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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully...not overly optimistic about dodging the bullet again though.

Climo + persistence + deep snowpack    

FTW

 

Keep the system weak and we're good....

 

We'lll see how it pans out - funny thing is i referenced that euro run based on the D7 error, but the 18z GFS looks a lot like how the christmas weekend events panned out (if i remember correctly). First wave weak and warm (mostly wet); second wave mostly snow and more intense). Anyway, this will certainly change a bunch of times before then; at least it will be active...

 

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully...not overly optimistic about dodging the bullet again though.

Just bust out the weenie phrase regarding cutters... when a model shows a rainer at Day 5 or 7 it always seems to verify ;).

The number of storm tracks that bring rain vastly out-numbers the storm tracks that can bring good snows.

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah not sure what that's about. Snow pack doesn't mean a thing if you have a trough like the GFS/Euro have. 

Independently it doesn't mean much. Sure. That's why I'm looking at persistence and climo as well...

Additionally s/w on euro and GFS blows up early, near the southern plains - energy moving NE/ENE looks strung out and weak after...

 

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Is anyone else buying the moderate to major ice storm on the GFS for late next week + ?

It's actually not that far fetched within it's self

The synoptic evolution is pretty typical... Obscene cold rolls out with Rosby cycling ...that's a.  b   a warm intrusion faux' a thaw.   c   strong front cuts in underneath as confluence ripples through southern/SE Canada, sending a polar air mass into the bottom 200 mb ... viola!   d  is the ensuing overrunning event.  

GGEM has something sorta similar.    And the Euro's way outside it's wheelhouse so I don't wanna hear it.     

Seriously ...I suspect the GFS is too progressive and the Euro is too amplified.. 

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56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is anyone else buying the moderate to major ice storm on the GFS for late next week + ?

It's actually not that far fetched within it's self

The synoptic evolution is pretty typical... Obscene cold rolls out with Rosby cycling ...that's a.  b   a warm intrusion faux' a thaw.   c   strong front cuts in underneath as confluence ripples through southern/SE Canada, sending a polar air mass into the bottom 200 mb ... viola!   d  is the ensuing overrunning event.  

GGEM has something sorta similar.    And the Euro's way outside it's wheelhouse so I don't wanna hear it.     

Seriously ...I suspect the GFS is too progressive and the Euro is too amplified.. 

I’m buying 100% shares 

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27 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

00z GFS shows a significant winter storm next weekend.

Not getting my hopes up after what it showed for 7 days out on event just ended-  well ots, minimal qpf, and hardly a "bomb" as that term is defined.  If it's still there 3-4 days out, I'll bite.

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