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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like 3-6" for Jay Peak, that's why no one cares.

3-6" for 3-6 people.

:lol: epic.

 

seriosuly tho, we cannot lump the weather in SNE with the weather up here, just like the weather in  vermont is nothing like the weather in ottawa,, different ballgames the further N and  W you go, .........talk about typing the obvious hah.

looks like a snowy start, then wet and very warm, with a chance for a significant mix/wintry event to end the week, but id much rather take my chances in ottawa tho over my current location....  

 

 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I'm more interested than I thought I'd be in next weekend.  Reading different perspectives and looking at WPC.  WPC mentions building NW Atlantic ridging.  Also the maps show good high pressure to our northwest for next weekend and I think a bit of a banana high arching over from the plans into quebec.  You'd think 1) that high pressure might weaken or mute the impact of a Fri/Sat low, and 2) the current projected low track into southern new england for next Sun/Mon would correct south, and there is a good bit of qpf projected with that, and it could be a relatively slower mover.  That then makes me wonder about what happens after.  Everyone seems on board for a thaw the week of Jan 14, so I can buy that, but I wonder if ridging continues to build towards Greenland, the -EPO stays strong and we get a very very good pattern by the last week of January.  Maybe too optimistic, and I am a weenie, but it could happen.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'm more interested than I thought I'd be in next weekend.  Reading different perspectives and looking at WPC.  WPC mentions building NW Atlantic ridging.  Also the maps show good high pressure to our northwest for next weekend and I think a bit of a banana high arching over from the plans into quebec.  You'd think 1) that high pressure might weaken or mute the impact of a Fri/Sat low, and 2) the current projected low track into southern new england for next Sun/Mon would correct south, and there is a good bit of qpf projected with that, and it could be a relatively slower mover.  That then makes me wonder about what happens after.  Everyone seems on board for a thaw the week of Jan 14, so I can buy that, but I wonder if ridging continues to build towards Greenland, the -EPO stays strong and we get a very very good pattern by the last week of January.  Maybe too optimistic, and I am a weenie, but it could happen.

Gfs/Gefs shows that. Euro moving toward it

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone is gonna touch 60. Enjoy.

I'm not debating that.  I figure a thaw is coming. But not a meltdown, emotionally.  I don't mind a break in this weather and some warm sunny days.  The pack up here will survive that, and I'll enjoy my morning walks more.  I was just saying next weekend has an interesting look.  Do you think that is wrong?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'm not debating that.  I figure a thaw is coming. But not a meltdown, emotionally.  I don't mind a break in this weather and some warm sunny days.  The pack up here will survive that, and I'll enjoy my morning walks more.  I was just saying next weekend has an interesting look.  Do you think that is wrong?

Yeah sure in NNE. Maybe snow or ice. Or it could be a cutter.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'm not debating that.  I figure a thaw is coming. But not a meltdown, emotionally.  I don't mind a break in this weather and some warm sunny days.  The pack up here will survive that, and I'll enjoy my morning walks more.  I was just saying next weekend has an interesting look.  Do you think that is wrong?

Looks like record 850 temps for next weekend, definitely an interesting look.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like record 850 temps for next weekend, definitely an interesting look.

for the first part of the weekend it will be warm - Thurs to Sat.  read wpc:    

AS THE QUICKER NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH QUEBEC, COOLER AIR WILL SINK
INTO THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AN OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT (I.E. SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN) NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TRACK OF THE SFC LOW(S) FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES RAIN VS A WINTRY MIX. CONSENSUS
SEEMS TO FAVOR A TRACK JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS RIGHT NOW BUT
THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH COULD EASILY SQUASH THAT TRACK FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

   Actually I need a thaw and some rain to stop the constant drifting as my new driveway has 1000ft in an open field.  The plow guy has had to redo it twice a day this week.  Now we are hiring the town road agent to come in with a big truck and move the piles back for us.  Some liquid in the pack will save me money.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone is gonna touch 60. Enjoy.

What's more interesting is I'm sort of looking forward to it for a couple days.  

I'm just so over this cold.  It's just so draining to be on the mountain or walking the dog or getting groceries or whatever.  Life takes on a new meaning when you are dressed to go skiing but are only going to pick up a pizza in the evening.  

Time for a little break.  Temps in the 40s and we'll be sipping margaritas on the back deck. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What's more interesting is I'm sort of looking forward to it for a couple days.  

I'm just so over this cold.  It's just so draining to be on the mountain or walking the dog or getting groceries or whatever.  Life takes on a new meaning when you are dressed to go skiing but are only going to pick up a pizza in the evening.  

Time for a little break.  Temps in the 40s and we'll be sipping margaritas on the back deck. 

The ground is going to open up and crack like War of the worlds if we get into the 50s lol. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What's more interesting is I'm sort of looking forward to it for a couple days.  

I'm just so over this cold.  It's just so draining to be on the mountain or walking the dog or getting groceries or whatever.  Life takes on a new meaning when you are dressed to go skiing but are only going to pick up a pizza in the evening.  

Time for a little break.  Temps in the 40s and we'll be sipping margaritas on the back deck. 

Agreed.  While I like extreme cold as a curiosity, I’m done with it now for a while. Makes everyday things annoying.  Plus, lots of issues.  Cars, heating systems, slips, trips, falls.   What Jeff is dealing with has plagued many people I know the last week or so. I don’t want to ski in it or be outdoors for long periods.  One school in Fitchburg has been closed due to a pipe burst that destroyed the interior.

The ski areas must be taking it on the chin. Tons of snow, but few guests.  Wachusett has been empty. 

A day near 50sounds ok to me

 

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What's more interesting is I'm sort of looking forward to it for a couple days.  

I'm just so over this cold.  It's just so draining to be on the mountain or walking the dog or getting groceries or whatever.  Life takes on a new meaning when you are dressed to go skiing but are only going to pick up a pizza in the evening.  

Time for a little break.  Temps in the 40s and we'll be sipping margaritas on the back deck. 

I know it isn't the same down here but I am done with it...all the worry and everything else...trying to get two little dogs outside...nevermind clean up from the past storm

just give me 20s to 30s

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Seems short lived though. A 2 day thaw, a few days near normal, then another possible warmup.

We yo-yo 

Basically. Looks like another big warmup more prolonged in the 11-15 day. I guess for those clinging to their snowpack, they can hope for a sneaky scooter high to bring down some colder air this weekend. But I would not call it a high prob.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

WTF?  Thanks for giving me perspective that my week has not been so bad! 

 

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

Yikes!  You ok?  Furnace fixed?  That seems to be the biggest headache...

Steve, Knew about this one, This happened on Tuesday, As well as i was in Portland on my way back home and lost the serpentine belt and limped the truck off 295 in Freeport, No power steering and no brakes on the truck, 2 hrs trying to get towed then another 2 hrs getting it fixed.

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