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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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Does anyone have a link for the most up to date MJO forecasts?  CPC link is a week old it seems.

Going forward ensembles suggest we have a mild period mid to late this week and then again mid next week for a longer spell.  The good news is you can already see the beginnning of a better pattern (reload) at the end of the run but it’s like d15 so I wouldn’t take that to the bank,

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27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Does anyone have a link for the most up to date MJO forecasts?  CPC link is a week old it seems.

Going forward ensembles suggest we have a mild period mid to late this week and then again mid next week for a longer spell.  The good news is you can already see the beginnning of a better pattern (reload) at the end of the run but it’s like d15 so I wouldn’t take that to the bank,

Looks like 50s max this first "thaw" and then the second one just slightly AN for a few days. 

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Will be interesting to see how the weekend trends, especially with high pressure to our nw.  Looks like a 1040 in the northern plains with an arm reaching over into ontario.  I am guessing that the upper levels are toast due to the substantial warming thurs and fri?  And the cold that seeps in is mostly lower level cold?  Thus, ice storm.  Seems like a mostly snow event is off the table for all but northern NNE.  But then some cold early next week and then the thaw starts late week?  And goes a week before high latitude blocking makes it interesting again?  That's all I can seem to glean.

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A decent amount of damage can be done between Thurs afternoon until Saturday afternoon.  SW winds, 40 degree overnight low, fog and an inch of rain.  Will damage the pack in the fields but the woods will still be fairly deep I'd think.  Then some ice and maybe more snow to bullet proof for the thaw.  I just hope to get a pack of more than 3 feet at some point this winter.  I think my personal best is 34" a few years ago.  If we can emerge with 12+ after the thaw then I think there is a real shot.

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20 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A decent amount of damage can be done between Thurs afternoon until Saturday afternoon.  SW winds, 40 degree overnight low, fog and an inch of rain.  Will damage the pack in the fields but the woods will still be fairly deep I'd think.  Then some ice and maybe more snow to bullet proof for the thaw.  I just hope to get a pack of more than 3 feet at some point this winter.  I think my personal best is 34" a few years ago.  If we can emerge with 12+ after the thaw then I think there is a real shot.

I think we'll hold off the really warm stuff up here until sometime Friday...then we'll pop to 45-50F in the afternoon. The follow up system will be pretty wet, but as of now it looks like we'll advect some cold in here ahead of it...enough for a cold rain. Then we wait and see if we can backdoor some below freezing air in the low levels before it completely exits.

I have less snow in the woods than in the yard. Usually the woods makes gains when the solar issues become a problem. We're obviously nowhere near that point yet. Still lots of ice in the trees too although the majority of it has sublimated away. My pack is at 22" right now. Rain and 40s will knock it down a bit, but there's 3-4" of liquid in that pack...probably about 6:1. Over time the old stuff trends toward 3-5:1. I think having over a foot left is a good bet.

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45 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A decent amount of damage can be done between Thurs afternoon until Saturday afternoon.  SW winds, 40 degree overnight low, fog and an inch of rain.  Will damage the pack in the fields but the woods will still be fairly deep I'd think.  Then some ice and maybe more snow to bullet proof for the thaw.  I just hope to get a pack of more than 3 feet at some point this winter.  I think my personal best is 34" a few years ago.  If we can emerge with 12+ after the thaw then I think there is a real shot.

Yes. "we" will all be working hard to help you achieve this goal. 

:weenie: 

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