weathafella Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 This system reminds of a similar storm in March of 1996. Rain to ice to sleet to snow with the end results a foot is snow or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Let's see if this is just a blip run. Euro hadn't really hinted at this before But other guidance did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 You start to wonder if we can keep Friday cooler too. Like a 35-40 rain instead of 45-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: But other guidance did. Yeah we'll have to see...maybe Euro was last to the party this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Let's see if this is just a blip run. Euro hadn't really hinted at this before Euro usually hangs back s/w in the southwest, Looks like it got ejected further to the ESE this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 GGEM had a similar look to this as well towards an ice event, This has already happened a couple times this winter where we had cutters modeled in the day 5-6 range only to get dampened out and end up further to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we'll have to see...maybe Euro was last to the party this time. Gefs showed this for days. People were saying this was different than Xmas setup and a 3 day 60 degree state cleaner.. etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gefs showed this for days. People were saying this was different than Xmas setup and a 3 day 60 degree state cleaner.. etc etc It still is different...we're not avoiding the warm sector on Thursday/Friday. We're going to torch for a time. In pre-Xmas, we never got warm sectored. This setup is dependent on sweeping through the cold front ahead of the southern stream...which could set the stage for significant winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 EPS look a little east of the op with the low, but fairly similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: But other guidance did. Yeah... but then the GFS has backed off for SNE... If the Euro has it overnight I will give it more credence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Could see this end up moving more towards a SWFE if we can get that cold to press even sooner then modeled. Which seems to have been the case this winter already as its gets under modeled until we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It still is different...we're not avoiding the warm sector on Thursday/Friday. We're going to torch for a time. In pre-Xmas, we never got warm sectored. This setup is dependent on sweeping through the cold front ahead of the southern stream...which could set the stage for significant winter precip. I’m not sold on 2 days of 50’s. I could certainly see this going to a cold rain pre ice instead of pack wiping out torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Could see this end up moving more towards a SWFE if we can get that cold to press even sooner then modeled. Which seems to have been the case this winter already as its gets under modeled until we get closer to the event. It is definitely still within the envelope of solutions...but we need the trend to continue with no setbacks tonight. We are going to be inside of 4 days by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not sold on 2 days of 50’s. I couid certainly see this going to cold rain pre ice I'm not sure how long 50s will happen, but we're getting them. We won't avoid them in this setup unless there is a catastrophic model failure. My guess is we get pretty torchy by Thursday evening and stay that way all day Friday. I suppose if it rains, we could "cool down" to like a 46-49F rain. But same difference. It's a torch for 2nd week of January and a snow eater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Upon closer inspection this would be ice everywhere except south coast. Even south of Pike it’s 32 or below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 If that lowlevel cold starts bottling up in VT you almost wonder if it can drain down the CT river valley and flip BDL/HFD to ZR while the hilltops stay a 34F -RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Upon closer inspection this would be ice everywhere except south coast. Even south of Pike it’s 32 or below Except that the map you posted shows 1/3rd to almost 1/2 of SNE not below freezing, Beyond just the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 For CT Blizz... much of CT, all of RI, SE Mass above 32... and this was the coldest that I could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Except that the map you posted shows 1/3rd to almost 1/2 of SNE not below freezing, Beyond just the south coast. Yeah, Basically south of the pike above freezing as was mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For CT Blizz... much of CT, all of RI, SE Mass above 32... and this was the coldest that I could find. See the map from Phil that I posted. Only IJD south . Hills would be coldest in that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For CT Blizz... much of CT, all of RI, SE Mass above 32... and this was the coldest that I could find. That's below freezing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: See the map from Phil that I posted. Only IJD south . Hills would be coldest in that setup Except that is not what Phil's map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Except that is not what Phil's map shows. Silly, Garth - you post a map and then describe what it was supposed to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: See the map from Phil that I posted. Only IJD south . Hills would be coldest in that setup Away from the coast means pretty far inland. Your hood and NW CT look cold briefly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 EPS looks similar to op. Concerning trend today regarding ice, with a stronger disturbance and stronger and better positioned Canadian HP.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 And for mods or anyone, is the map I posted allowed? It’s from the free stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: And for mods or anyone, is the map I posted allowed? It’s from the free stuff Free is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Except that is not what Phil's map shows. Umm yes. BDL to NE and NW Ct are at or below on that map. It’s 5 days out. Anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Yeah it doesn't really matter the details right now. That could show anyone south of CON above freezing on the next run easily. The fact that it made a large scale change with the high pressing down ahead of the wave coming up from the south is all you need to know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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