Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Growing signal for big time January thaw right on time in mid to later January. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ??? EPS past few runs in the long range. The cold lad goes into hiding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: EPS past few runs in the long range. The cold lad goes into hiding. I think mets have discussed that signal has muted and we just go kind of normal with overrunning as the -EPO comes right back . Shouldn’t be any torch or complete pack melt down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think mets have discussed that signal has muted and we just go kind of normal with overrunning as the -EPO comes right back . Shouldn’t be any torch or complete pack melt down Mike Ventrice agrees we thaw for a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think mets have discussed that signal has muted and we just go kind of normal with overrunning as the -EPO comes right back . Shouldn’t be any torch or complete pack melt down This is a newer signal. Get used to the idea of a few very mild days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: This is a newer signal. Get used to the idea of a few very mild days. I heard that in the days leading up to Xmas. We’ll toss for now for just a more normal regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I heard that in the days leading up to Xmas. We’ll toss for now for just a more normal regime We barely escaped then. Some places not far away were warm. I see GEFS/EPS allowing pacific jet to roar through the conus. Hopefully it’s wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 hours ago, weathafella said: Growing signal for big time January thaw right on time in mid to later January. Really ? with another cross agency PNA bulge showing up with minimal spread ... ? huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 hours ago, weathafella said: Growing signal for big time January thaw right on time in mid to later January. after all this cold, one would expect some warm up and pattern shift, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Icestorm signal on Euro early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: after all this cold, one would expect some warm up and pattern shift, right? I was just gonna add ... in a relative, sort of sensibly meaningful way ...anything above this will certainly seem that way. But, what " is " a thaw ? Is it a pattern relaxation and warming... or, does it need to warm enough to melt everything and muddy up the Earth. For that matter, you can have partial thaws. You can have them that last for 12 hours because of a Lakes transit low that doesn't mean much more than that 12 hours - is that a thaw trophy foisting op? I don't know .. but, I do think we are losing the intense gradient appeal, which may mean a more temperate form of winter expression, more mix contentions and/or dynamics reliant for events, with yes, days ... nudging 40 when it's sunny perhaps. The days of the big EPO spill will probably exhaust their Canadian supply by this time next week... Gotta get through the backside knife first - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: We barely escaped then. Some places not far away were warm. I see GEFS/EPS allowing pacific jet to roar through the conus. Hopefully it’s wrong. I think PAC jet will be a prevalent theme for the better part of about a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 EPS @ 850 colder throughout the complete 10 days than 12z was yesterday. Hopefully we can limit any rainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icestorm signal on Euro early next week line it up!!! We want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was just gonna add ... in a relative, sort of sensibly meaningful way ...anything above this will certainly seem that way. But, what " is " a thaw ? Is it a pattern relaxation and warming... or, does it need to warm enough to melt everything and muddy up the Earth. For that matter, you can have partial thaws. You can have them that last for 12 hours because of a Lakes transit low that doesn't mean much more than that 12 hours - is that a thaw trophy foisting op? I don't know .. but, I do think we are losing the intense gradient appeal, which may mean a more temperate form of winter expression, more mix contentions and/or dynamics reliant for events, with yes, days ... nudging 40 when it's sunny perhaps. The days of the big EPO spill will probably exhaust their Canadian supply by this time next week... Gotta get through the backside knife first - To me a thaw is when you can finally see the blacktop on your driveway. Scrape the sludge off the driveway and get back down to bare pavement. Beyond that I don't think we require massive amounts of snow loss to be considered a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Big time pattern change coming after next week. We melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Think we can sell that -EPO and +PNA roars right back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Big time pattern change coming after next week. We melt. No big torches on 18z GFS. Just normal cold for a change. At least through the 19th. Of course, this could all change at 0z, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: No big torches on 18z GFS. Just normal cold for a change. At least through the 19th. Of course, this could all change at 0z, lol. EPS is pretty warm. Strong signal IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Think we can sell that -EPO and +PNA roars right back I'm pretty confident that we have a significant thaw...hope I'm wrong, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm pretty confident that we have a significant thaw...hope I'm wrong, though. No doubt we mild up for a few days mid month..But this looks like one of those deals that keeps getting pushed out farther and farther and then just sort of mutes. There's at least 2 more snow events on Tuesday next week and late week. That takes out thru day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of mets saying it's gonna happen! Potentially 50-60f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Lots of mets saying it's gonna happen! Potentially 50-60f What's the projection for length of the warm up? Week? 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is pretty warm. Strong signal IMO. Thaw as regularly scheduled. Seasons in seasons. Nothing wrong with this at all, as long as it's not a long term deal. Been a great past 4 weeks of winter for most. Maybe squeak out one more winter event before a brief warm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It's interesting ... despite the GEF's derived indexes, the tenor in the operational versions is really in support ... In fact, if it were not for the snow pack (overrated negation...) and sun angle, that 00z Euro run ...woof - But even the operational GFS is bringing episodic warm bulges into at least the lower OV. It may be one of those circumstances where the ensemble mean (GEFs) go the other way ...eventually capitulating to the higher resolution operational runs - based in no small part on that fact that it's cross-guidance sourcing. That seems to wanna add confidence there... either way, the D9-10 has a monster ice storm in the lala GFS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's interesting ... despite the GEF's derived indexes, the tenor in the operational versions is really in support ... In fact, if it were not for the snow pack (overrated negation...) and sun angle, that 00z Euro run ...woof - But even the operational GFS is bringing episodic warm bulges into at least the lower OV. It may be one of those circumstances where the ensemble mean (GEFs) go the other way ...eventually capitulating to the higher resolution operational runs - based in no small part on that fact that it's cross-guidance sourcing. That seems to wanna add confidence there... either way, the D9-10 has a monster ice storm in the lala GFS ... You think we thaw big time Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: You think we thaw big time Tip? 'big time' requires a subjective definition that probably varies relative to the purchaser ...heh... but, 'some' relaxation of the cold has to happen. that's first off... secondly, sometimes these signals are over modeled? Particularly during regime changes ... and they will tend to take a bit longer to occur/set in. That's sort of the 'climate' of modeling more so than climate. Which, climatology of La Nina's (I think ?) favor early springs... Perhaps there is something sage in assuming that might start in at the mid way point, if perhaps in intervals anyway. pistol to head, I'd say that we'll return to normal, with the possibility of a one or two days going above - as to how much, I don't know. This assessment is subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 As I'm new to posting here: is it customary to panic now or later regarding the thaw? Does this mean that there will never be snow ever again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said: As I'm new to posting here: is it customary to panic now or later regarding the thaw? Does this mean that there will never be snow ever again? Correct, most models are indicating that New England is going to have the climate of Brownsville for the next several decades.....just kidding Why panic over something that you do not have any control over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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