like amp happy, we in good shape. Fun tracking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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