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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're losing the EPO soon.

Still pretty stout though for this weekend.

 

Interesting that all global models now show the cold press ahead of the southern stream. Multi-model support is usually a good thing for increased confidence. We'll see if we can trend this a bit more and we may introduce snow into the equation if we can. Otherwise, that could be horrendous icing for a lot of people...a high to the northwest is what you want to see to get icing to the coast. The ageo component will be easily offshore.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Could see this end up moving more towards a SWFE if we can get that cold to press even sooner then modeled. Which seems to have been the case this winter already as its gets under modeled until we get closer to the event.

Anything that hasn’t interacted with the Gulf Stream this winter has ultimately verified weaker inside 5-7 days so I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re correct in that  

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still pretty stout though for this weekend.

 

Interesting that all global models now show the cold press ahead of the southern stream. Multi-model support is usually a good thing for increased confidence. We'll see if we can trend this a bit more and we may introduce snow into the equation if we can. Otherwise, that could be horrendous icing for a lot of people...a high to the northwest is what you want to see to get icing to the coast. The ageo component will be easily offshore.

Yes...agreed.

Luke, yes...we lose the EPO after that as presently modeled.

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3 hours ago, MetHerb said:

How about a metal detector?  I had to do that one year when my son left something out.  I borrowed a metal detector and viola!

I actually rented one to look for them.  It turned out that they were in the huge pile at the edge of the green.  I don't know that I even checked it but I remember going around the green in the dark in sub 10F weather trying to find the keys through 20+ inches of snow.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And for mods or anyone, is the map I posted allowed?  It’s from the free stuff

All of the weather.us stuff is fine...just not the other pay sites. Maue is fine with maps being posted on social media so we’re letting his slide as well.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS trending opposite direction...trying to go full cutter...that's a few runs in a row now for the GFS while the other guidance is trending colder.

I didn’t see a trend opposite. It’s more amped early like the euro, but the high is stronger so it ends up further southeast around our latitude. Looks more like both euro and gfs are meeting somewhere in the middle from where they were 48 hrs ago...

GFS prob over corrected here. 

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