codfishsnowman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Kuchera for the GGEM is insane... 30”+ in SE Conn time to go to the casinos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z GFS advertising our January thaw in the extended. Take with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18 hours ago, Hazey said: 18z GFS advertising our January thaw in the extended. Take with a grain of salt. Gets the thaw going with a cutter too, as it should be. Lol. So far in fantasy land I couldn't care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 All ensembles show a potentially milder period but a definite reload as well in 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: All ensembles show a potentially milder period but a definite reload as well in 11-15. Does it reload to these ball breaking temps? For my sanity please lie to me and say it' closer to average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Does it reload to these ball breaking temps? For my sanity please lie to me and say it' closer to average Verbatim no but this setup could easily come back. Rare that the cold blows its load for the season this early, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Finals for December: BOS: -4.0 ORH: -4.4 PVD: -3.2 BDL: -4.1 solid winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Finals for December: BOS: -4.0 ORH: -4.4 PVD: -3.2 BDL: -4.1 solid winter month. Some BTV CWA departures for comparison: 1V4... -6.3F MPV... -6.1F SLK... -5.5F BTV... -3.5F It has MVL as -7.5 but there's a bunch of missing data throughout the month so I'd toss that but it likely was in the -6F to -7F range. For St Johnsbury and Montpelier to have departures greater than -6 is pretty incredible. Not often you get winter months with -6 type departures. Also having the coldest locations with the largest negative departures...it was an incredibly cold month in the northern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Verbatim no but this setup could easily come back. Rare that the cold blows its load for the season this early, Note how AK and the West stays AN the entire run, we reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 don't look now but we may have to do all this again in 7 or 8 days ... should incrementally sacrifice more sanity ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like weeklies cooled of again slightly, but it’s definitely not gonna hold a candle up to this cold stretch. Some guidance is trying to get the pacific jet more active which may break down the ridging at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like weeklies cooled of again slightly, but it’s definitely not gonna hold a candle up to this cold stretch. Some guidance is trying to get the pacific jet more active which may break down the ridging at times. We'll trade cold temps for action/precip and chances for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Some BTV CWA departures for comparison: 1V4... -6.3F MPV... -6.1F SLK... -5.5F BTV... -3.5F It has MVL as -7.5 but there's a bunch of missing data throughout the month so I'd toss that but it likely was in the -6F to -7F range. For St Johnsbury and Montpelier to have departures greater than -6 is pretty incredible. Not often you get winter months with -6 type departures. Also having the coldest locations with the largest negative departures...it was an incredibly cold month in the northern mountains. Lol at BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol at BTV. Ha I almost wrote that -3.5 there might as well be -6 or -7 for the airport these days...given that it takes an act of God to get them below normal, much less a full 3.5 degrees below normal! But yeah when the other main climate stations in their CWA are -5F to -6.5F, they stand out at -3.5 there in BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like weeklies cooled of again slightly, but it’s definitely not gonna hold a candle up to this cold stretch. Some guidance is trying to get the pacific jet more active which may break down the ridging at times. I'm on the PAC jet train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm on the PAC jet train. Same here I think. We’ll take a break for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Another snowstorm Mon/ Tues next week with a shot of cold behind , but not like we’ve seen recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Seems like a decent shot we break the cold seige with a storm, then a thaw perhaps? Somehow though, with the -EPO so persistent and Canada so cold I would think we go snowy again until something big shifts the pattern, perhaps in February? 2 solid months of deep winter and then an early spring would suit me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think the Pacific jet will try but it will be met with some EPO resistance. I do think it will be active and given the ensembles trof ridge positions without NAO we’ll probably risk some warm cutters but I don’t think the overall AOB theme will change much for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think the Pacific jet will try but it will be met with some EPO resistance. I do think it will be active and given the ensembles trof ridge positions without NAO we’ll probably risk some warm cutters but I don’t think the overall AOB theme will change much for the foreseeable future. Yeah this isn’t some mild , winterless period. Just basically going from extreme cold to normal cold with swfe type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I think the Pacific jet will try but it will be met with some EPO resistance. I do think it will be active and given the ensembles trof ridge positions without NAO we’ll probably risk some warm cutters but I don’t think the overall AOB theme will change much for the foreseeable future. and perhaps we will pop an unexpected -Nao at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think it was yesterday or the day before that HM posted that Jan 10-15 would be active due to EPO wave break(?) and likely not as warm as the 500mb ridge in the east would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 12/29/2017 at 3:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: No reason to track this biatch anymore. I uninvested this morning Have you seen the NAM? Looks decent.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Have you seen the NAM? Looks decent.... Guess you missed the posts about doing it for all the big ones.. # whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Guess you missed the posts about doing it for all the big ones.. # whoosh Why deinvest if you already knew that? Interesting strategy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why deinvest if you already knew that? Interesting strategy... Whooshx2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whooshx2 Odd investment strategy. #getafinancialplanner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Lost in the blizzard is another snowstorm on Monday next week on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lost in the blizzard is another snowstorm on Monday next week on models It's a rather snowy run for NNE at least. I fly to RDU for the 13th/14th weekend visit so I'm expecting something historic to pop up around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Growing signal for big time January thaw right on time in mid to later January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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