RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: I also counted 22 Euro Ensemble members with a low northwest of Albany on Saturday including some as far west as Cleveland and Pittsburgh. How many east? and did you use a calculator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t think you do seasonal or at least you dont tell us that you do. I don’t. I do enjoy talking about it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t. I do enjoy talking about it though. Same with me. Mostly crap shoot at 2-3 month leads but you can gain some slight skill if you're really good. Guys who get about 55-60% accuracy with any type of sample size rake in some serious bank. Anyways, weeklies def look awful for week 3/4. Hopefully they are wrong, which is def possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I don't like how the 2m temp anomalies and 850mb temp anomalies on wxbell are so different and seemingly unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 m temps are slightly below normal but 850s are well above. And I don't think it's the right pattern to pull that off consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: There is a week of WAN but with EPO rebuilding could be very active after the thaw especially CNE, a 07/08 look again with a 93/94 mix We would take in NNE, borderline would probably be relatively close, which at least increases the excitement. The brutal cold and dry is fun for its novelty but becomes old quicker. This winter has seemed to run on the colder side though, might be better leaning that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Same with me. Mostly crap shoot at 2-3 month leads but you can gain some slight skill if you're really good. Guys who get about 55-60% accuracy with any type of sample size rake in some serious bank. Anyways, weeklies def look awful for week 3/4. Hopefully they are wrong, which is def possible. Really? That sucks. Right around the 40th anniversary of '78 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Really? That sucks. Right around the 40th anniversary of '78 too. Well week 4 shows almost no skill so I wouldn't sweat it too much. Week 3 has some skill, but it's still obviously prone to huge errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 What exactly are they showing? A full-blown +EPO/-PNA/+NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Certainly possible guidance is struggling in shifting around higher heights in the arctic after a stout period of a -epo. I dunno, I’ll take it one system at a time and not bite my nails off to low skilled weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I buy the awful look....+EPO/RNA shift were expected mid season....I'm going to do a post on two divergent paths and a look at where we go from here tmw night, but winter should recover....just not as quickly as some think/hope. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS sagged back SE a bit, but still not much frozen outside of far NNE...does get some into CNE late in the storm. Though I suspect the actual amount of freezing or frozen would likely be much greater with that sfc low trying to squeeze over SE MA. GGEM was still a healthy ice storm look. Verbatim 2m temps were kind of warm, but that is typical for that model...the synoptics scream huge ice storm on that run. Need to keep the southern stream unphased with the northern stream to get a more wintry scenario. Not staying up for the Euro, but we'll see if it continues what 12z started hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I buy the awful look....+EPO/RNA shift were expected mid season....I'm going to do a post on two divergent paths and a look at where we go from here tmw night, but winter should recover....just not as quickly as some think/hope. JMHO. I'll buy what you're selling. Everything has gone to a T wrt your winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I'll buy what you're selling. Everything has gone to a T wrt your winter outlook. Ideally, I'll miss on the next 5-6 weeks, then start hitting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Here are my thoughts moving forward. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/01/dichotomous-january-thaws-offer-insight.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro....."we thaw"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro....."we thaw"... We sping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Only thing we can hope for is a colder solution somehow verifying on Saturday and perhaps a smaller event middle of next week during the transient cold shot, overall pattern is pretty meh. Friday is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here are my thoughts moving forward. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/01/dichotomous-january-thaws-offer-insight.html You're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 WPC still humping a significant mixed precip event for CNE NNE, and a heavy rain event for SNE. Has the surface low go across SNE I believe. GYX doesn't seem concerned at all. Seems to me strong HP to the NW and high pressure in Quebec argues colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 We flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We flood Kevin said we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 It seems like we have a little window for a pure snow event between MLK Day and the longer duration warm spell. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Watch colder trends continue today for Saturday after Friday wave. No changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Watch colder trends continue today for Saturday after Friday wave. No changes Enjoy the 50s and rain Friday and Saturday, pack will be gone for all come Sunday and this is just the beginning of the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Enjoy the 50s and rain Friday and Saturday, pack will be gone for all come Sunday and this is just the beginning of the torch Your posts are laughable. Your forum thinks you’re a moron lol. Quoting this to bump it when we’re snow/ ice Sat Pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Your posts are laughable. Your forum thinks you’re a moron lol. Quoting this to bump it when we’re snow/ ice Sat Pm What's your forecast for the game? I'll bump it Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks like the 6z GFS tries to flip it to snow here on the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Warmer trends on all guidance overnight except the GFS. Not what was needed to see a wintry solution this weekend. Still time obviously but that needs to reverse fairly quickly. Too much phasing with the southern stream. Need to see it more cutoff and separate going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 This is the worst thing ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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