Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 epic warmth on the Euro this run...well, last several ... continues. Looks like 25, 33, 29, 40, 58, 62, ?(front?)... That low in the OV ... that's real close to being a whole different reality if that arm of high pressure up there trends stronger (next weekend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Euro shows the NAO going negative next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: epic warmth on the Euro this run...well, last several ... continues. Looks like 25, 33, 29, 40, 58, 62, ?(front?)... That low in the OV ... that's real close to being a whole different reality if that arm of high pressure up there trends stronger (next weekend) Just like Xmas and same lead time. What looked like 60 for 2 days turned into 2 winter events. Should be no different this time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just like Xmas and same lead time. What looked like 60 for 2 days turned into 2 winter events. Should be no different this time . I’m not sure we hit 50s and 60s yet, but a warmup is in the works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Its going to get warmer than it did around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Decent signal for a 3-6" snowfall prior to the thaw. I know DIT has been on it but not much other chatter. EURO/NAM/GGEM arguing for 0.25-0.5" QPF... GFS a little less with .2-.4". These SW flow systems can be decent if you can get a standing wave going over the Adirondacks, downslope into the valley they upslope again into this area of the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Looks like 3-6" for Jay Peak, that's why no one cares. 3-6" for 3-6 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Yeah decent little 1-3” event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like 3-6" for Jay Peak, that's why no one cares. 3-6" for 3-6 people. Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Decent signal for a 3-6" snowfall prior to the thaw. I know DIT has been on it but not much other chatter. EURO/NAM/GGEM arguing for 0.25-0.5" QPF... GFS a little less with .2-.4". These SW flow systems can be decent if you can get a standing wave going over the Adirondacks, downslope into the valley they upslope again into this area of the Greens. Ya prolly 6-8" above 2500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah decent little 1-3” event Yes Euro on board for 2 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes Euro on board for 2 to 3 We’ll take it https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50766-snowicestorm-jan-8-9-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 Kevin, if it happened then it doesn’t mean it happens now. Eg: the background pattern should be milder this coming late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Kevin, if it happened then it doesn’t mean it happens now. Eg: the background pattern should be milder this coming late week. Of course, but the EPO is still negative and this isn’t a stemwinder into DET. There’s a sneaky HP up there , and it’s been trending stronger. I’m not saying it doesn’t get milder. Maybe a day near 40 or sonething late week, but not 50’s/60’s. Then there’s a snow event next weekend on both EPS and GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Euro has a negative AO and NAO next weekend I think the thaw is going to be brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like 3-6" for Jay Peak, that's why no one cares. 3-6" for 3-6 people. lol you'd almost think I've been around here long enough to know that... Thats probably 8-12" for Jay Peak and 3-6" for the rest of us . This set up can sometimes be better around Waterbury and Stowe if we can get slight SE SFC winds into the terrain here with SW flow aloft. However if the flow aloft is too strong it can also push the snow a bit too far downwind of the barrier and east of the RT 100 ski country corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Of course, but the EPO is still negative and this isn’t a stemwinder into DET. There’s a sneaky HP up there , and it’s been trending stronger. I’m not saying it doesn’t get milder. Maybe a day near 40 or sonething late week, but not 50’s/60’s. Then there’s a snow event next weekend on both EPS and GEFS GEFS didn't sniff out any 50's/60's throughout the run. The closest the 50's got was to DC late next week, and after that only to S VA late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Of course, but the EPO is still negative and this isn’t a stemwinder into DET. There’s a sneaky HP up there , and it’s been trending stronger. I’m not saying it doesn’t get milder. Maybe a day near 40 or sonething late week, but not 50’s/60’s. Then there’s a snow event next weekend on both EPS and GEFS Methinks you need to be realistic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Right back to the freezer again after next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: GEFS didn't sniff out any 50's/60's throughout the run. The closest the 50's got was to DC late next week, and after that only to S VA late in the run. 560 thicknesses and SW winds. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: Right back to the freezer again after next weekend... And then retorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: 560 thicknesses and SW winds. Enjoy. lol just "torching" dreams all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: And then retorch. Which will probably be short lived... maybe lasting about a week until last week of january.. but too far away to tell yet unless we can get a prolonged mild spell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol just "torching" dreams all afternoon. I mean unless people are hallucinating it looks like it’s going to get pretty darn warm for at least a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 There is some hope for maybe a wintry end to next weekend but I’m not holding out on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 A lot of weenies hanging onto the cliff by their fingernails...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Oh no, I might lose my snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 560 thicknesses and SW winds. Enjoy. Why such a disparity between the op and the ensemble? At 162 hrs the GFS op has 850's at 11C around Boston, yet the GEFS mean has the 850's at 0C. Is this a case where we put more weight on the op at 7 days out for thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean unless people are hallucinating it looks like it’s going to get pretty darn warm for at least a day. Haha you know I enjoy the bluntness. It does look like it's going to get warm for maybe two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 It's going to warm up this week folks. It's a matter of how much. ... I'd go with the lower of the available numbers for now, and give it another day before going big. Climatology mandates that in the least, but ...there's still some chance, seemingly lowering, that the more amped solution are too far N with the position of the front wed-fri. D4 is more inside the Euro's wheelhouse than outside of it, and that particular synopsis seems to want to evolve just the way D5 and 6 are...so, heh.Hard to go against. It's complex ... if the mixing ends up weaker, that warm up may glide over top and we only get partial realization down at the surface. If it does, ... by by fluffy snow pack. This low water content pack-a cobwebs will disperse with certain rapidity. EPS suggests the GGEM and GFS may be onto something over next weekend ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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