Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Been a great start, eventually relaxation happens...we will get through this, together. Maybe this will help. Discrete and any time of the day:https://www.betterhelp.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 14 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It's just ridging in the east through week 4 at least thanks to troughing from AK into PAC NW. Might ease by wee 4. Not to say we can't have a winter storm or two, but enjoy the snow now. It doesn’t even look like a Niña pattern to me either. It more resembles a super Niño zonal pattern with periods where slightly more ridging occurs in the eastern half. Some of the EPS members 11-15 actually showed South Florida below normal which they haven’t been all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a lot of talk in the community of a 1989 kind of deal . Hope not There is going to be at least a good month of blah, but it will return....just got to hope we steal a storm or two in a crud pattern...which is very possible at peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: You start to wonder if this was it for winter. Does it just end after the storm next week? Maybe in your world lol This will be a brief thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a lot of talk in the community of a 1989 kind of deal . Hope not Even 1989-1990 returned for a time in late Feb and early Mar...a couple good snow events in there...and there were also a couple good events within the warm Jan/Feb pattern too. Anyways, the ensembles on all guidance (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) are unanimous in a hostile pattern mid month...hopefully they are wrong, but kind of hard to discount that type of agreement. Hopefully it doesn't last long if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 This is news to me. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a lot of talk in the community of a 1989 kind of deal . Hope not You deserve a Tony award....lol so dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Here is a snippet from an Isotherm post.. dated 12/31/17. This sums things up pretty well: I have no substantive alterations to this foregoing analysis. We may see a minor event in the coming 7 days, but meaningful storm threats are over for awhile most likely in my opinion. This will be a robust warming period with many days in the 50s later this month (potentially higher). There will be an incredible negative anomaly accumulated from the early month arctic air, but the second half of the month will do a very good job of eating away at that departure, possibly to the extent that we finish normal or even above normal. I don't believe this is the end of winter. I do however believe we are currently experiencing the peak of winter as far as combined snow and cold temperatures. I'll discuss the pattern down the road in more depth later, but a hint is that my thoughts are still essentially congruous with my winter outlook from November regarding progression; that is, I still like early-mid Feb for the second window for a potential larger storm. Glad to see the first window verified well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s stirring up emotions on purpose but any warm days has him severly concerned internally. This. Yesterday and Wednesday he was denying any big warm up...the flip has set in. We will warm...but winter will return..common sense should tell you that, especially on January 5th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Oh well, back to work I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Here is a snippet from an Isotherm post.. dated 12/31/17. This sums things up pretty well: I have no substantive alterations to this foregoing analysis. We may see a minor event in the coming 7 days, but meaningful storm threats are over for awhile most likely in my opinion. This will be a robust warming period with many days in the 50s later this month (potentially higher). There will be an incredible negative anomaly accumulated from the early month arctic air, but the second half of the month will do a very good job of eating away at that departure, possibly to the extent that we finish normal or even above normal. I don't believe this is the end of winter. I do however believe we are currently experiencing the peak of winter as far as combined snow and cold temperatures. I'll discuss the pattern down the road in more depth later, but a hint is that my thoughts are still essentially congruous with my winter outlook from November regarding progression; that is, I still like early-mid Feb for the second window for a potential larger storm. Glad to see the first window verified well. Well, he was wrong on the meaningful storm threats, and minor event in the next 7 days..cuz yesterday’s event had been a very meaningful threat; and was NOT A MINOR EVENT...so he was very wrong on that account. The other stuff is too far out to say obviously. I think a good thaw is coming and is in order. It will snow again this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Oh well, back to work I guess. Was hoping that would never happen... just days and weeks and months of continuous snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Even 1989-1990 returned for a time in late Feb and early Mar...a couple good snow events in there...and there were also a couple good events within the warm Jan/Feb pattern too. Anyways, the ensembles on all guidance (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) are unanimous in a hostile pattern mid month...hopefully they are wrong, but kind of hard to discount that type of agreement. Hopefully it doesn't last long if it happens. JB has it going from Jan 15- Feb 5. That would be tough to handle . Then he’s got it returning hard again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well, he was wrong on the meaningful storm threats, and minor event in the next 7 days..cuz yesterday’s event had been a very meaningful threat; and was NOT A MINOR EVENT...so he was very wrong on that account. The other stuff is too far out to say obviously. I think a good thaw is coming and is in order. It will snow again this winter. It would also be almost impossible at this point to finish above normal. The pattern probably wouldn’t start effectively torching til maybe 1/17 and it doesn’t look to me like a major SER type setup so I see no way anyone really in the eastern 1/3rd of the nation finishes above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said: You deserve a Tony award....lol so dramatic Same crap, different year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Same crap, different year. Are you retired now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: EURO with a nice 2-3" of rain over the next 10 days... here comes the thaw it looks like. Hoping for gradient pattern and just being on the right side of the gradient, lol. MLK weekend is generally a lock for rain or sub zero temps in ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 maybe we can sneak a wintry event in next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: maybe we can sneak a wintry event in next weekend. That's what I was thinking, maybe we get lucky even in a warmer regime. I will be in North Conway next weekend so chances are better up there I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 5 hours ago, powderfreak said: EURO with a nice 2-3" of rain over the next 10 days... here comes the thaw it looks like. Hoping for gradient pattern and just being on the right side of the gradient, lol. I think many can score a wintry event next weekend with that look, given the deep snow cover and background cold throughout Quebec and New England... That said, I don't like the way the teleconnections are "volatile" between now and then....If we end up with neutral to negative NAO, -AO, and +PNA, that 0z Euro/EPS run could wind up being way off and next weekend's storm look a lot different than what the 12z GEFS/0z EPS/0z euro currently show.... My early read for that system is for guidance to trend weaker and further southeast with that UL ridge over the east coast ... and beef up that high in Quebec... Plenty of time..We'll see...but I think the "great thaw" being advertised is going to be put off in much of new England through next weekend...We warm but we don't thaw (at least not yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That's what I was thinking, maybe we get lucky even in a warmer regime. I will be in North Conway next weekend so chances are better up there I am sure. Skiing/Snowboarding? Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: JB has it going from Jan 15- Feb 5. That would be tough to handle . Then he’s got it returning hard again 1995-96esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Skiing/Snowboarding? Where? Skiing, Wildcat is my preference but I am flexible depending on what my friends want to do, I am happy to ski Attitash if there is enough snow to keep conditions prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 We sping. We shut the blinds. (Or go outside and enjoy the nice weather) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I actually think the thaw calms down around the 25 then starts to reload for the ealy Feb trhough maybe mid Feb. Need to see how this really pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Epic torch late next week on euro....slow moving strung out cutter in the lakes gives us a couple days of 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 A good thaw is good when you had 2-3 good decent snowstorms than you reload. In my area we haven't had one decent snowstorm yet. Not even a moderate size event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Epic torch late next week on euro....slow moving strung out cutter in the lakes gives us a couple days of 50s. All of the globals seem to have it at that time period. It is probably coming, there goes the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Remember when it had 60’s Xmas eve/ day? Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Here is a snippet from an Isotherm post.. dated 12/31/17. This sums things up pretty well: I have no substantive alterations to this foregoing analysis. We may see a minor event in the coming 7 days, but meaningful storm threats are over for awhile most likely in my opinion. This will be a robust warming period with many days in the 50s later this month (potentially higher). There will be an incredible negative anomaly accumulated from the early month arctic air, but the second half of the month will do a very good job of eating away at that departure, possibly to the extent that we finish normal or even above normal. I don't believe this is the end of winter. I do however believe we are currently experiencing the peak of winter as far as combined snow and cold temperatures. I'll discuss the pattern down the road in more depth later, but a hint is that my thoughts are still essentially congruous with my winter outlook from November regarding progression; that is, I still like early-mid Feb for the second window for a potential larger storm. Glad to see the first window verified well. Agree entirely, aside from storm window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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